Activity in the Atlantic? Here's your hurricane forecast update

With only one short-lived storm so far (Arthur), it's been a very calm start to the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season – the quietest since 2014, forecasters said.

However, there are some signs of possible tropical activity in the Atlantic near the Southeast U.S. coast by the middle of next week, though the chances are quite small as of June 26.

Meanwhile, the eastern Pacific hurricane basin has been off to a running start, with yet another potential storm for next week on National Hurricane Center maps.

If it forms, it would be the fourth named Pacific storm of the season.

Possible activity in the Atlantic next week, AI model says

A tropical system could spin up near the Southeast coast next week, some forecasters said.

According to AccuWeather meteorologist Alex Sosnowski, clusters of thunderstorms are expected to develop along the tail end of a front forecast to stall near the southern Atlantic coast later this week. The storms could consolidate into an area of low pressure that, given the warm ocean waters, has a chance to become a tropical or subtropical storm, he said.

"Some of our forecast models – namely Google's machine learning-based DeepMind hurricane model – are hinting at a small development window off the southeastern U.S. for the middle part of next week," said WPLG-TV hurricane specialist Michael Lowry in an email to USA TODAY.

Odds remain low for now, 10% or less, but best chances will come from June 30 to July 2 if anything tries to spin up, he said.

The hurricane center has not included it in its outlook for next week yet, however.

Tropical Storm Arthur

The only named Atlantic storm so far this season was a prodigious rainmaker, setting a record in Louisiana for rainfall. Indeed, Tropical Storm Arthur was a perfect reminder of a message hurricane experts repeat time and again: The category of the storm doesn't mean it won't bring death and mayhem.

On June 18 in Louisiana, rain associated with Arthur's remnants set a new 24-hour state rain record at 29.06 inches, according to the National Weather Service office in Lake Charles. That rain fell in less than 12 hours at a CoCoRaHs Observation Station 3.4 miles southeast of Cottonport, Louisiana. The previous record – 22 inches – was set during a non-tropical event on Aug. 29, 1962.

Over June 18-19, the weather service office in New Orleans counted 14 tornadoes, all of them an EF1 or lower.

Saharan dust storms make their way west

A plume of Saharan dust is moving into western portions of the Atlantic hurricane basin.

The migrating dust can move from the African desert more than 5,000 miles westward over the Atlantic and is known for suppressing rainfall and conditions that support hurricanes.

Dust concentrations were moderate to heavy over the U.S. Virgin Islands on June 26 and expected to move eastward toward Puerto Rico, according to the National Weather Service office in San Juan. By June 28, the dust is expected to begin arriving in Southeast Texas and linger for a couple of days, according to the weather service office in Houston. In Texas, the dust may result in reduced air quality (especially for sensitive groups), hazy skies, and vibrant sunrises and sunsets early next week.

Pacific storms

The fourth potential storm is a tropical wave several hundred miles south of southwest Mexico. The hurricane center said conditions are expected to become more favorable for it to become a tropical depression within the next seven days as it moves generally west-northwest, the hurricane center said. The next name up in the Pacific rotation is Douglas.

All three of the early season storms in the Pacific never progressed past tropical storm.

• Amanda trailed off into the sunset in the open ocean.
• Boris made landfall in southern Mexico early on the morning of June 9, causing flooding and mudslides, according to the hurricane center. It was blamed for one death.
• Cristina moved along the coast of Nicaragua, Honduras and El Salvador, but dissipated before making landfall in El Salvador.

Doyle Rice and Dinah Voyles Pulver are national correspondents for USA TODAY, with decades of experience covering violent weather and climate.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Activity in the Atlantic? Here's your hurricane forecast update

Reporting by Dinah Voyles Pulver and Doyle Rice, USA TODAY / USA TODAY

USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Copyright Reuters or USA Today Network via Reuters Connect

This story was originally published June 26, 2026 at 12:45 PM.