How dangerous is it to be in a crowd in California? Map helps you calculate the risk
An online tool can predict your chances of exposure to the coronavirus in California.
The Georgia Institute of Technology and Applied Bioinformatics Laboratory created a tool that estimates the risk of being exposed to COVID-19 at a gathering in California depending on crowd size and other factors.
The tool uses data from the COVID Tracking Project and population data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
The chances of being exposed to the virus at a dinner party, which is around 10 people according to the tool, is 2.45% in California based on data on Tuesday.
The tool analyzes the risk if the pandemic is five or 10 times the “current incidence.”
For a dinner party, the chance of one person being infected would be 11.72% at five times and 22.19% at 10 times.
For a wedding reception, which the tool estimates to be around 100 people, the chance would be 21.97% based on Tuesday’s data and increases to 71.25% at five times and 91.86% at 10 times.
Large gatherings, including a concert, soccer match, or NFL game, have a higher risk of infection. A concert has a 91.63% chance of one person being infected and a soccer match or NFL game has over a 99% chance that someone would be infected, per Tuesday’s data.
The majority of California’s counties have less than a 75% chance of exposure in an event size of 50 people, according to data on Tuesday. In the state, 16 counties have a 75% to 99% chance of exposure and Imperial County has a 99% chance.
Imperial County has had more than 7,900 positive COVID-19 cases as of July 13. There are 959 active cases in the county.
The highest risk for getting infected with coronavirus comes with large gatherings “where it is difficult for individuals to remain spaced at least 6 feet apart and attendees travel from outside the local area,” according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
California has reported 8,358 new coronavirus cases as of July 13, bringing the state total to 329,162, according to the California Department of Public Health.
This story was originally published July 14, 2020 at 7:52 AM with the headline "How dangerous is it to be in a crowd in California? Map helps you calculate the risk."