Valley could see moderate effects of El Niño in winter months
It could be a couple of months until the Valley sees any signs of El Niño, but meteorologists at the National Weather Service are predicting a medium chance of higher than average rainfall for California’s drought-stricken farmland.
Chances for a lot of rain are higher in the lower third of the state, said meteorologist Brian Ochs, but there still is an about 50 percent chance the Merced and Fresno areas could see more rainfall than usual.
The rain will be helpful, Ochs said, but not a drought-buster. “It will be helpful at least in the short term,” he said. “In the long term, since the last four years have seen well-below-average rainfall, it will take at least that long to catch up.”
The average rainfall for Merced from Oct. 1 to Sept. 30 is about 12.5 inches, he said.
A strong El Niño arrives about once every 20 years. Ocean temperatures show this one to be the second-strongest since such record keeping began in 1950, said Eric Boldt, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service. That would make it weaker than the El Niño of 1997-98 but stronger than the El Niño of 1982-83.
Since the last El Niño in 1997-98, Merced saw the most rain in 2004-05, with 19.5 inches, Ochs said.
California public agencies have been warned to prepare for large storms. Boldt said he can’t count all the meetings he’s been to with emergency managers and local officials.
“That’s been pushed hard, and people understand this is going to potentially be a bad winter for water issues,” he said.
In Merced County, public agencies took part in an annual flood fighting refresher course last week. Officials stressed that it’s important to be prepared – El Niño or no El Niño.
State officials are watching weather models and updating emergency plans, said Kelly Huston, deputy director with the Governor’s Office of Emergency Services.
“We worry that people won’t take it seriously because they’re so desperate for water,” Huston said. “If it downpours heavily over a short period of time, it’s going to be dangerous, not just a welcome relief they perceive to be helping the drought.”
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
This story was originally published October 13, 2015 at 5:00 PM with the headline "Valley could see moderate effects of El Niño in winter months."