Should you gather for the holidays as omicron variant spreads? Experts advise caution
For many people, this holiday season was slated to mark their return to “normal” with loved ones, but the omicron coronavirus variant may force some families into the same tough decision making that robbed the “merry” from their Christmas last year.
COVID-19 cases were already rising before the new variant arrived, triggered by Thanksgiving gatherings. But omicron is giving coronavirus data trends a boost in the wrong direction. And early data shows the variant is giving vaccines a run for their money, too, infecting even the fully vaccinated — and boosted.
So, should you reconsider your Christmas plans? Require masks indoors? Ask for proof of vaccination?
“Personally, I’m reevaluating plans for the holidays,” Dr. Bronwyn MacInnis, director of pathogen genomic surveillance at the Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard University, told USA Today. “It’s the responsible thing to do and what feels right given the risk.”
“At the rate that (omicron) seems to be spreading, there isn’t a surveillance system on the planet truly that could keep up with it,” MacInnis said.
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Omicron has been detected in at least 36 states and more than 75 countries as of Dec. 15, Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said during a White House briefing. The delta variant remains the dominant version of the coronavirus in the U.S., comprising about 96% of cases, but omicron is now estimated to make up about 3%.
Some areas like New York and New Jersey fare worse; the CDC projects omicron represents about 13% of all cases there.
Early data shows the omicron variant spreads more quickly than delta, “with a doubling time of about two days,” Walensky said. Weekly averages of hospital admissions and deaths have increased by about 8% and 5%, respectively.
More than 802,000 people have died of COVID-19 in the U.S. as of Dec. 16, a Johns Hopkins University tracker shows.
“What does this mean for individuals and families as we head into the winter months — a time when families may be gathering with one another over the holidays? It means that it is vital for everyone to get vaccinated and boosted if they are eligible,” Walensky said during the briefing. “Given the increase in transmissibility, this also means continuing to be vigilant about masking in public indoor settings, in areas of substantial or high community transmission. And as of now, this represents about 90% of all counties in the United States.”
Holiday warnings apply to everyone, vaccinated or not
Studies show antibodies from initial COVID-19 vaccine doses naturally wane over time. Now, emerging evidence shows omicron can evade the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines to some degree — though booster shots offer antibody increases large enough to continue protecting you from severe disease.
Dr. Amesh Adalja, an infectious disease expert and senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, said “precautions and risk calculation are important” when deciding whether to gather with family and friends this Christmas.
“For the fully vaccinated, they are protected against severe disease from delta or omicron. For the unvaccinated, they will eventually be infected with omicron or delta or both,” Adalja told McClatchy News. “Testing of the unvaccinated, especially if more than one is attending a gathering, can lower risk.”
Dr. Leana Wen, an emergency physician and professor of health policy and management at George Washington University in D.C., told CNN you should consider three factors before holiday meet-ups.
First, what’s your health status and that of anyone gathering with you? For example, is everyone vaccinated? Are children going to attend? Has everyone been boosted?
Next, Wen suggests you think about what COVID-19 precautions party hosts will take.
“I’d feel a lot more comfortable if everyone is required to be vaccinated, and ideally is also boosted, and if proof of vaccination is asked at the door,” Wen, a CNN medical analyst, told the outlet. “Is the event indoors or outdoors? If it’s entirely indoors, will testing be required? Same-day home testing for all attendees will add an additional level of reassurance.”
Lastly, how important is the event to you? Is it worth the risk, especially if people with weakened immune systems who are vulnerable to severe COVID-19 will be there?
“It’s time to step back and reevaluate,” Dr. Amy Barczak, a professor of medicine at Harvard Medical School, told USA Today. “My family has changed our plans so that we are no longer going to be getting together with particularly vulnerable members of the family over the holidays the way we had been planning to do.”
Health experts also say it’s a good idea to take rapid antigen COVID-19 tests at home before gathering with others for the holidays, now that federal health officials have authorized several that you can buy.
However, the tests do come with some limitations.
They’re hard to find, generally less accurate than the standard PCR tests and costly — between about $10 and $40.
This story was originally published December 16, 2021 at 8:31 AM with the headline "Should you gather for the holidays as omicron variant spreads? Experts advise caution."
