Merced, Valley experience large surges in deaths in pandemic compared to previous years

Merced County and the rest of the central San Joaquin Valley experienced greater proportional increases in deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic than many other California counties, relative to pre-pandemic averages.

Data released earlier this month by the state Department of Finance show that between July 1, 2020 and June 30, 2021, California as a whole saw a volume of “excess deaths” — deaths above the three-year pre-pandemic average — that was 28.5% greater than the annual figures for 2016-17, 2017-2018, and 2018-2019.

But in Fresno, Kings, Madera, Merced and Tulare counties, the differences in the number of deaths were even sharper, with no Valley county registering a surge of less than 30%:

In Merced County, for example, an average of 1,791 deaths occurred each year from mid-2016 through mid-2019. In 2019-2020, which includes the early months of the coronavirus pandemic in the region starting in March 2020, 1,904 deaths were reported (an increase of 6.3%), And in 2020-21, a period entirely blanketed by the ongoing pandemic, there were 2,382 deaths in 2020-21 (an increase of 33.0%).

For neighboring Valley counties, the Department of Finance data shows:

• Kings County: a three-year pre-pandemic average of 870 deaths per year, compared to 928 in 2019-2020 (a 6.7% increase) and 1,206 in 2020-21 (a 38.7% increase).
• Madera County: a three-year pre-pandemic average of 1,103 deaths per year, compared to 1,107 in 2019-20 (an increase of 0.4%) and 1,458 in 2020-21 (an increase of 32.2%).

• Fresno County, a three-year pre-pandemic average of 7,064 deaths per year, compared to 7,301 in 2019-20 (a 3.4% increase) and 9,561 deaths in 2020-21 (a 35.3% increase).

• Tulare County: a three-year pre-pandemic average of 3,083 deaths per year, compared to 3,376 in 2019-2020 (an increase of 9.5%) and 4,162 in 2020-21 (an increase of 35.0%).

While the increases correlate to the period in which the state and nation have been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Department of Finance’s Demographic Research Unit noted that excess deaths are not attributed to any single factor, including the coronavirus.

California has 58 counties, but some are sparsely populated and largely rural in nature. Among the 44 counties with populations of more than 50,000 people, Kings, Fresno, Tulare and Merced counties ranked in the top 10 for the largest increases in deaths last year compared to before the pandemic, and Madera County ranked 12th.

Statewide deaths in 2020-21 added up to 344,245, or about 76,400 higher than the pre-pandemic three-year average from 2016 through 2019. About 56,500 of those excess deaths were “separately associated with the COVID-19 pandemic,” according to the Department of Finance’s data release.

Deaths are one component of population change in a county, state or other geographic territory, along with births and migration into or out of an area.

This story was originally published December 28, 2021 at 8:31 AM.