Packers are favored but Steelers might have the edge
Super Bowl media and fans alike have had two weeks to break down every aspect of the big game. Green Bay is favored by about a field goal, but the Steelers hold a slight edge over the Packers in these seven major categories, 4-3:
Packers: They need to establish the run, although they're better at passing it. Brandon Jackson at times struggled to be the every-down replacement for injured Ryan Grant. But rookie James Starks, a sixth-round pick, has been the cavalry with his hell-bent style of running. His 263 yards are the most by a Packer in the playoffs since Dorsey Levens in '97.
Steelers: The NFL's 11th-best rushing team carries a lunch
pail to every game. But it's much more than just a
mind-set since Rashard Mendenhall hit his stride this postseason after scoring 13 times
on nearly 1,300 yards rushing
in 2010. Keep in mind that
Ben Roethlisberger still might be the toughest Steelers
player to bring down.
Edge: Steelers
Key stat: The
2010 Packers ranked a modest 18th vs. the run.
Top impact player: Mendenhall.
Packers: The best receiving corps in this game wears green-and-gold. It's a big reason the Pack is racking up nearly 370 yards per game in the playoffs, with Greg Jennings leading the way with 17 catches for 239 yards... but no TDs. Donald Driver has 44 career postseason grabs. These two guys, plus Jordy Nelson, help to make Aaron Rodgers into a 71 percent passer this postseason.
Steelers: Like Rodgers, Roethlisberger is adept at extending the pocket. (Note: they've scored three postseason rushing TDs -- Rodgers 2, Big Ben 1). But they win with their arms, and Roethlisberger is equally dangerous rolling to his right or his left. Mike Wallace and Hines Ward are Big Ben's leading receivers, although TE Heath Miller has been his favorite target this postseason: seven catches, 77 yards, one TD.
Edge: Packers
Key stat: Rodgers is the NFL's all-time career passer-efficiency leader with a 98.4 rating.
Top impact player: Rodgers.
Packers: Dom Capers has created a Super Bowl defense in a hurry. B.J. Raji is a force on the nose (and showed his nose for the end zone with an INT return in the NFC title game). Green Bay is second only to Pittsburgh in points allowed (15.0) for 2010. But while Packer opponents rushed for 114.9 yards
per game during the season, they've been held to 69.7 rushing yards during the postseason.
Steelers: The NFL's No. 1 run defense (62.8 yards) and No. 1 in fewest points allowed (14.5) features a colorful front line of Ziggy (Hood), Casey (Hampton) and The Beard (Brett Keisel). Dick LeBeau's 3-4 defense puts teams in a lot of third-and-longs. ILB James Farrior is the leading tackler. And no one in the NFL hits harder than OLB James Harrison. Just ask the NFL.
Edge: Steelers
Key stat: In the playoffs, the Steelers are allowing only 52.5 yards per game on the ground.
Top impact player: Harrison.
Packers: It's imperative for opposing QBs to locate No. 52, Clay Matthews, before every snap. Capers' 3-4 defense can turn players into playmakers, i.e., Matthews, LCB Charles Woodson and RCB Tramon Williams. Rookie corner Sam Shields had two INTs and a sack in the NFC title game. Williams ran back a 70-yard INT for a TD vs. Atlanta in the divisional round. These Packers finished the regular-season fifth against the pass, second in interceptions (24) and second in sacks (47).
Steelers: Defensive
Player of the Year Troy Polamalu is a worst-kept secret as an NFL game-changer. Think mini-linebacker with a cape. In the same secondary, RCB Ike Taylor is a standout cover man with electric speed. He should draw Jennings for much of the game. The Steelers posted a league-leading 48 sacks and 21 INTs in 2010.
Edge: Packers
Key stat: The Packers have five take-aways on the other team's opening drive of the second half alone.
Top impact player: Polamalu.
Packers: Punter Tim Masthay is hot. In his last nine games, he has been the No. 3 punter in the NFL (39.9-yard net) with a fourth-best 20 punts inside the 20. PK Mason Crosby has converted on 22 of 28 FGs, with a long of 58 yards. He also has had two blocked.
Steelers: PK Shaun Suisham should have his confidence. He's 16 of 18 on FGs, including the postseason. He's had three tours of duty for the Cowboys, including the '09 postseason in which he went 2-for-2 in a home playoff win and 1-for-3 in an elimination loss. Punter Jeremy Kapinos has bounced around 11 NFL camps. All four kickers in this game are making their Super Bowl debuts.
Edge: Packers
Key stat: At
Cowboys Stadium, Suisham is 5 for 8 on FG attempts.
Packers: Mike McCarthy deserves credit for keeping the wheels on the Packers over the past five must-win games. He has helped to foster a "chip on the shoulder" team mentality while riding the hot hand of Rodgers. McCarthy walks through the same door that once hung on Vince Lombardi's office, and he gets that.
Steelers: Mike Tomlin stands to become the first NFL coach to win two Super Bowls under age 40. He already is the youngest ever to win a Super Bowl (SB XLIII). He's tough, yet he has the respect of his players. Example: This week's TMZ news break on Roethlisberger in a local piano bar was forcibly defused by Tomlin before it could become a story.
Edge: Steelers
Key stat: Pittsburgh's wunderkind coach doesn't even turn 40 until March 15, 2012.
Packers: The Packers have been tested more severely than the Steelers. Five consecutive weeks, including the last three games on the road, they've faced either playoff denial or playoff elimination... and have won all five games (over the Giants, Bears,
Eagles, Falcons and Bears again) by a combined 145 to 71.
Steelers: Been here, done that... plenty. These players are familiar with the big stage as they try to win their third Super Bowl in six years (21-10 over the Seahawks in SB XL and 27-23 over the Cardinals in SB XLIII). As a franchise, Pittsburgh tries to capture a record seventh Lombardi Trophy in what is a record-tying eighth Super Bowl appearance.
Edge: Steelers
Key stat: The Packers have only two players with Super Bowl experience, and none with a ring.
This story was originally published February 4, 2011 at 6:47 PM with the headline "Packers are favored but Steelers might have the edge."