SACRAMENTO -- As education groups battle over which California tax initiative would give the biggest boost to schools, advocates for low-income residents fear safety-net programs remain vulnerable no matter what happens on the ballot in November.
Proponents for three competing tax measures are focusing heavily on schools because voters prioritize education funding most. But it remains an open question how other programs will fare.
Gov. Jerry Brown's proposal raises several billion dollars for the state's general fund that he says would help protect schools from severe reductions. But he has proposed deep cuts in welfare-to-work and child care in the first year even if his taxes pass.
Two rival plans largely bypass the state to send money directly to schools and counties. They leave unanswered how the state would close an estimated $9.2 billion deficit through June 2013.
"If tax revenues aren't available to help balance the budget ... it puts pressure on higher education, on health and social service programs, on parks," said Jean Ross, executive director of the California Budget Project, which advocates for low-income residents. "It puts pressure on everything that isn't constitutionally protected."
Democratic lawmakers and powerful unions have signed on to Brown's plan because it could benefit the entire state budget while maintaining control over spending in the Capitol.
The Service Employees International Union State Council, which represents In-Home Supportive Services workers and government employees, has quietly endorsed the governor's proposal.
The California Teachers Association is backing the governor's plan, as well. The group prefers that education dollars flow through the state, where it is a principal player in budget talks. But President Dean E. Vogel also said last month that it was important to build a broader coalition by helping programs beyond education.
Michael Herald, a lobbyist with the Western Center on Law and Poverty, said he prefers taxing only the wealthy, as the "millionaires tax" does. But he fears that plan doesn't do enough for state programs beyond education.
The "millionaires tax" is spearheaded by the California Federation of Teachers and Courage Campaign, with recent support from the California Nurses Association. It directs 60 percent of funds to K-12 schools and higher education and nearly 40 percent to counties for public safety, road maintenance, health care, children and disabled residents.
CFT Secretary Treasurer Jeff Freitas said the plan makes up for past state budget cuts. Counties, for instance, could use their new funds to help low-income residents who have suffered from state reductions in social services.
But that would be an imperfect solution, suggests Ross, because some counties may avoid spending on welfare-to-work or In-Home Supportive Services.
Freitas said the governor's plan isn't particularly friendly to health and welfare in the first year. Brown has proposed slashing welfare-to-work and child care for the poor by $1.4 billion.
A third initiative, dubbed "Our Children, Our Future," is backed by wealthy civil rights attorney Molly Munger. The plan would raise at least $10 billion annually by hiking taxes on middle-class and wealthy earners along a sliding scale.