After break from storms, more rain expected in Merced area this week, forecasters say
Sunny conditions were expected in the Merced area Sunday and Monday, before more rain is likely to move through the area starting Tuesday, according to the National Weather Service.
Weather conditions Sunday were expected to remain sunny, with highs in the upper 50s before dropping to an overnight low around 32, according to meteorologist Carlos Molina at the National Weather Service in Hanford.
Widespread frost was considered likely Monday morning, with conditions turning mostly sunny and highs in the mid-60s.
The afternoon could see some cloudy conditions, with colder weather moving in from the north to northwest. Cloud cover should prevent temperatures throughout the county from dropping to near freezing Monday night, according to Molina.
Highs in the upper 50s were forecast for Tuesday, along with a roughly 80% chance of rain. Molina said rain was expected to be light in the morning, then turn heavier in the afternoon. The Merced area could see up to about 0.75 of an inch of rain Tuesday, with the Los Banos area expected to see around 0.5 of an inch, according to Molina.
Forecasters said the area could see winds of 15 to 20 mph and sustained gusts to 30 mph.
Wednesday could see highs in the upper 50s and about a 70% chance of precipitation, with showers and a possible thunderstorm likely after 11 a.m. Due to lingering showers, Molina said the area can expect to see about 0.1 of an inch of rain throughout the county. Temperatures are expected to drop Wednesday night into the low 40s.
Thursday is expected to see temperatures warm into the low 60s, with a 20% chance of rain after 11 a.m. By Thursday, the storm is expected to move south of the county, and the continuation of cloud cover will result in lows in the low 40s for the remainder of the week, according to Molina.
Conditions are expected to be dry Friday, with highs in the low 60s.
According to Molina, the Tuesday and Wednesday rains could produce a total of nearly one inch of rain on the east side of Merced County and about 0.5 inches on the west side.
Bear Creek was last observed at 9.45 feet Sunday morning and is currently forecast to rise to about 13.1 feet on Wednesday, nearly four feet below the action stage of 17 feet, according to the Weather Service.
The Merced River at Stevinson was last recorded at 71.06 feet Sunday morning and is forecast to hover around the 71-foot flood stage through Thursday.
Mariposa forecast
Mariposa is expected to see clear weather Sunday and Monday, with a high of about 49 degrees Sunday and Monday temperatures in the mid 50s. The area is expected to see about an 80% chance of rain Tuesday after 11 a.m. with breezy conditions and gusts that could reach 30 mph, according to forecasters. The area could see between 0.75 to one inch of rain Tuesday.
A 90% chance of precipitation is likely Wednesday, with new precipitation amounts of 0.5 to .75 of an inch possible, according to forecasters. Wednesday is expected to be mostly cloudy, with a 70% chance of precipitation and new precipitation amounts of up to 0.25 of an inch are possible.
According to Molina, Tuesday and Wednesday rains in the Mariposa area could produce a total of about two inches of rain with some of the surrounding higher-elevation areas seeing up to three inches. Areas in elevation of about 4,000 feet could see up to six inches of snow, with higher elevations of around 7,000 to 8,000 feet possibly seeing 24 to 36 inches, Molina said.
With about one inch of rain expected in the Valley and as much as two inches expected in the foothills, Molina said the rains could cause concern on the west side of Merced County where the Merced River is currently above flood stage. Molina said the additional rain is expected to keep the river at or just above flood stage with quick moving and strong flows.
This story was originally published March 26, 2023 at 1:28 PM.