Coronavirus death toll in US to reach 200,000 by fall, model says. What changed?
An influential University of Washington model used by the White House now forecasts a national coronavirus death toll of more than 200,000 by Oct. 1, The Washington Post reports.
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model predicts 201,129 deaths in the United States from coronavirus by Oct. 1.
It had earlier forecast 169,890 U.S. deaths by that date, McClatchy News previously reported.
“Increased mobility and premature relaxation of social distancing led to more infections, and we see it in Florida, Arizona, and other states,” said Ali Mokdad, who helped create the model, CNN reported. “This means more projected deaths.”
Daily coronavirus deaths in the United States are expected to decline through August before surging again in the fall, the model forecasts.
The model projects that Florida will be one of the worst-hit states, with its projected death toll rising from 6,559 to 18,675 by Oct. 1, The Washington Post reports.
California and Arizona also will see sharp increases in projected deaths, according to the publication.
“We’re going to get another 100,000 deaths by September,” said Dr. Ashish Jha, head of Harvard’s Global Health Institute, which also predicts 200,000 U.S. coronavirus deaths by September, CNN reports.
“So, that’s a catastrophic cost,” Jha said, according to the network. “We really do have to try to figure out how to bring the caseloads down from these scary levels.”
A University of Minnesota health expert also says the United States may be a long way from seeing the end of the coronavirus pandemic, Fox News reports.
“What we have to understand is that about 5% of the U.S. population has been infected to date with this virus — some locations slightly higher,” said Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, according to the network.
“This virus is not going to rest until it gets to about 60 or 70%,” Osterholm said in a Sunday interview. “So one way or another we’re going to see a lot of additional cases out there.”
More than 8 million cases of the COVID-19 virus have been confirmed worldwide with more than 437,000 deaths as of Tuesday, June 16, according to Johns Hopkins University. The United States has more than 2.1 million confirmed cases with more than 116,000 deaths.
The World Health Organization has declared coronavirus a global pandemic. In the United States, President Donald Trump has declared a national emergency.
This story was originally published June 16, 2020 at 8:19 AM with the headline "Coronavirus death toll in US to reach 200,000 by fall, model says. What changed?."