Some California Democrats are in trouble after legislative redistricting

California’s redistricting commission nailed down the makeup of legislative districts Monday night, and the new boundaries could prompt some state legislators to move or lose their seats altogether.

Coupled with recent retirements from the Assembly, the makeup of the Legislature could change significantly in 2022 following the once-in-a-decade process. Democrats’ tight control on state government, however, is unlikely to change.

“If I had to bet, I would bet Republicans would be in a super-minority for the next decade,” said Matt Rexroad, a Republican campaign consultant.

Democrats currently control more than 75% of seats in the state Senate and Assembly, a solid block that insulates them from vetoes and allows them to pass legislation without support from Republicans.

But next year, legislative districts will look different based on the boundaries drawn by the non-partisan, independent redistricting commission over the past several months. In most other states, the Legislature, and by extension the party that controls the Legislature, controls the redistricting process.

The commission finished its work just a week shy of the Dec. 27 deadline. Now, candidates must reckon with the challenges of their new districts. Some may find themselves suddenly crowded into the same territory with fellow legislators, while others may encounter more unfriendly voters than they’re used to.

Unlike Congress, California state lawmakers are required to live in the districts they represent, which means if a legislator finds they want to run in a new district, they’ll have to physically move.

“Every cycle this time, people do a lot of changing their voter registration address,” Rexroad said.

Vulnerable lawmakers

Assembly District 35, represented by Assemblyman Jordan Cunningham, R-San Luis Obispo, is one that changed dramatically in this round of redistricting.

For the last 10 years, his district encompassed all of San Luis Obispo, Santa Maria, Arroyo Grande and down to Lompoc. The newest map, however, cuts off Santa Maria and Lompoc, and adds the liberal Monterey region, stretching all the way up to Pacific Grove and all of Monterey Bay.

“He’s in trouble,” Democratic consultant Andrew Acosta said of Cunningham’s prospects next year. “His district became a lot more Democratic.”

Assemblywoman Suzette Valladares, R-Santa Clarita, could also absorb more Democratic voters.

Assembly District 38, which Valladares was first won in 2020, consists of the Santa Clarita Valley, Simi Valley and parts of the San Fernando Valley.

The new boundaries for Valladares extend further east, absorbing the northernmost chunks of districts currently represented by Democratic Assemblywomen Laura Friedman and Luz Rivas.

But more Democratic voters may not be a political death sentence for Valladares, Rexroad noted.

“She’s a Latina. She is incredibly hardworking. She’s very articulate, very active in her in her her district. She has a lot of support the donor community,” Rexroad said. “Certainly the district they are proposing right now is harder than the one she had before... but if some of the other members of the Assembly Republican caucus were in that district, there wouldn’t be a chance in the world.”

Assemblyman Ken Cooley, D-Rancho Cordova, represented a district entirely encompassed in Sacramento County, representing most of the Eastern Sacramento suburbs. Under the new maps, his district shrinks in geographic size, losing most of the southern areas around Rancho Murieta and Sloughhouse, but absorbing the conservative Folsom area.

“That is a seat that I think could be one that could be in play if (Republicans) get a good candidate,” Acosta said.

Bill Wong, Democratic strategist and political director for Assembly Democrats, said the districts held by Cooley and Assemblyman Adam Gray, D-Merced, are now more competitive. Gray’s district, which previously included much of Modesto, now spans all the way down to Coalingua.

Who’s moving?

Legislators likely aren’t calling moving trucks just yet, but new maps show several lawmakers with overlapping districts, which could prompt some members to relocate.

In the Los Angeles area, Assemblyman Adrin Nazarian, a Toluca Lake Democrat, now occupies the same district as Assemblywoman Laura Friedman, D-Glendale.

Assemblyman Jim Patterson, R-Fresno, is redistricted in to what is now Assembly District 8. That new district will include much of the Fresno and Clovis area Patterson held before, but now merges into the same territory occupied by Assemblyman Frank Bigelow, R-O’Neals.

Assemblyman Evan Low, D-Campbell, holds Assembly District 28, just south of Assembly District 24, which is held by Assemblyman Marc Berman, D-Menlo Park. Under the new maps, however, those districts would overlap in one new district.

Wong pointed out that much of the new district is in Berman’s old one, and suggested Low might do well to move to Cupertino or Sunnyvale to run in a new district that no one currently holds.

“If I was Low, I would move,” Wong said.

On the state Senate side, Sen. Anna Caballero, D-Salinas, is now squarely in the same district as Sen. John Laird, D-Santa Cruz. It spans from San Luis Obispo up to Santa Cruz.

Sens. Connie Levya, D-Chino, and Susan Rubio, D-Baldwin Park, were in neighboring districts but now are also in the same one.

Sen. Josh Newman, D-Fullerton, is now pulled into the same district as Sen. Dave Min, D-Irvine.

In 2024, more than 30 state lawmakers will term out, including Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon, D-Lakewood, and Senate President Pro Tem Toni Atkins, D-San Diego. Already some legislators have declared their intentions not to run again in 2022, likely looking to run for other positions before they’re booted from their seat.

Other big names heading out in 2024: Labor champion Assemblywoman Lorena Gonzalez, D-San Diego; Sen. Steve Glazer, D-Orinda; Assemblyman Phil Ting, D-San Francisco; State Sen. Nancy Skinner, D-Berkeley.

Between redistricting, retirements and impending turnover, Sacramento could expect a power shakeup in the coming election cycles, but overall Democratic control is likely to change.

“(Democrats) have got a two-to-one voter advantage over Republicans, and that’s why, early on, I was like, ‘I’m not that concerned about redistricting’,” Wong said. “From a statistical standpoint, if 70% of your pie is apple, you’re going to cut a slice that’s going to be apple pie.”

This story was originally published December 20, 2021 at 9:23 PM with the headline "Some California Democrats are in trouble after legislative redistricting."