It wasn't a sure bet, but...
If the folks in Vegas had put a line on this game, the Merced boys basketball team would have been favored.
So when Marcus Knott's boys eked out a 57-55 win over Golden Valley on Friday evening, it wasn't totally unexpected.
The beginning, however, was.
First, one particular worth mentioning: Merced's bench did all the heavy-lifting in the team's 21st victory of the season, eventually absorbing all the crucial minutes and scoring more than half of the total points.
There was just one catch.
The bench was the starters.
Confused?
So was I.
Brian Cooksey, Tyrone Bowie and Marques Barron -- two of Merced's leading scorers and its top playmaker, pistons in Merced's dash to a fourth straight Central California Conference championship -- began the game on the pine.
It provided some tense moments early on. Golden Valley grabbed the early lead as Merced's reserves-turned-starters fought valiantly but stumbled all over themselves. For the longest time, it was 5-2 Golden Valley -- each team totaling more turnovers than points.
And then the peculiar lineup quandary was over, putting Merced hearts and minds at ease.
Cooksey entered at the 4-minute, 30-second mark of the first quarter and quickly went to work on a 21-point, 10-rebound night.
Bowie followed about a minute later and promptly picked up a steal, igniting Merced's uptempo offense.
And then Barron checked in with 2:20 left in the frame and immediately canned a 3-pointer to make it 10-10.
The three would help Merced build a lead as big as 15 points by the third quarter, and in the crunch with the game tied, Cooksey sealed the win with a layup off the glass with 15 seconds left.
But why the lineup change?
Team rules. Merced's three-headed monster sat out the start of Friday's contest because each missed time at practice this week.
"It wasn't like I just did that to do it," Knott said. "But no matter who we start, we expect them to come out and compete and play. ... We were inconsistent at the beginning, but you sort of expect that."
Was he worried, though?
Of course.
"Absolutely," Knott said. "It was abnormal, so, yes, always."
I understand team rules and how they maintain the balance and energy in a locker room. I also acknowledge that "team rules" is an awfully tame sounding point for a columnist.
But...
Tinkering with your lineup this late in the season seems dangerous, especially for a team searching for a 32-minute performance.
At full strength from the opening tip, maybe Merced builds a lead so big even it can't blow.
"It's become a big problem for us," senior Reggie Nelson said. "Sometimes we get too big-headed and think the game's over. We think we've won already. It's a concern. We know we can do a lot better.
"It's like the coaches said in the locker room, if we continue to play like this in the playoffs we'll be out in the first round."
And that's exactly why the lineup change comes under question.
It would seem, with two games left until the the the postseason, a team would want to set their lineup, develop that killer instinct and above all else, establish their authority as one of the Sac-Joaquin Section's top squads.
Merced, ranked No. 3 in the latest Division I power ratings, accomplished none of these on Friday.
It merely survived, which has to be troubling. With Buhach Colony and Los Banos left on the schedule, this was the closest game Merced was going to get to a playoff atmosphere.
But rules are rules and Knott stood steadfastly by them, squeezing out the kind of win that shaves years off your life.
In Vegas, they call that a gamble.
James Burns is sports editor/managing editor of the Sun-Star. He can be reached at jburns@mercedsun-star.com.