More rain coming to Merced after post-Christmas storm. Will it put a dent in the drought?

After California experienced its driest three years on record — December rains could have a “major” impact on the central San Joaquin Valley’s drought.

“We’re finishing out 2022 with a bang,” Andy Bollenbacher, lead forecaster at the National Weather Service in Hanford, said Wednesday morning. “We’re going to be likely seeing significant adjustments to the drought monitor.”

A post-Christmas Day storm brought just over an inch of rain to Merced County this week — .98 inches on Tuesday and .06 inches on Monday, according to National Weather Service data.

This December alone, Merced has received 3.82 inches of rain, more than double the normal amount of 1.64 inches of for a typical December locally, according to Antoinette Serrato, meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Hanford.

December 2021 also saw above-average rainfall, at 3.61 total inches of rain locally. The record for rain in Merced County on Dec. 27 was 1973, when 1.39 inches dropped on the region.

And more is on the way. Serrato said a storm system is expected to soak Merced from Thursday through the weekend, dropping an estimated inch to an inch-and-a-half of rain.

What will it mean for the drought?

Last December, California saw so much rain that much of the state, including parts of the central San Joaquin Valley, saw a change from category D4 “Exceptional Drought,” to category D3, “Extreme Drought.”

Between December 2021 to December 2022, however, the region’s drought intensified and crept back up to the “Exceptional Drought” category in parts of the Central Valley, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

But meteorologists and forecasters from National Weather Service Hanford office say they are confident the region’s above-average rainfall in December will reduce the drought’s severity in much of the Central Valley.

Much of the central San Joaquin Valley currently experiences the highest intensity drought category, D4 “Exceptional Drought.”

“It wouldn’t surprise me if some areas get double upgraded,” Bollenbacher said, from category D4 to D2 “Severe Drought.”

While Bollenbacher said the “excessive” rains will make a “major dent” in the drought situation, most recent forecasts from the U.S. Drought Monitor predict the drought will persist into March 2023.

This story was originally published December 28, 2022 at 12:35 PM.