It would seem so easy to look ahead if you're Marcus Knott and the Merced boys basketball team.
Knott's boys enter the Sac-Joaquin Section Division I playoffs as the No. 2 seed with an impressive 23-4 record.
Most of the players on the team played significant roles on last year's team that reached the semifinals and played at Arco Arena.
It seems the pieces are there for another long run.
They bring a 12-game winning streak into their first-round game on Friday night against No. 15 Kennedy, which limps into the playoffs with a 10-16 record.
Seems like a mismatch, right?
You would think Merced could start ordering rooter buses and making travel arrangements for a second-round game at the University of the Pacific on Tuesday.
Not so fast, says Chris Farmer.
Just hearing the name Kennedy brings up awful memories.
Farmer was a senior on the 2003 Merced team that also went into the playoffs with dreams of playing at Arco Arena.
However, in the first round, No. 15 Kennedy turned that dream into a nightmare, upsetting No. 2 Merced 69-44.
"It still hurts, I guess," said Farmer, now 25 years old. "It was one of the hardest things I ever went through. It was hard because we were better than that.
"We were a really good basketball team and still, after all this time, that game is the only thing people remember about that season."
It's not like Farmer still goes to sleep thinking about that night.
But that doesn't mean it's still not a sore subject.
"I play in an adult league now and it's tough going in that (Merced) gym and looking up at the banners," Farmer said. "You can't help but think why isn't there a 2003 banner hanging in here?"
The one bonus of drawing Kennedy in the first round is Knott has a go-to cautionary tale.
You think that 2003 game has been brought up once or twice this week in practice?
The Merced players would be wise to listen.
Knott was Merced's freshmen coach back then.
The loss against Kennedy happened to be Vince Clemons' last game on the Merced bench.
"It was a funny game," Clemons said. "Ironically, we were able to get a video on Kennedy. Us coaches watched the video and Kennedy looked so pathetic, we didn't want to show the kids the video.
"I think it was the Thursday before the game that we showed them just the second half. We told them this won't be the same team you see during the game. The Kennedy players were just standing around, not doing anything.
"During the game, the look I could see in our kids' eyes, they realized it wasn't the same kids they saw in the video."
It was tough for Clemons to admit, but Kennedy just wanted it more.
The kids from Sacramento came into Merced with a chip on their shoulder.
They felt if they could shut down Farmer, they could shut down Merced.
It was the type of game where Kennedy made just about every shot it threw up. Kennedy got every loose ball and dominated the boards.
Just like that, Merced's season was over.
"I felt bad for the kids," Clemons said. "For me, it wasn't the way I wanted to go out, but unless you win a state championship, you're last game is going to be a loss.
"You just wish that loss would have been at Arco or somewhere like that. So it did leave a bitter taste in my mouth for a while."
After the game, Farmer told me he didn't want to come out of the locker room.
He was too embarrassed to face his home crowd.
"It was indescribable," Farmer said "You didn't want it to end and you couldn't imagine it ending like that.
"You feel like you let so many people down. Especially coach Clemons, because you knew it was possibly his last game and you know he didn't want it to end that way."
He's got some advice for Merced on Friday: "It's scary. Treat them like they're a No. 1 seed."
If you're a Merced fan, this is one time you don't want to see history repeat itself.
Shawn Jansen is a Sun-Star sports reporter. He can be reached at 385-2462 or via e-mail at sjansen@mercedsun-star.com.