Election Day is tomorrow. Here’s what the final California polls are saying
Good morning and welcome to the A.M. Alert!
ELECTION DAY IS TOMORROW, WHAT DOES DO THE POLLS SAY
Vice President Kamala Harris is poised to win California by double-digits tomorrow, but not by as much as President Joe Biden won the state in 2020, according to the latest, and final, presidential poll from the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies before the election.
The poll, which shows Harris getting 57% support from likely voters to former President Donald Trump’s 35%, shows Harris well below Biden’s 29-point lead in ‘20. Specifically, the survey shows Harris support among Latino and Asian American voters, particularly men, at lower levels than what Biden had.
The poll also shows Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff continuing his huge lead over Republican retired baseball player Steve Garvey in the race for U.S. Senate. Schiff leads Garvey, 55% to 34%, according to the survey.
Berkeley IGS also surveyed three of the 10 measures on the ballot: Proposition 32, Proposition 33 and Proposition 36.
It found that Prop. 32, to raise the state’s minimum wage, is polling near even, with 47% of voters in favor. Prop. 33, to allow cities to enact rent control measures in their jurisdictions, on the other hand is tanking with just 35% saying they’ll vote yes and 45% saying they’re a no.
Prop. 36, which would reinstate felony penalties for certain drug- and theft-related criminal offenses, is still polling well, with 60% of likely voters saying they’re for it and just 25% saying they’re against it.
This marks the final California poll to come out before tomorrow’s election. Voting began in early October. The Berkeley IGS survey polled 4,341 Californians in English and Spanish between Oct. 22 and 28 who were either considered likely to vote or who already had voted.
REPORT WARNS PROPOSITION 32 WILL LEAD TO HIGHER COST OF LIVING
The firm Beacon Economics last week released an analysis of Prop. 32 that found that the proposed minimum wage hike would lead to an increased cost of living for Californians, particularly for lower-income households.
The ballot measure would raise the California minimum wage from $15 to $18.
According to the analysis, which you can read here, the wage increase would translate into a cost increase of hundreds of dollars per year, and would hit poorer areas of the state, such as Fresno and Riverside, harder than wealthier parts, like San Francisco.
The report pointed to Fresno’s cost of living, which has risen by an estimated $1,200 over the last decade due to statewide wage increases.
“Higher wages push up labor costs and those costs are eventually passed on to the consumer,” said report co-author and Beacon Economics founding partner Christopher Thornberg in a statement. “The strain of those higher prices hits lower-income workers hardest because they have to use more of their income for essential goods and services, and many of the industries most affected by minimum wage hikes are essential services.”
The Bee reached out to the Yes On 32 campaign for comment, but none was received by deadline.
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“After a summer and early fall of the unexpected and unprecedented, we end this election in a similar place to where we’ve been for the last eight years: with former President Donald Trump once again defining the contours of a presidential election.”
- Cook Political Report Executive Editor Amy Walter, in a statement discussing how the presidential race is projected as too close to call.
Best of The Bee:
Procrastinator’s guide to California’s 2024 election: What you need to know before you vote, via Andrew Sheeler.
Gavin Newsom says the Biden-Harris years have meant huge job increases. Is he right? Via David Lightman and Gillian Brassil.
Kamala Harris rallies Reno in final swing state push: ‘Never been so much at stake,’ via Nicole Nixon.
California parents’ rights activists say movement is growing, despite political setbacks, via Jenavieve Hatch.
Yes or no on Prop. 36? We fact check the drug treatment arguments on the California measure, via Nicole Nixon.
California Proposition 32’s wage hike threatened by a quiet campaign and economic concerns, via William Melhado.
This story was originally published November 4, 2024 at 4:55 AM with the headline "Election Day is tomorrow. Here’s what the final California polls are saying."