Over 40% of California voters don’t buy Gavin Newsom’s political pivot, poll says
More than 40% of California voters believe Gov. Gavin Newsom’s recent pivot to the center on issues such as transgender athletes and homelessness are either a betrayal of his principles or an effort to make himself more palatable to moderates as he mulls a run for national office, according to a new poll shared exclusively with The Sacramento Bee.
The poll included responses from 928 California voters reached online and via phone last week by nonpartisan firm Probolsky Research. The firm identifies itself as a “woman and Latina-owned market and opinion research firm” that conducts “research in business, government, non-profit, election, and association practice areas.” Firm president Adam Probolsky is a former GOP consultant now registered as no-party preference.
Twenty-six percent of respondents said they believed the governor’s recent remarks on transgender athletes in sports, order to break up homeless encampments, and sending state police to help local agencies crack down on violent crime were “a fake attempt to make people think he is changing, but he will never really change.”
That was in response to the question, “How would you characterize Governor Newsom’s recent actions and words?”
Respondents chose one of the following responses:
It’s a fake attempt to make people think he is changing, but he will never really change;
It is a betrayal of his values and the base that elected him;
It’s a valid strategy to reach out to more voters.
Another 17% of respondents said they thought Newsom had betrayed his values and the base that elected him. The poll’s margin of error was plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
Newsom, who made a name for himself supporting gay marriage years before its legalization, is believed to be considering a run for president in 2028 while trying to rehabilitate his party’s “toxic brand.”
Some politicians and political consultants have speculated that he’s trying to moderate his progressive attack-dog image to be competitive in battleground states like Iowa, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.
“Now he’s talking tough on crime, clearing homeless encampments, and weighing in on sports policy. But his record tells a different story,” said Republican Assembly Leader James Gallagher, R-Yuba City, in a statement to The Bee.
“This isn’t about helping Californians. It’s about trying to impress voters in New Hampshire. People can see the difference between a leader and a political actor.”
Newsom’s office forwarded a request for comment to his political spokesperson, Nathan Click, who did not immediately respond.
Political observers have speculated Newsom’s pivot is intended to enhance his prospects of running a national campaign outside the Golden State, but no polling suggests it has been effective.
What the polls say
The poll results show that state Democrats were starting to align more with Republicans on issues such as public safety, according to Probolsky. Nationally, Democrats have recently sided with Republicans on cultural issues like blocking trans participation in sports.
Still, 59% of likely California voters in 2028 said they believed Newsom should not run for president, according to an Emerson College poll published this month. Per that poll, Newsom held a 33% approval rating, versus 28% for President Donald Trump, whose popularity has declined since he took office in January.
Newsom has leaned in more to resisting the tariffs, which threaten to inflate consumer good prices and upend the economy, even as he awaits federal approval for wildfire disaster relief aid. Last week, he told reporters that he would stand “tall and firm” when Trump threatened California, while avoiding unnecessary fights or “virtue signaling.”
Over a third of respondents to Probolsky’s poll, or 37%, said they thought Newsom was adopting a “valid strategy to reach more voters” after the governor told conservative influencer Charlie Kirk last month on his podcast that trans athletes competing against cisgender people was “deeply unfair,” sparking backlash from LGBTQ allies and politicians. The rest reported being “unsure,” according to Probolsky.
The poll also asked individual questions about Newsom’s recent orders for local agencies to break up homeless encampments, his deployment of state police to help local police crack down on property crime and violent crime, and his remarks on trans athletes.
After the Supreme Court’s June 2024 decision allowing cities to fine or arrest homeless people who camp in public, Newsom ordered state agencies that fall to sweep encampments that posed a threat to “life, health and safety.”
About 70% of both Republicans and Democrats agreed with that order, according to the poll. Independents and non-party affiliates indicated slightly less support, at 54%. Overall, 66% supported his encampment crack down.
More Democrats (86%) than Republicans (76%) supported his push for California Highway Patrol officers to help local agencies crack down on organized crime, versus 70% of Independents and others not registered with either of the major parties, and 77% support overall.
And following a Pew survey that showed Americans’ hardening stances against allowing trans people to compete in sports, 78% of Republicans said they agreed with Newsom’s “unfairness” remark, versus 61% of Democrats and 62% of Independents others not registered with either of the major parties.
Legislative Republicans called upon the governor earlier this month to support their efforts to limit trans participation in sports and overturn anti-discrimination law. Almost all such efforts have failed due to the Legislature’s Democratic supermajority.
On Tuesday the governor bucked his own party after legislative Democrats advanced sex-trafficking legislation but blocked a proposal making it an automatic felony to purchase sex from a 16- or 17-year-old.
“The law should treat all sex predators who solicit minors the same — as a felony, regardless of the intended victim’s age. Full stop,” Newsom said in a statement.
This story was originally published April 30, 2025 at 11:00 AM with the headline "Over 40% of California voters don’t buy Gavin Newsom’s political pivot, poll says."
