Saturday, Jul. 05, 2008

Big year for almonds

Forecast for the nut has it surpassing all harvest projections

By CAROL REITER
creiter@mercedsun-star.com

The Almond Board of California has come out with a new forecast for this year's almond crop, and it's a big one.

The Modesto-based organization has estimated that the 2008-09 almond crop will be about 1.5 billion pounds. The forecast is based on 660,000 acres in the state.

The estimate is done by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's National Agricultural Statistics Service.

The forecast is up 3 percent from the May subjective forecast of 1.460 billion pounds. The new estimate, an objective one, was done by going into the orchards and counting the nuts, said Lori Gerhardt, industry relations communications coordinator for the Almond Board of California.

"The way it is done is samples are taken from 816 orchards. They take one branch and count the nuts," Gerhardt said. After the count is done, the kernels are sent to a lab where they are measured for weight, length, width, thickness and grade.

Gerhardt said that some of the reasons for the record-breaking crop are that the bee supply was plentiful, and it was one of the best bloom periods in recent years. Almonds bloom and are pollinated in February and March, and weather is key for both the trees and the bees. If it's too wet and cold, the bees won't pollinate the blossoms.

Mark Smith, a Merced County biologist and an almond grower, said that although local growers have been worried about water issues, almond farmers should be OK with this year's crop.

"As long as we don't get shorted, as long as we get the 2.5 acre-feet the MID has promised, we should be fine," Smith said.

The problem with water may show up next year, Smith said. If it is another dry year, the trees will be affected by shortages of water and nutrients. The trees are setting buds for next year's crop this year, and if they get enough water this year, they will put out a lot of buds. If the water isn't there next year, those trees won't produce the way they should.

Despite the fact that this is going to be the best year ever for almond production, Smith said that so far prices have stayed up.

"It may be a little less than last year, but within 5 cents, it looks like," he said.

In Merced County, almonds are the third biggest commodity, after milk and chickens.

In 2006, almonds were worth $268 million. California supplies 80 percent of the world's almonds, and 100 percent of the almonds consumed in the United States, Gerhardt said. Only 30 percent of almonds actually end up in American consumers' mouths -- 70 percent are sent overseas.

"The growing areas like China and India have shown lots of growth in demand for almonds," Gerhardt said.

In Merced County, growers have put in more trees in recent years, due to the fact that almonds have had a good return for farmers.

Smith said that so far, demand has kept up with supply, and as long as that stays in balance, the prices should stay stable.

"I think we'll be all right this year. Who ever thought we would be able to sell a billion pound crop? But we've done it," he said.

Reporter Carol Reiter can be reached at (209) 385-2486 or creiter@mercedsun-star.com.