Merced County officials predict ‘busy’ recall election, as mail-in ballots roll in
With two weeks until recall election day, the ballots that will determine whether Gov. Gavin Newsom maintains his gubernatorial seat are rolling in from across Merced County.
The local elections office has received about 21,300 ballots as of Tuesday, according to Merced County Registrar of Voters Darlene Ingersoll. Around 123,100 county residents are registered to vote.
Voter turnout — especially for infrequently held recall elections — is difficult to predict. But elections office officials project that at least half of Merced County’s registered voters will cast a ballot by the Sept. 14 election. “We think, based on our experience, it’s going to be over 50%,” Ingersoll said.
Election participation across the nation is typically highest during presidential elections and lower for primaries or other elections.
The November election that saw President Joe Biden eclipse former president Donald Trump marked Merced County’s highest level of voter participation to date with over 78% turnout, according to the elections office.
In contrast, the 2003 recall election that triumphed former governor Arnold Schwarzenegger drew just over 47% of Merced County voters to the polls.
About 91,100 residents were registered to vote back then. Of those who completed ballots, around 26,600 marked “yes” for the recall and 15,400 marked “no.” The statewide averages at the time were about 55% for the recall and 49% for Schwarzenegger.
Gubernatorial recall election: what to expect
The coming recall election has two questions on the ballot. The first is a “yes or no” question on whether to recall Newsom. The second question is a vote on who should be his replacement.
More than 50% of voters must answer “yes” to the recall before Newsom is replaced. Even those who vote “no” can pick a candidate on the second question.
Recall candidates don’t need a majority to win as long as they’re the top vote-getter in the election.
The Republican recall card is full with former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, Assemblymember Kevin Kiley and businessman John Cox. Those are some of the more visible candidates who have made multiple visits to the Fresno area, as well as conservative talk radio host Larry Elder, who is considered the front runner among Republicans.
There are 46 candidates on the ballot, including Democrat and YouTuber Kevin Paffrath and reality TV star Caitlyn Jenner, who is also a Republican.
California’s registered voters are 46% Democratic and 24% Republican. About 2 million people signed the recall petition.
Of the 22 million ballots sent out to registered voters in the state, about 4.1 million have come back, according to Political Data Inc., a voter information tracker. That is 18% of the registered voters in California.
Voting in Merced County
Election day typically triggers a big final ballot push, Ingersoll said. “We’ll get an influx, we believe,” she said. “It’s going to be busy.”
Ingersoll urged anyone voting by mail to ensure that their ballot envelope is signed and dated. She also recommended that residents create a voting plan so that they know how, when and where they intend to cast their ballot.
Thirteen voting assistance centers will be open throughout Merced County Sept. 11-14 for ballot drop-off, ballot replacement, conditional voting, accessible voting and language services.
There are also nine vote by mail drop-off locations where voters can take their ballots during regular business hours prior to election day. The Merced County Administration Building at 2222 M St. is a 24-hour access drop box.
The opening and processing of vote by mail ballots began Aug. 16 and will continue until all election results are tabulated and certified.
Semi-official election results will be released by the Merced County elections office on Sept. 14 shortly after 8 p.m. via hard copy, phone and online on the elections office’s website at www.mercedelections.org. The official canvass process will begin on Sept. 16 and continue daily until completed.
More information about voting in the recall election is available online at the Merced County elections office’s website. The elections office may also be contacted by phone at (209) 385-7541.
The Fresno Bee’s Thaddeus Miller contributed to this report.
