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Friday, Jul. 03, 2009

The Miami Herald: Withdrawal attainable but major hurdles remain

Iraqi police officers danced atop their vehicles Tuesday as their convoys moved across the streets of Baghdad, jubilant over the withdrawal of American troops from Iraq's cities.

Most Americans share the sentiment because it means the day when the troops come home is closer. But don't celebrate yet.

American troop strength today stands at 130,000 and is scheduled to stay at that level until September.

The withdrawal from the cities is only the first of many hurdles the United States will face in order to meet the deadline for total withdrawal at the end of 2011.

The horrible increase in violence in the last few weeks is a painful reminder that meeting that deadline is no sure thing.

But even though the U.S. exit strategy remains a gamble, the deadline remains attainable -- as long as all parties with a stake in a peaceful, sovereign Iraq do their part to make it happen.

The most important actors in this struggle will be the Iraqi people themselves. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and the ruling Shia faction have done remarkably well so far to refrain from using revenge tactics against suspected Sunni terrorists who stepped up the violence as the withdrawal from the cities neared.

Iraqi forces also have shown restraint. They've trained for this moment for years. "I do believe they're ready," said Gen. Ray Odierno, the U.S. commander in Iraq who is a principal architect of the exit strategy.

In other areas, however, Maliki's government has fallen far short of its own goals and obligations to create a peaceful, stable and democratic Iraq.

The country still has no law to share revenues from oil production, a failure that could drive a stake into any plan to unite Iraq's Islamic and ethnic factions.

Oil is Iraq's principal source of wealth, and until Maliki and the country's leaders approve a sensible plan to share the spoils, Iraq is unlikely to have peace.

Then there are issues involving disputed territories.

Elsewhere in the region, U.S. allies -- most important, Saudi Arabia -- can do their part by condemning the Sunni violence in Iraq.

The Saudis fear that an independent Iraq led by Shia Muslims will make common cause with Iran's Shia-dominated govern- ment -- a Saudi rival for regional leadership -- may be justified, but as long as Iraq remains a powder keg, the entire region will remain unstable.

The last round of debate over Iraq in the Congress also threatened to under- mine the exit strategy.

Democrats who want the troops home now were unwilling to provide money to support the war, but the Obama admini- stration prevailed, with the support of most Republicans in the House.

Given all that the United States has invested in Iraq in terms of blood and treasure, failing to support the current withdrawal plan is a mistake.

Gen. Odierno and his immediate superior, Gen. David Petraeus, deserve recognition for crafting a strategy that has allowed the United States to get the upper hand over Iraqi insurgents after years of fighting.

The real credit, however, belongs to the men and women of the U.S. armed forces who have fought bravely in Iraq, sometimes for three and four tours of duty.