Who can beat Donald Trump? That’s the central question for California Democrats, poll finds

California Democrats are largely sticking with Joe Biden despite the fact that many identify more closely with the health care views of other candidates, according to a poll released Monday night by the Public Policy Institute of California.

The survey of likely March 3, 2020 primary voters found the former vice president in a statistical tie in the Golden State with Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren. They registered 24 percent and 23 percent, respectively, followed closely by Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at 17 percent.

Electability proved to be the primary concern for respondents, with 55 percent of likely Democratic voters saying they care more about finding a candidate who can beat Trump than someone whose policy mirror theirs — up from the 48 percent PPIC reported in May.

“When people are evaluating candidates, they’re evaluating them on electability,” said Mark Baldassare, PPIC’s president.

The poll found that older voters are more likely to care about beating Trump, while young voters want a candidate whose views come closest to theirs. Two-thirds of those 45 years of age or older said electability is more important to them, while 54 percent of adults between the ages of 18 and 44 preferred a candidate’s policy positions.

Where the policies diverge

The top three Democrats looking to unseat President Donald Trump in 2020 have wildly different views on health care, which is the top issue among California Democrats, according to the poll.

Sanders and Warren favor a so-called Medicare for All system that would abolish the private health insurance market in favor of a government-run system. Biden, however, is pushing for a public option run by the federal government that any person could buy into if they so choose.

While undocumented immigrants would be fully covered in the proposal from Warren and Sanders, Biden wouldn’t give them government subsidies for a plan on the individual market, though he would double the funding for community health centers — locations immigrants often visit.

According to PPIC, 42 percent of likely California Democratic primary voters prefer a single-payer, government-run system run, while 36 percent would rather have a mix of government and private insurance. More than eight in 10 respondents said they’d like to see a government-administered health care plan, also known as a public option, that would compete with private health insurance plans and be available to all Americans.

The results signal that voters in California favor the approach from Warren and Sanders, even as their precise views are still forming.

“People are very concerned about health care costs and want to know more,” Baldassare said. “The whole issue is very complex and confusing for people. They’re ambivalent about the path forward because it’s hard for people to sit down and evaluate all the facts. More than anything, people are OK with having another option out there they could explore but are not convinced of what they want.”

Which candidates are electable?

Under California’s primary system, candidates must get at least 15 percent of the vote in a given congressional district to be eligible for a pledged delegate. Only Biden, Warren and Sanders currently meet the threshold.

California Sen. Kamala Harris matched the 8 percent PPIC previously recorded in September, while South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg earned a slight bump from 6 percent to 7 percent over the same time period. Entrepreneur Andrew Yang ranked sixth in California with 5 percent support, up from the 3 percent share of the vote he earned in September. No other candidate polled above 1 percent.

While the poll does give Biden a 1-point lead ahead of California’s 2020 primary election, Warren is in a prime position to win over more Californians. Twenty percent of respondents named her as their second choice, which tops the 16 percent for Biden and nearly mirrors the 19 percent for Sanders.

The margin of error for the 682 likely Democratic primary voters was 5.1 percentage points.

Overall, little has changed about candidate preferences since PPIC last conducted a statewide survey. Baldassare pointed to the nation’s focus on impeachment and campaigns devoting their more of their attention to early states like Iowa and New Hampshire than California.

“We’re not seeing much of a ground game in California, and a lot of the national news is being directed at the inquiry as opposed to the presidential primary,” Baldassare said.

Even so, some candidates are choosing to visit the state a lot more than others.

Of the 27 Democrats who have decided to run for president, 25 have appeared in California at least once. They’ve collectively made a total of 345 appearances, including 252 events and 93 fundraisers, across 144 trips.

Buttigieg has been the most active of the 2020 field, with 55 appearances. As he’s become more well-known, he’s steadily climbed in California from 5 percent in June to 7 percent in November, according to PPIC.

Warren has visited California the least of any top contender. Her 10 appearances in the state are far less than the 36 from Harris, 30 from Biden and 29 from Sanders.

This story was originally published November 18, 2019 at 9:00 PM with the headline "Who can beat Donald Trump? That’s the central question for California Democrats, poll finds."