South Korea nears $40,000 per capita GDP milestone

April 20 (Asia Today) -- South Korea's per capita gross domestic product is projected to surpass $40,000 by 2028, signaling a potential end to years of economic stagnation in the $30,000 range.

The forecast, released Monday by the International Monetary Fund, estimates South Korea's per capita GDP will reach $40,695 in 2028, crossing the threshold for the first time.

The country first exceeded $30,000 in per capita GDP in 2016, reaching $30,839, and climbed to $35,359 in 2018. However, growth slowed in subsequent years, with figures falling to $33,818 in 2019 and $33,652 in 2020.

A rebound in 2021, driven by pandemic-era stimulus and strong exports, lifted the figure to $37,503, but it declined again to $34,810 in 2022 amid global economic pressures. Recovery resumed in 2023, with per capita GDP estimated at $37,412 last year.

Economists attribute the prolonged period in the $30,000 range to structural challenges, including slower economic growth, exchange rate volatility and demographic shifts.

South Korea's economic growth rate has declined from around 4% to 5% in earlier years to roughly 2% in recent periods, slowing income gains. Weak investment, declining productivity and subdued domestic demand have also weighed on growth.

Exchange rate movements have played a key role. Because per capita GDP is measured in U.S. dollars, a weaker Korean won can reduce the figure even if the domestic economy remains stable. The strong dollar in 2022 was cited as a major factor behind the temporary decline.

Demographic trends have further constrained growth. An aging population and a shrinking workforce have lowered the country's potential growth rate, while productivity gains in service industries have lagged behind export-driven sectors such as semiconductors.

Some economists caution against focusing too heavily on the $40,000 benchmark. Kim Sang-bong said per capita GDP is only one indicator of national income and may not fully reflect living standards, particularly given its sensitivity to exchange rate fluctuations.

He added that policymakers should focus more on whether economic growth is broadly shared and supported by improvements in quality, rather than on headline figures alone.

-- Reported by Asia Today; translated by UPI

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Original Korean report: https://www.asiatoday.co.kr/kn/view.php?key=20260420010006189

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This story was originally published April 20, 2026 at 4:35 PM.