Political parties take stock of 16th Congressional District shocker

Not a single person steeped in the world of federal politics saw this coming.

Not the political pundits of the Washington Beltway. Not the National Republican Congressional Committee or its counterpart, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Not the deep-pocketed independent groups that shower cash on candidates in competitive races.

Not even, it seems, Jim Costa.

Now, for the second time in four years, the Fresno Democrat finds himself in a tight re-election campaign, having to hope that uncounted mail and provisional ballots in the 16th Congressional District will be enough to push him past Burrel dairy farmer Johnny Tacherra, his unheralded and lightly financed opponent.

“He (Costa) just got blindsided by an angry electorate,” said Allan Hoffenblum, a longtime Republican strategist.

With the Election Day ballot counting finished, Tacherra holds a slim 736-vote lead over Costa. In percentage terms, it is 50.5 percent to 49.5 percent.

But plenty of mail and provisional ballots remain to be counted, and those might save Costa, as they did in 2010 when he turned an 1,823-vote, election-night deficit into a 3,031-vote victory.

Still, it might take some luck, and former congressman and longtime Democratic Party stalwart Richard Lehman thinks it might not be as easy as 2010.

To win, Lehman figured, Fresno County’s part of the 16th District needs to have 2,500 more absentee and provisional ballots to count than Madera and Merced counties combined. If those votes break along the same percentage for Costa as the 16the District Fresno County votes counted so far, which is 62.5 percent, he would have enough votes to overtake Tacherra – barely.

If a third of the approximately 42,600 Fresno County mail and provisional ballots left to count are from the 16th District, its share would be around 14,200 ballots still to count. That means Madera and Merced counties combined could have no more than 11,700 16th District mail and provisional ballots left to tally for Lehman’s scenario to have a good chance of working out in Costa’s favor.

Fresno political consultant Tim Orman’s math doesn’t exactly jibe with Lehman’s, but his basic conclusions do. If there are 10,000 votes left to be counted in the Fresno County part of the 16th Congressional District, and 8,000 in Madera and Merced counties, Tacherra will win, Orman said, based on what each candidate has won among the votes already counted.

In Merced County, there are 5,757 mail and about 1,500 provisional ballots left to count, officials said late Wednesday. Madera County won’t know its count until Thursday. All of Merced County, but only a portion of Madera County, is in the 16th District.

Given turnout trends, especially the low Fresno County number, Orman thinks the odds favor Tacherra.

“There’s a better-than-good chance that we’re going to be talking about congressman Johnny Tacherra in January,” Orman said.

That Tacherra is even this far almost seems impossible, given his campaign. He had no campaign manager, only one paid staffer and two consultants. Beyond that, it was all volunteer work. When Tacherra would court a big-money donor, he said, they’d always ask about his campaign structure.

“I was afraid to tell them we’re on bare bones here,” he said. “And look where I’m at.”

Costa remains optimistic.

“We always knew this race would be close, and voter turnout was lower than we anticipated,” Costa said in a statement. “With thousands of absentee and provisional ballots outstanding in all three counties, this race is not over. I have always put my faith and trust in the voters of the Valley and we must ensure every vote is counted.”

This year, turnout was dismal, making the election more like a primary that features motivated party-base voters and almost always benefits Republicans. Gov. Jerry Brown lost every county in the Valley, Lehman said, and he didn’t make a lot of effort to help the rest of the ticket. Also, Costa’s polling estimated a higher turnout, which may have been why he seemingly was caught flat-footed by the results.

This story was originally published November 5, 2014 at 6:46 PM with the headline "Political parties take stock of 16th Congressional District shocker."