Homelessness ebbs and flows in Merced, San Joaquin Valley over the past two decades
In much the same way that the economy ebbs and flows, the homeless population in Merced and the central San Joaquin Valley also rises and falls with the times.
A review of homelessness data over the past 14 years reveals that in 2024, for example, homelessness in Merced County and Stanislaus counties was higher than at any point since 2007 and 2008, in the lead-up to the Great Recession.
According to the this year’s annual Point-in-Time survey, the 837 people counted as homeless in Merced County represented a 63% increase from 2018, when the county recorded 514 homeless people.
The Fresno/Madera Continuum of Care organization reported that it counted 4,493 homeless individuals, including 2,758 who were unsheltered and living on the streets, in its annual 2023 Point-in-Time survey, the most recent data available. The previous peak was 5,135, including 1,313 in shelters, in 2011.
Across the rest of the Valley, from Stanislaus County in the north to Kings and Tulare counties in the south, the patterns are similar.
More than 4,560 people were counted among the homeless, sheltered and unsheltered, in those counties in 2024, compared to more than 5,300 in 2007 and almost 5,100 in 2008.
In a region that already has higher levels of poverty and unemployment than most of the rest of California, the economy of Merced and the Valley is but one factor behind how or why people become homeless.
“Households living below the poverty level are at risk of becoming homeless,” according to the Merced County PIT report. “Because of their limited income, they frequently have to choose between paying their rent, mortgage, and other daily living costs, such as child care, food, clothing, healthcare, and transportation.”
According to the U.S. Department of Housing & Urban Development, the standard for housing affordability is that households should not spend more than 30% of their incomes on rent and utilities — regardless of whether that income level is high or low.
Almost 20% of households in Merced County were living below the poverty as of 2023, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. That represents “a substantial number of households that are at-risk of homelessness,” according to the Merced County PIT report.
“Many households can become homeless because of challenges, such as increases in rent, job loss, and rising healthcare costs,” the report stated. “In addition, personal experiences such as domestic violence, physical disability, mental illness, and substance abuse are also contributing factors to homelessness. Often, one or more of these experiences play a role in a household’s experience of homelessness.”
When the Valley’s economy is good, homeless can be expected to trend lower, and vice versa, notwithstanding other factors including mental illness or substance abuse.
In the 2023 PIT report by the Fresno/Madera Counties Continuum of Care, “many homeless adults reported experiencing a disability, including 36% who reported a substance abuse disorder and 33% who reported a mental health problem.”
The data from the Point-in-Time reports seem to reflect that. The homeless population dipped to its lowest level over the past 17 years in 2015 in Fresno and Madera counties, and in 2013 across the rest of the Valley. Since those years, the number of people living on the streets has generally been on the rise, with significant increases that align with the arrival of COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.
Not coincidentally, the numbers in shelters also climbed as California provided grants to cities and counties through efforts, such as Project Roomkey and Project Homekey, to increase the availability of shelter beds throughout the region.
In Fresno and Madera counties, for instance, the population of homeless in shelters nearly doubled in a single year: from 999 in 2021 to 1,878 in 2022. Valleywide, the sheltered homeless population grew from 1,600 in 2021 to 1,810 in 2022 and to 1,917 in 2023.
An ongoing shortage of affordable housing, in which rents are climbing higher while median household incomes remain stagnant, are also contributing to the hardships. A recent analysis by ApartmentList.com notes that nationwide, the number of renter households considered “rent-burdened” and paying more than 30% of their income on rent reached an all-time high in 2023. Across the U.S., an estimated 52% of renting households are cost-burdened. That’s about 22 million households.
“Since 2019, rents have grown faster than renter incomes in 82 of the nation’s 100 largest metros,” the report states.
The ApartmentList analysis also concluded that while Merced and the surrounding region tend to have more affordable housing costs than other California rental markets, many Valley counties’ renter cost-burden rates are higher than the U.S. average.
An estimated 59% of Merced-area households are considered “cost-burdened” renter households, meaning they pay more than 30% of their incomes on rent.
The ApartmentList report, based on 2023 U.S. Census Bureau data, also notes that the rent-burdened figures for other Valley counties are:
- 49.8% in the Modesto/Stanislaus County metropolitan area.
- 60% in the Fresno/Fresno County metropolitan area.
- 53.8% in the Hanford/Corcoran/Kings County metropolitan area.
- 52.5% in the Visalia/Tulare County metropolitan area.
“With more than half of renters (nationwide) spending an unhealthy share of their income on rent, it is clear that significant work must be done to alleviate a housing affordability crisis that has now extended to virtually every part of the country,” wrote Chris Salviati, a senior housing economist and author of the ApartmentList report.
