Trump made ‘significant gains’ with Latino voters in 2024 election. Is it true for California?
Donald Trump has boosted his support among Latino voters for a third straight presidential campaign. Those inroads may even be seen in California.
The increase in Hispanic support, largely driven by men, is among reasons Trump won the presidential election Tuesday night against Vice President Kamala Harris. Early data shows a red shift in favor of Trump across the country by several demographic groups and geographic areas.
In three separate exit polls — NBC News, CNN and The Washington Post — Trump had received support from 46% of Hispanic voters. If the polling ends up accurate, then Trump would have the highest support for a Republican presidential candidate in decades.
Since the 2004 election — when 44% of Hispanics voted for President George W. Bush — the Latino vote has swung dramatically in favor of the Democratic Party. In 2012, roughly 71% of Hispanics voted for President Barack Obama.
But that support has lessened each presidential cycle since Trump first started to run for office. This election year, polling had shown that Latinos were dissatisfied with the economy.
“This is a more than a decade-long trend, and the Democratic Party needs a reckoning,” said Mike Madrid, a veteran Republican Latino voting expert and co-founder of the anti-Trump Lincoln Project. “There needs to be an honest discussion about whether or not they have a handle on what they used to consider a base vote, and most of the evidence suggests they do not.”
Mindy Romero, director of USC’s Center for Inclusive Democracy, cautioned that exit polls often have “methodological challenges” but said it was “clear” Trump had increased support among Latinos. The exit polls are also consistent with the pre-election polling, she added.
“It’s pretty safe to say that there were gains for the Republican Party in support from Latinos, and pretty significant gains,” Romero said, adding later that the gains are likely and not definitive.
Even in California, early data suggests that more Latinos backed Trump.
As of Wednesday night, he led in three of the four California counties with the highest percentages of Latinos — Tulare, Merced and Colusa. In Imperial Valley, which has the highest percentage of Latino residents in California, Harris led by eight percentage points.
Romero warned against making any definitive statements on California Latino voters before seeing a breakdown of county precinct data. California Latinos have largely remained rooted in the Democratic Party over the last three decades, reflecting the legacy of the anti-immigrant rhetoric Republicans employed in the 1990s.
“Tulare does have a high Latino population period, across the county, but there are pockets certainly that are more white, for instance,” Romero said.
This story was originally published November 7, 2024 at 5:00 AM with the headline "Trump made ‘significant gains’ with Latino voters in 2024 election. Is it true for California?."
