Merced state Assembly district among state’s most partisan

Voters in Merced County are more likely than most others to describe themselves as either Democrats or Republicans, bucking a widespread trend toward greater numbers of independent voters.

Across California, nearly one-quarter of residents declined to state a party preference when they registered to vote, which is an increase of nearly 3 percentage points from 2012, according to figures released by the secretary of state.

But in the 21st Assembly District, which encompasses Merced County and the southern end of Stanislaus County, only 19.8 percent of voters registered as “no party preference,” making the district one of the state’s most partisan.

Out of the 80 state Assembly districts, the most partisan – with rates of independent voters below 20 percent – are clustered in or near the San Joaquin Valley, including the 32nd (Bakersfield), 23rd (Fresno/Clovis), 12th (Modesto), 36th (Palmdale) and 26th (Visalia).

Independent voters were more likely to be found in districts with larger population centers such as in Southern California or the Bay Area. District 49, in northern Los Angeles County, tops the percentage of independent voters in the state with 33.5 percent. The district with the second-largest portion of those voters are in District 19, which surrounds the Golden Gate Bridge.

Nationally, 42 percent of voters identify as independent, a record high, according to a Gallup poll from January.

Alexander Theodoridis, a professor of political science at UC Merced, said party affiliation matters because voters registered with a political party are more likely to vote along party lines. Those voters also are more strident when it comes to issues seen as partisan, such as immigration, gun control, social issues and the size of government.

“Getting someone to say that they’re a partisan in their registration increases their partisan behavior,” he said. “Once people do say that they’re partisan, it sort of builds on itself and makes them more partisan.”

In Assembly District 21, Democrats outpace Republicans 41 percent to 35 percent, or 65,777 registered Democrats to 56,124 Republicans, according to the figures released in January. A total of 32,185 had no party preference. The American Independent Party had 3 percent of district voters and smaller parties such as the Green, Libertarian, and Peace and Freedom had less than 1 percent.

Theodoridis, whose research includes political behavior and psychology, said voters in districts that are more evenly divided by the two parties may feel more comfortable as a partisan voter than those who live in a district weighted to one side.

“An even party split gives people license to state their party preference,” he said.

They might be afraid to claim to be in the minority party in other, less evenly split districts, he said. Districts like 49 and 19 are weighted heavier on the Democratic side with 11 percent and 22 percent registered as Republican.

This year, voters must be registered as Republicans to vote in that party’s June presidential primary. The Democratic party, as well as Libertarian and other parties, allow no-party preference voters to cast ballots in those presidential primaries.

“On the Republican side it makes a difference, because it’s a closed primary,” he said. “So, in a district, there are probably more people registered as Republicans.”

This story was originally published March 22, 2016 at 5:49 PM with the headline "Merced state Assembly district among state’s most partisan."