Will Northern California see another stormy winter this year? Here’s what experts predict
This summer’s heat seems to be easing down as temperatures decline to the 70s and 80s , a reminder that seasons are changing and winter is coming.
In June, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association officially declared an El Niño, predicting that it will strengthen in the northern hemisphere this winter. But it’s too soon to know exactly what this winter will look like for California.
Here’s what experts are predicting:
What is El Niño?
El Niño — and its counterpart La Niña — are weather phenomena that can impact temperatures and precipitation across the world. During El Niño, abnormally warm sea surface temperatures occur in the Pacific Ocean, while La Niña happens when sea temperatures are cooler than usual in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
But their effects on the weather are not totally predictable, said Tom Krabacher, professor of geography at Sacramento State. Krabacher teaches courses on climate.
“There are times when we’ve had El Niños and it’s had little or no effect, statistically or noticeably, on rainfall patterns, and the other times when it can have dramatic effects,” he said.
Generally, Southern California will see more rainfall during El Niño winters, while Northern California — as well as Oregon and Washington — will see a drier one, he said.
During La Niña, according to NOAA’s ENSO blog, atmospheric rivers are reduced in the West Coast, can be drier in the southern parts of the U.S. and wetter in the northern parts.
After facing a La Niña winter for three years straight and getting doused with a wet and snowy winter last year, El Niño is expected to take California on a different winter ride.
What is the forecast for winter 2023-2024?
Predictions are out for the next couple of months, but what will happen is still up in the air.
“The general sense is, at this point, that the odds are we’re going to have another rainy winter,” Krabacher said. “No one’s saying it’s going to be as strong as last year, but it’s not going to be a dry winter.”
“There’s no guarantees yet,” he said.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center releases three-month seasonal outlooks. The winter season, which officially begins Dec. 21, in Northern California is forecast to have an equal chance of being below or above normal precipitation, according to the December-January-February outlook. It was published Aug. 17.
“It’s a little uncertain,” Krabacher said about El Niño’s effect on rain in Northern California. “It can bring more rain or can have a relatively normal rain.” He said this is because the weather event shifts the storm tracks, pushing the rain farther south.
The Farmers’ Almanac predicts California will have “wintry temps” and be “seasonably stormy.” However, the weather periodical, which has been in circulation since 1818, says an “unusually snowy and wet winter” is predicted for the Pacific Northwest, which could push into California “translating into copious amounts of rain and snow across the entire Southwest.”
NOAA predicts temperatures in the region will be above normal for Northern California to the Central Coast, with the probability leaning more likely above normal in the northern parts of the state.
According to the National Weather Service, the average temperature from December to February for the Sacramento Executive Airport area ranges from around 47 to 51 degrees. Precipitation normals for these months range from 3.4 to 3.6 inches.
As for the region seeing extreme weather conditions, like a bomb cyclone, which is a very strong storm, that came over Northern California earlier this year, it’s too soon to tell.
Krabacher said these specific events are hard to predict more than about 10 days out.
This story was originally published August 30, 2023 at 5:00 AM with the headline "Will Northern California see another stormy winter this year? Here’s what experts predict."