What to know about 4 California congressional races that are too close to call
Four California congressional races remain too close to call, according to the Associated Press, the news organization widely regarded as the most authoritative source for determining determine electoral winners.
California’s 9th, 13th, 21st and 45th Congressional Districts were undecided as of 12:45 p.m. Pacific Time Thursday. The districts span the Central Valley and Orange County, politically mixed parts of California that tend to elect Democrats or Republicans., and California’s vote-counting is notoriously, often frustratingly, slow. There are many reasons for that.
The state gives counties a month after Election Day to submit final tallies, a lot of leeway compared to other states for the speed of vote counting.
California accepts ballots mailed up to a week late if they were postmarked by Election Day. It is one of a handful of states that mails every active, registered voter a ballot and mail-ins take longer to process than in-person ballots.
The state is one of many that does ballot-curing, or allowing voters to correct technical errors such as signature problems, which is more difficult with high proportions of mail-in ballots.
Secretary of State Shirley Weber on Thursday said California elections officials prioritize accuracy over speed when it comes to processing ballots.
“We take pride in the fact that we’re not rushed. We’re not slow, but we’re not in a race” to announce election results before other states, she said.
Counties have until Dec. 6 to certify their own election results. Weber said as long as they’re able to meet that deadline, there are no issues with her.
“Our counties are not complaining that they would like to get it over sooner,” she said. “They realize the tremendous challenge it is to be accurate and to make sure that they get all the material in.”
It’s still too soon to know how the candidates in these races will fare. But in the words of voting data expert Paul Mitchell, owner of Redistricting Partners and Vice President of Political Data Inc., there are “lots of ballots still outstanding, and in most parts of the state, they are skewed very Democratic.”
Regardless of the outcomes in the uncalled districts, Republicans captured a slim House of Representatives majority, per the AP. The GOP will control at least 218 seats when the 119th Congress convenes in January. Democrats will have at least 209. Republicans’ slim majority will be thinned at the outset if representatives’ appointments to Trump administration roles get confirmed.
Here’s what to know about the four uncalled races in California based on estimates of uncounted votes at 12:45 p.m. on Thursday. Estimates and race calls might have changed since then.
California’s 9th Congressional District
Rep. Josh Harder, D-Tracy, has declared victory and Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln, a Republican, has conceded in this Central Valley race. AP has not declared a winner.
Harder, a congressman since 2019, had 52% of the votes and Lincoln had 48% as of Wednesday night. An estimated 86% of the votes had been counted.
Most of the uncounted ballots are in San Joaquin County, which holds a majority of the district’s voters and has favored the Democrat by more than 4 percentage points in processed votes. Lincoln was beating Harder in Contra Costa and Stanislaus counties — that population makes up a fraction of the district and a sliver of the estimated uncounted votes.
The district was likely, but not definitely, going to pick the Democrat, election forecasters had said before Nov. 5. Analysts cited national Republican enthusiasm to flip this seat and Lincoln’s candidacy as an upside for the GOP, but noted Harder’s decisive 2022 win and the district’s left-leaning makeup.
The congressman, 38, entered the House by ousting a Republican from a district containing Harder’s hometown of Turlock in 2018. Lincoln, 44, has been mayor of his hometown of Stockton since 2021.
California’s 13th Congressional District
The 2024 Central Valley rematch between Rep. John Duarte, R-Modesto, and former Assemblyman Adam Gray, D-Merced, was expected to be one of the nation’s closest elections.
Duarte, a businessman and farmer turned congressman, had 51% of the votes and Gray had 49% as of Wednesday night. An estimated 74% of the votes had been counted.
Most of the uncounted votes were in Merced County, Gray’s home turf, where Duarte is up by four-tenths of a percentage point. The 13th captures all of Merced County.
Another large chunk of votes are uncounted in the district’s cut of Stanislaus County, where Duarte lives just outside the district. Gray is currently up by less than 5 percentage points there.
There are also many uncounted votes in the district’s portions of Madera, Fresno and San Joaquin counties. Individually each county makes up smaller portions of the unprocessed vote tallies, though the 13th holds most of Madera County’s population and parts of the other two counties.
Their 2022 contest was one of the most competitive nationwide, helping cement Republicans’ slim House majority. Duarte, 58, was declared the winner several weeks after Election Day, with the freshman prevailing by about four-tenths of a percentage point.
Gray, 47, served Merced in the California State Assembly for a decade before leaving his seat in 2022 for the congressional bid.
California’s 21st Congressional District
Rep. Jim Costa, D-Fresno, is in a rematch with Republican Michael Maher, a veteran and former FBI special agent, in this Fresno district.
Costa, a congressman since 2005, had 52% of the votes and Maher had 48% as of Wednesday night. An estimated 82% of the votes had been counted.
Most of the uncounted votes were in the district’s part of Fresno County where the congressman is up by more than 10 percentage points right now. There’s still a large number of unprocessed votes in the Tulare County portion, where Maher is currently ahead by about 8 percentage points.
Costa, 72, faced a repeat challenge from Maher, 41. In 2022, Costa defeated Maher by more than 8 percentage points in a race called a week after Election Day.
California’s 45th Congressional District
Rep. Michelle Steel, R-Seal Beach, is in a very close race with Democrat Derek Tran, a lawyer and veteran.
Steel, a congresswoman since 2021, was ahead of Tran, 44, by two-tenths of a percentage point as of Wednesday night. An estimated 93% of the votes had been counted.
Most of the outstanding votes are in Orange County where Steel, 69, was up by less than two percentage points and where most of this district resides. There are a small number of votes left in the district’s tidbit of Los Angeles County, where Tran was ahead by more than 12 percentage points.
This story was originally published November 14, 2024 at 12:45 PM with the headline "What to know about 4 California congressional races that are too close to call."
