These are now the 10 tightest 2022 House races in California. Here’s the latest
With June primaries swiftly approaching for this year’s United States House of Representatives’ elections, analysts have updated their ratings on which races could decide whether Republicans or Democrats hold the power in 2023.
Several elections in California could determine if the GOP and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Bakersfield, control the chamber.
The party of the president — now Joe Biden, a Democrat — tends to perform poorly in midterm elections. With Biden’s approval rating slipping on inflation, gas prices and pandemic policies, many experts have predicted that Republicans have an upper hand.
Major election trackers updated their ratings after the release of first-quarter campaign fundraising reports this month, with Republicans making gains. Editors for organizations rate races in congressional districts based on if they are solidly, likely, leaning or a toss-up for either party.
The analysts previously set their guidance in January following redistricting, the once-a-decade redrawing of legislative boundaries that rejiggered California’s districts to absorb a seat around Los Angeles. California lost a seat in Congress because of sluggish population growth, dropping its House delegation to 52 representatives beginning in 2023.
“Californians feel the pain of rising costs every time they get gas or go shopping. They know Democrats are to blame and will vote them out in November,” Torunn Sinclair, a spokeswoman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, the House’s GOP arm, said in a statement on the changed ratings in April.
“Republicans in California abandoned their constituents with their relentless attacks on our democracy, our fundamental reproductive rights, and the cost-cutting policies Democrats have championed,” Maddy Mundy, a spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the House’s Democratic arm, said in response to a question on the changed ratings. Mundy said that Democrats were “on the offense” in California and specifically mentioned targeting three GOP incumbents in toss-up races.
These are the 10 most hotly contested House races in California, according to the editors of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Elections Daily, as of May 5, 2022.
Likely Republican
Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections say a Republican will likely win these elections.
3rd District
No incumbent
The district that stretches along the Nevada border would have voted for former President Donald Trump in 2020 by a 2% margin, which suggests that it would be open to a GOP candidate in 2022.
Assemblyman Kevin Kiley of Rocklin and Sacramento County Sheriff Scott Jones are the Republicans vying for this seat. Both are listed as NRCC-backed candidates through its “On the Radar” program, which offers candidates support.
Dr. Kermit Jones, a lawyer and navy veteran, and David Peterson, a small businessman, are the Democrats.
While three of the analysis organizations call it a “likely” Republican seat, Elections Daily rates this election as a “safe” Republican win.
40th District
Incumbent: Rep. Young Kim, R-Fullerton
The Orange County district would have gone for Biden in 2020 by 2 percentage points. But in 2020, Kim won in a district that offered Biden a 10% margin.
Kim faces Republicans Greg Raths and Nick Taurus and Democrat Dr. Asif Mahmood. Raths, a former fighter pilot, contested Rep. Katie Porter in 2020. Taurus is a self-described “American nationalist;” Mahmood is a pulmonologist and internal medicine doctor.
Elections Daily says the race “leans” Republican.
41st District
Incumbent: Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Corona
The district holding Riverside would have gone to Trump by 1 percentage point in 2020. Calvert’s old district gave the former president a 7% margin.
The Corona Republican has not had an election in which a challenger came within 3 percentage points since 2008.
He faces Democrats Shrina Kurani, an engineer, and Will Rollins, a former federal prosecutor; Republican John Michael Lucio, a construction project manager; and Anna Nevenic, a nurse who has no party preference.
Elections Daily considers this district a “safe” Republican seat.
Toss-up
All four election trackers have consistently agreed that these districts could go either way.
22nd District
Incumbent: Rep. David Valadao, R-Hanford
Valadao’s old district voted for Biden in the last presidential election with an 11% margin. The newly drawn district, which stretches from Hanford past Wasco, would have voted for the president by a 13% margin.
The dairy farmer is no stranger to tough elections: Valadao lost and regained his seat to former Congressman TJ Cox, a Democrat, in 2018 and 2020, respectively.
The moderate Republican has represented the Hispanic-majority area for the better part of the last nine years.
Challenger Assemblyman Rudy Salas is in the DCCC’s “Red to Blue” program, which is trying to flip the district.
Salas has less than $310,000 on hand for his campaign compared to Valadao’s more than $1.6 million, according to their most recent campaign finance reports. Valadao outraised Salas by about $153,000 over the last three months.
Valadao also faces Republicans Chris Mathys, a former Fresno City Council member who unsuccessfully sued to be identified on the ballot as a “Trump conservative,” and Adam Thomas Medeiros, a businessman.
27th District
Incumbent: Rep. Mike Garcia, R-Santa Clarita
Garcia lost right-leaning Simi Valley when California’s redistricting commission shaped the 27th district. It is settled right above Los Angeles.
Instead of a district that went to Biden by a margin of 10 percentage points, this one would have went to the president by 12. The change is minor, but Garcia barely won in 2020 when he bested former Democratic Assemblywoman Christy Smith by 333 votes.
He faces a slew of challengers, including Smith.
Other Democrats are John Quaye Quartey, a former naval intelligence officer, and Ruth Luevanos, the first Latina elected to the Simi Valley City Council.
Republicans are David Rudnick, a veteran and businessman, and Mark Pierce, who develops training materials for administrators of federal government contracts.
F.E. Keivaulqe Autiameineire is running as a write-in, Independent candidate.
45th District
Incumbent: Rep. Michelle Steel, R-Seal Beach
Steel was forced into an inland district that does not hold Seal Beach.
Her new district reaches up from parts of the old one in a crescent shape through Cypress and into parts of Fullerton. It contains much of Little Saigon, where Steel found a lot of support to oust former Congressman Harley Rouda, a Democrat, in 2020.
Asian Americans are the largest voting-age ethnic group in the district.
Steel faces Democratic challenger Jay Chen, a small business owner and naval reservist, and Republican Long Pham, an engineer and businessman. Chen is another DCCC “Red to Blue” candidate.
Lean Democratic
Sabato’s Crystal Ball writes that these races “lean” Democratic.
13th District
No incumbent
The Democrats facing off in this San Joaquin Valley district — which holds Merced County and chunks of Modesto and Turlock — are Assemblyman Adam Gray and Phil Arballo, who ran against former Congressman Devin Nunes in 2020.
Republican candidates include Diego Martinez, David Giglio and John Duarte.
The NRCC has Duarte, a businessman and farmer, “On the Radar.” Martinez, a business owner, previously ran in the recall election against Gov. Gavin Newsom; Giglio, a teacher and business owner, is a first-time candidate.
The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball say the race leans Democratic, but Inside Elections and Elections Daily say the seat is “likely” to go to a Democrat.
47th District
Incumbent: Rep. Katie Porter, D-Irvine
The 47th district captures Porter’s hometown of Irvine, even though two-thirds of the voters are new to the representative. Like her old Orange County district, it would have voted for Biden by 11 percentage points.
She faces Republicans who are running on strong conservative platforms, including Errol Webber, Amy Phan West and Brian Burley.
Porter also faces Scott Baugh, once the Republican leader of the California State Assembly, who is in a different NRCC program.
The Cook Political Report and Elections Daily agree that the race leans Democratic, but Inside Elections rates it as likely.
49th District
Incumbent: Rep. Mike Levin, D-San Juan Capistrano
Levin’s district got a boost of Biden voters, going from a margin of victory of 7% to 11%. But with national headwinds against Democrats, election trackers have the San Diego district on their radar.
He has five Republican challengers.
Three are “On the Radar” for the NRCC: Brian Maryott, a former mayor of San Juan Capistrano who Levin bested by just over 6 percentage points in 2020 for the seat; Lisa Bartlett, a former mayor of Dana Point; and Christopher Rodriguez, an Oceanside City Council member and veteran.
Josiah O’Neil, once a special agent with the U.S. Department of State, and Renee Taylor, an Air Force veteran, join them.
Nadia Smalley, a nurse and businesswoman, is Levin’s sole Democratic opponent.
Elections Daily also writes that the race leans Democratic, but the Cook Political Report and Inside Elections rate it as likely.
Likely Democratic
9th District
Incumbent: Rep. Josh Harder, D-Turlock
Though Inside Elections thinks a Democrat will safely win the Stockton-centered district, Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the Cook Political Report and Elections Daily rate the race in here as just likely going Democratic.
After Rep. Jerry McNerney, D-Stockton, said he would not run there again, the Turlock native moved north from the 13th district.
Harder faces Republicans Tom Patti, Jonathan Madison and Jim Shoemaker.
Patti, a San Joaquin County supervisor, is part of the NRCC’s “On the Radar” program. Madison is an attorney and business owner. Shoemaker is the president of the California Republican Assembly, San Joaquin Chapter, and businessman.
Democratic challengers include Harpreet Chima, a union organizer; Karena Feng, a real estate and political consultant; and Khalid Jeffrey Jafri, an engineer and farmer.
Independent Mark Andrews, a business owner, is also running.
This story was updated at 9:51 a.m. Pacific Time on May 11, 2022, to include a social media video.
This story was originally published May 10, 2022 at 5:00 AM with the headline "These are now the 10 tightest 2022 House races in California. Here’s the latest."
