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Sports - Super Bowl

Friday, Feb. 03, 2012

Greg Cote reveals Super Bowl prediction

- gcote@MiamiHerald.com

Bull’s-eyed an outright upset with Giants beating 49ers in the NFC Championship Game, but mistakenly thought Patriots would cover the seven points against the Ravens in the AFC game. If I’m on the mark with the Super Bowl pick, I’ll tie for my second-best playoff record straight up (I went 9-2 in 1997) and tie my best mark against the spread (was 8-3 in 2008). It’s amazing I keep track of all this stuff. Or sad, as the case may be. I think I need to get a real job.

OverallPct.Vs. SpreadPct.
Championships2-01.0001-1.500
Playoffs7-3.7007-3.700
Final 2011159-97.621127-105-24.547

SUPER BOWL | GIANTS (12-7) VS. PATRIOTS (15-3)

Line: NE by 3 1/2; Cote’s pick: NE 31-27; TV: 6:30 p.m. Sunday, NBC.

This is as even and as tough-to-predict a Super Bowl as we’ve had in years — at least for me. I pine for the good old days of SB routs and easy calls, the days when Thurman Thomas would misplace his helmet and the Bills would trail the Cowboys by 17 points before the national anthem had even ended. I admittedly don’t feel real confident picking the slightly favored Patriots here. Picking New England to cover doesn’t bother me; heck, only six of 45 previous Supers have been decided by three points (five times) or less (once). Picking New England AT ALL is what roils the tummy a bit, and part of that is the mystery of Rob Gronkowski’s left ankle. The Gronk is that important to Tom Brady and the Pats’ chances — especially against a Giants defense that has struggled defending tight ends at times, including the Niners’ Vernon Davis in the NFC title game. The pick assumes Gronkowski will play and be effective. Brady will need him as a quick-hit outlet guy to offset the Biggies’ mighty pass rush, and to outscore Eli Manning and all those weapons. Four years ago on this stage, Eli and NYG denied Brady and Bill Belichick not only a championship, but a perfect season. They won’t be perfect this time, but I’d bet the Pats will be champions.

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