Map Shows Trump Approval Rating in Each State With Critical Senate Races
President Donald Trump's approval rating is underwater in every state with a battleground Senate race in this year’s midterm elections.
The midterms are usually viewed as a referendum on the sitting president, and historically, the party in the White House loses seats. In 2022, when Joe Biden was president, Democrats lost nine seats, while the GOP lost 40 during Trump’s first term in 2018.
Trump's approval rating has declined since he returned to office in January 2025 over economic concerns like the cost of living and higher gas prices amid the Iran war. The weakening national approval rating could provide Democrats an opening to win in more difficult states this year.
Why Trump Approval Matters for Midterms
Democrats believe that Trump’s poor approval rating could help them expand the Senate battleground-doing so is a must if they want to win control of the upper chamber of Congress in November. Currently, Republicans have a 53-47 majority, so Democrats need to flip four GOP-held seats to win a majority.
The 2026 map presents few obvious potential pickups for Democrats. GOP-held seats in Maine, which Trump lost by 7 percentage points in 2024, and North Carolina, which he won by 3, present the best opportunities.
But no other GOP-held seats in states he either won by single digits or lost in 2024 are up for grabs. Meanwhile, Democrats are on the defense in Trump-won Georgia and Michigan.
So Democrats must compete in some states Trump won by double digits, like Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas. Democrats believe Trump's poor approval rating, which in many polls sits in the 30s, could open flip opportunities.
Trump's approval dipping below 40 percent is "going to shave points off of Republican candidates in Senate races," and Republicans running in seats viewed as toss ups or even leaning toward Republicans have reason to "be worried," Raymond La Raja, professor of political science at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, told Newsweek.
"Trump's low approval ratings put these states into play for Democrats, for sure," he said. "However, there is still many months before the election, and the Democratic candidates need to avoid mistakes that will take the message away from the economy."
Meena Bose, executive dean of Hofstra University’s Peter S. Kalikow School of Government, told Newsweek that Trump's approval rating may be cause for Republicans to shift their focus.
"Republican candidates in competitive races likely will have to navigate a complex campaign strategy of upholding overarching party principles while demonstrating independent judgment and a commitment to representing state interests over White House expectations or demands," she said.
Trump's Approval in Senate Battlegrounds
Trump's approval has fallen into negative territory in each state with a Senate race viewed as a toss-up, Lean Democratic or Lean Republican by the Cook Political Report, according to Civiqs.
The data comes from Civiqs' rolling online tracking poll of registered voters, which includes 111,661 responses since Trump took office in each state.
Trump's approval was worse in two New England states, Maine and New Hampshire. In Maine, where GOP Senator Susan Collins is running for reelection, Trump had a net approval rating of -31 points. In New Hampshire, an open seat vacated by retiring Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen, his approval stood at -32.
His approval was also low in the two seats Democrats are defending.
In Georgia, where Senator Jon Ossoff is running for reelection, Trump’s net approval was -21, according to Civiqs. It was -20 in Michigan, where Democratic Senator Gary Peters is retiring.
His approval rating sat at -15 in North Carolina, where Republican Senator Thom Tillis is retiring.
In the four most conservative states Democrats view as possible flips, his approval rating was also a net negative-at -8 in Alaska, -13 in Iowa, -12 in Ohio and -13 in Texas, according to Civiqs.
Trump's approval rating isn't the only factor that will shape the competitiveness of the races, Chandler James, professor of political science at the University of Oregon, told Newsweek.
"The main thing for these respective races is the effectiveness of the candidates who are running for the office," he said. "If they don’t do a good job, then it really probably doesn’t really matter how low Trump’s approval rating goes."
Why Is Trump's Approval Falling?
Analysts point to the economy as a major reason Trump's approval rating has fallen.
"Trump's approval has slipped for a variety of reasons, but primarily because of the electorate's outlook on who is to blame for high inflation," La Raja said. "The war is unpopular and voters see everyday that it drove up gas prices. That double whammy hurts the president."
A Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report this month found that prices rose 0.5 percent in May, an increase driven by spiking fuel costs amid disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran war. Annual inflation accelerated to 4.2 percent from 3.8 percent in April, the highest since April 2023, when it was 4.9 percent.
Tackling inflation was a cornerstone of Trump's 2024 campaign, and Biden's struggle to address it was a key reason Trump defeated former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024.
Bose said there are numerous reasons for Trump's declining approval rating.
"Unpredictability in policy making and consequences for voters' major concerns, from affordability to political stability at home and abroad, appear to be significant in understanding the president's declining approval ratings," she said. "Addressing those concerns will be essential for reversing the decline and waging strong congressional and state campaigns in the fall."
Where Polls Stand in Key Senate Races
Polls show competitive races in each of these states:
Alaska
Senator Dan Sullivan is facing a challenge from former Representative Mary Peltola in Alaska, which backed Trump by 14 points in 2024. Although Alaska is viewed as a generally Republican state, it has backed Republicans by smaller margins in recent cycles, and Peltola is viewed as a particularly strong candidate.
The latest poll from Alaska Survey Research showed Peltola up 5 points at 49 percent to Sullivan's 44 percent. Alaska uses ranked-choice voting, but the poll did not survey voters on their second or third choices. It was conducted June 4-7 among 1,393 likely voters.
The race is considered Lean Republican by the Cook Political Report.
Georgia
Ossoff is set to face Representative Mike Collins in the nation's newest swing state in November. Collins won the GOP primary this month, but polls give Ossoff an advantage.
An Echelon Insights poll showed Ossoff up 7 points at 51 percent to Collins' 44 percent. It was conducted April 3-9 among 407 likely voters. An Emerson College poll, which surveyed 1,000 likely voters February 28-March 2, showed Ossoff up with 48 percent to Collins' 43 percent.
The Cook Political Report classifies the race as Lean Democratic.
Iowa
In a state Trump won by about 13 points, GOP Representative Ashley Hinson is facing state legislator Josh Turek in the race to succeed Republican Senator Joni Ernst. Once a battleground, Iowa has shifted toward Republicans, but Democrats believe economic fallout of the Iran war and tariffs could make the state competitive.
A recent poll from Global Strategy Group showed Turek with a 2-point lead. The Turek internal poll showed support from 47 percent of respondents to Hinson's 45 percent. It surveyed 1,000 likely voters June 8-11 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
The Cook Political Report views the race as Lean Republican.
Maine
Democrats are hopeful about their chances of unseating Collins, a longtime incumbent, with progressive political newcomer Graham Platner. Polls have shown a tightening race, however, after a series of controversies involving Platner. Maine uses ranked choice.
A Quantus Insights poll, which surveyed 870 likely voters June 9-11, showed Platner at 46 percent to Collins' 45. A Tavern Research poll, which surveyed 1,642 likely voters June 5-8, showed him at 51 percent to Collins' 49.
It's rated a toss-up by the Cook Political Report.
Michigan
The contours of the Michigan race aren't quite defined, as the primary is set for August. Trump won Michigan by less than 2 percentage points, so both parties view the state as competitive regardless of the national environment.
On the Republican side, former Representative Mike Rogers is viewed as the likely candidate for the general election. Democrats, including Representatives Haley Stevens, state Senator Mallory McMorrow and public health official Dr. Abdul El-Sayed are facing off in the primary.
The latest poll from Zenith Research favors Democrats-against Rogers, Stevens was up 43 percent to 42 percent, McMorrow ahead 44 percent to 42 percent and El-Sayed led 45 percent to 42 percent. It surveyed 602 likely voters June 11-14.
However, a Mitchell Research & Communications poll showed Rogers leading each Democrat-42-41 over El Sayed, 42-39 over Stevens 42-39 and 43-41 over McMorrow. It surveyed 606 likely voters May 1-7.
The Cook Political Report classifies it as a toss-up.
New Hampshire
Democratic Representative Chris Pappas is viewed as the Democratic front-runner, while former Senator John Sununu and former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown are running in the Republican primary.
The latest University of New Hampshire poll showed Pappas leading Brown by 14 points, 52 percent to 38 percent, and Sununu by 7 points, 49-42. It surveyed 1,115 likely voters April 17-21.
Harris carried New Hampshire by about 3 points.
The race is rated Lean Democratic by the Cook Political Report.
North Carolina
One of the most evenly divided battleground states, North Carolina is between Democratic former Governor Roy Cooper and former Republican National Committee Chair Michael Whatley.
Democrats haven't won a Senate race in North Carolina since 2008, but Cooper's candidacy as a popular official who has won statewide has fueled party optimism. He has polled well against Whatley.
A new poll from Catawba College released on Tuesday found Cooper with a 14-point lead, 48 percent to 34 percent. Fifteen percent were undecided. The poll surveyed 1,000 North Carolina voters June 1-10 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.83 percentage points.
A recent Harper Polling/Carolina Journal poll showed Cooper leading by more than 11 points, with 49.8 percent of respondents saying they would support him in November. Whatley received 38.7 percent of the vote. The poll surveyed 600 likely voters May 10-11, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
The Cook Political Report views the race as Lean Democratic.
Ohio
Democratic former Senator Sherrod Brown, who lost in 2024, is seeking a comeback against Senator Jon Husted, who was appointed to replace Vice President JD Vance. Ohio was once a major battleground but has shifted rightward over the past decade, backing Trump by about 11 points in 2024.
A Fox News poll, conducted by Beach Research and Shaw & Company Research, showed Brown up 8 points at 53 percent to Husted's 45. It surveyed 1,015 registered voters May 28 to June 1.
A Bowling Green State University poll, conducted among 1,000 registered voters April 7-14, showed Husted up 3 points at 50 percent.
It is viewed as a toss-up by the Cook Political Report.
Texas
Texas backed Trump by 14 points last year, but Democrats believe state Representative James Talarico will be competitive against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton.
The latest poll from the Texas Politics Project showed Paxton in the lead at 43 percent to Talarico's 42 percent. Libertarian Ted Brown received 3 percent, while 3 percent said they would vote for someone else. Ten percent were still undecided.
The numbers have improved for Paxton, who was polling at 34 percent to Talarico’s 42 percent in an April survey by the pollster.
The race is viewed as Lean Republican by the Cook Political Report.
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This story was originally published June 27, 2026 at 1:00 AM.