Kash Patel's Odds of Being Ousted as FBI Director
Prediction markets showed a higher chance of FBI Director Kash Patel losing his job in the coming weeks amid allegations of erratic conduct that he has denied.
The claims came from an article in The Atlantic on Friday that suggested Patel had often appeared intoxicated while at work. Patel publicly rejected the allegations and warned the outlet, "Print it, all false, I'll see you in court – bring your checkbook," a dispute that coincided with some heightened market interest in whether he would leave his post.
Patel has faced criticism across his tenure at the helm of the FBI, having publicly shared details of investigations on social media before they could be corroborated. His handling of the Jeffrey Epstein files saga has also drawn criticism alongside former Attorney General Pam Bondi, who was reported to have lost her job because of her role in the Department of Justice’s release of the files.
Newsweek reached out to the FBI for further comment Monday morning via email.
Will Patel Lose His Job? What Prediction Markets Show
Polymarket has at least two events ongoing as of Monday morning around the topic of Patel’s job security.
One, entitled “Kash Patel out by…?” showed a 23 percent chance of the director being out of the FBI by April 30, then 67 percent by June 30, and 80 percent by December 31, with the latter two odds up significantly in recent days.
Patel was not the leading Trump administration official on the market “Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?”, however, coming in second at 81 percent, behind Secretary of Labor Lori Chavez-DeRemer on an 86 percent chance.
Kalshi listed a market related to Patel's tenure, also, with possible dates listed as by August 1, July 1, June 1, and May 1, 2026. All saw a slight uptick in recent days before settling back down again, with the most likely date being by August 1 at 75 percent as of Monday morning.
Newsweek previously reported a surge in activity on Polymarket backing an early-summer exit for Patel, on March 27, after an Iran‑linked group published what it claimed were years of Patel's personal and business emails, and noted intraday moves on Kalshi's annual-exit pricing.
The Atlantic article at the center of Patel's denial alleged episodes of erratic conduct and inebriation as described by sources, and said senior officials discussed potential replacements. Patel and FBI public affairs chief Benjamin Williamson sharply rejected the reporting, but the story drew prompted calls from some Democrats for Patel to go.
“The Atlantic reporting confirms what we've known for months: Kash Patel is an out of control imbecile completely unfit to serve as FBI Director,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York posted to X April 18. “Every day he plays that role is a danger to law enforcement and our country. He must resign immediately.”
What Happens Next
For now, Patel remains at the FBI, using the weekend to defend his tenure and the FBI’s work in television interviews.
“This FBI has the most prolific year in crime reduction in United States history,” Patel told Fox News. “A 20 percent in reduction in the homicide rate, a 20-point reduction in opiate overdose deaths. We have found and identified 6,300 child victims…a 30 percent increase, seizing enough fentanyl to kill 180 million Americans.”
He added: “If I’m not doing my job, if I’m not working, then how is it the FBI delivered the safest America, under President Trump’s leadership, in the history of our country?”
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This story was originally published April 20, 2026 at 7:45 AM.