Conservative revolt over stimulus deal puts pressure on vulnerable GOP senators
Conservative senators are resisting efforts from the White House and Senate Republican leadership to fashion a broad economic stimulus deal with Democrats that would provide more money for testing, schools and the unemployed.
The revolt could mean trouble not only for Republican efforts to approve a relief package before a month-long recess, but for the party’s chances of maintaining control of the upper chamber in November, as vulnerable GOP senators prepare to face voters in their home states as the election quickly approaches.
“For senators who are in tight races, I expect this week you will start seeing them raising their hands and saying, ‘We can’t go home until we get a deal,” said Jeff Grappone, a Republican Senate strategist. “These members are going to want to go back home and talk about what they’ve done to address the pandemic and help the economy recover.”
Conservatives cite long-held concerns about the exploding federal deficit, warning there will be a political and economic price to pay if the government commits yet another trillion or more dollars to spending. Republican leaders have proposed a $1.1 trillion relief plan, and White House officials Monday resumed negotiations with Democrats over a package.
Republicans are defending 23 of the 35 seats up for election in November. Control of the Senate could hinge on the results of several races for Republican-held seats where incumbents need independents and jobless workers to back them.
GOP senators in Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Arizona, Montana and North Carolina are seen as particularly vulnerable, according to independent analysts and polls. If Joe Biden is elected president, Democrats would need a net gain of three seats to have a majority; if President Donald Trump is re-elected, Democrats would need to gain four.
Most senators from both parties up for reelection favor continuing extra unemployment benefits in some form, which 25 million people who are currently out of work had been receiving until the end of July.
“I look at it as a war,” said GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, who could face a tough re-election fight this fall, of the pandemic. “And if you believe we’re in a war with a virus, you have to spend money when you’re in a war.”
ANGRY CONSERVATIVES
But here’s the GOP’s problem: While more spending could mean more moderate voters, it could alienate conservatives that the party also badly needs. Recent polls have shown GOP senators trailing their Democratic opponents in Arizona, Maine and North Carolina, and holding small leads in Georgia and Montana.
On Capitol Hill on Monday, White House and congressional negotiators remained largely deadlocked over how to proceed to ease the nation’s worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.
At the heart of the dispute is a disagreement over whether to revive a $600 weekly unemployment insurance payment benefit, even at a reduced rate. Conservatives worry that beneficiaries lack incentives to seek work and that the extra spending will further balloon the federal debt and deficit.
GOP leaders have proposed to reduce the unemployment benefits to $200 weekly for up to 60 days and 70% of lost wages, up to a certain amount, after that. The payments would cost the federal government an estimated $110 billion over the next 10 years, according to the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
Conservatives who head limited government groups are urging Trump to reject any plan that extends the benefits at the current rate and includes trillions of dollars of new spending.
Club for Growth President David McIntosh said he would urge Trump to veto large spending legislation. And Stephen Moore, the founder of the group Committee To Unleash Prosperity who also acts as an outside economic adviser to the president, said he would rather a deal not come together at all than have Congress pass an extension of the $600 weekly benefits.
The White House has said that it would like to see a bill addressing unemployment benefits passed before the Senate leaves for its summer recess.
“The White House is supportive of extending unemployment insurance benefits, though the amount is being negotiated,” a White House official told McClatchy.
‘A VERY DIVIDED REPUBLICAN PARTY’
In a call with reporters as the GOP stimulus bill was set to be unveiled last week, Moore warned that a mass spending bill would lead to a “very divided Republican Party and a lot of conservative opposition.”
“That’s not a good look for the party as it goes into the November elections. We need unity,” Moore said. “Republicans would be a lot smarter to put out a bill that contains a lot of the principles that conservatives and Republicans believe in, lower taxes, less regulation, all of the kind of pro-growth policies.”
Then, he said, conservatives could “put the onus on [House Speaker Nancy] Pelosi to oppose that, and then Republicans can run against her, if they can’t get a deal.”
Conservative Republican senators have likewise argued that the $1.1 trillion Senate GOP economic relief plan could alienate loyal voters the party needs most in the November elections.
GOP Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky said that too many Republicans “have the misguided notion that you have to spend or else you can’t get elected.”
“Those of us who believe in that (curbing spending) are very frustrated by what we’re seeing. What if people aren’t motivated to vote? What if people vote for a third party? It doesn’t take much, 2 or 3%, and all of a sudden it changes very close races,” he said.
In an interview with McClatchy, Ken Blackwell, a member of Moore’s group and wants the next stimulus bill to include a payroll tax cut, singled out Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin, who is leading the talks on Capitol Hill for the administration with White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows, as an obstacle to a deal that includes measures that conservatives support.
Paul estimated 10 to 15 Senate Republicans shared that frustration.
“A lot of the people that are angry at this administration aren’t gonna be bought off by more money, because the Democrats are for even more money,” Paul said. By spending more and more, “We lose our soul. We also lose what we stand for.”
This story was originally published August 3, 2020 at 12:27 PM with the headline "Conservative revolt over stimulus deal puts pressure on vulnerable GOP senators."
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