Merced County welcomes more new residents — while overall California population declines
More Americans each year appear to be deeming the Golden State a bust, thanks in no small part to exorbitant housing costs and the search for economic opportunities elsewhere.
But while California’s longtime population boom slows to a sputter, Merced County is enticing more new residents compared to the state overall.
Merced was ranked fifth out of the state’s 58 counties for the highest percent increase in population between July 2019-20, according to the latest report by the California Department of Finance.
Merced County saw a 1.13% population increase, topped only by San Benito (1.19%), Yuba (1.32%), Glenn (1.50%) and El Dorado (1.69%) counties.
The report estimates that 284,761 residents called Merced County home as of July. That’s an increase of 3,169 people within the one year period.
California averaged just .05% growth. With reports dating back to 1900, that’s a new record low.
Residents seek lower cost of living
Experts pin California’s population decline on fewer births, increased deaths due to an aging population and the COVID-19 pandemic, lower international migration and higher migration out of the state, according to the report.
Migration into the state slowed especially during April to June when the first COVID-19 stay-at-home order was triggered. The COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent mandates and orders issued by Gov. Gavin Newsom are often cited as fueling the migration out of the state.
Continuing a trend that began in 2016, inland counties like Merced generally saw more population growth than their coastal counterparts.
To enjoy more freedom of space during stay-at-home orders, some former Bay Area residents switched to Merced County zip codes, UC Merced assistant professor of economics Rowena Gray said in an email to the Sun-Star.
A majority of coastal counties lost population. Five urban counties on the coast are the exception (Alameda, Contra Costa, San Diego, San Francisco and Santa Clara), but growth rates were slower compared to the prior year.
For the first time this decade, migration to most of the state’s largest counties declined as well. That includes Los Angeles, San Diego and Orange counties, among others.
While smaller and more rural Merced County welcomed new residents at higher rates, the county didn’t set a new record.
The county’s highest percent population change over the last decade was 1.6% growth during 2016-17, according to the report. Still, since then Merced County’s population has risen by 1% or more each year.
The demand for housing and climbing prices for homes have played a factor in the exodus as well — especially among coastal counties where housing prices have continued to soar.
Los Angeles County, for example, has a median price of a single-family home at $650,000. In turn, its population has decreased by 40,036.
But the typical home value in the City of Merced is roughly $285,365, according to Zillow.
“The longer-term factors are that house construction restarted in Merced in the last couple of years and homes are more affordable there than in other parts of the state,” Gray said in the email. “The university expansion and continued commitment to the area is also prompting people to buy homes as investments.”
UC Merced associate professor of economics Greg Wright concurred. As Bay Area prices grow intolerable and Merced County amenities improve, residents will likely continue to migrate inland, he said.
Whether drawn by the UC or motivated by other factors, Wright said more people coming to Merced County could further drive the local economy and promote a diversity of jobs.
“The community is becoming more productive, and maybe more entrepreneurial,” he said. “It could potentially be kind of a widespread gain to the community.”
Wright said that while people are becoming priced out of California, the sky-high prices are a sign that demand is still high.
“At the end of the day, it seems like there’s always more demand than supply . . . people want to live here.”
The Fresno Bee’s Bryant-Jon Anteola contributed to this report.
This story was originally published December 22, 2020 at 6:19 AM.
