What weather can Merced expect for fireworks shows? See the weekend forecast
The United States celebrates its 250th birthday this coming weekend, and with July 4 falling on a Saturday, many folks are settling in to their weekend plans. Top of mind: How will the weather affect the viewing of local fireworks shows?
I am happy to report that there will be good visibility and light wind for most areas, although we will have to continue to monitor the marine layer for folks on the coast. Let’s talk about why, and then get to the holiday weekend forecast.
As we discussed earlier this week, the enormous “heat dome” across the eastern U.S. is actually working to keep temperatures for much of the western U.S. on the cooler and below average. This is despite the record heat on the opposite coast. The stretch of mild temps continues until Saturday, July 4, when the heat begins its return.
While these slightly below average temps have been excellent for folks in interior California, they have also meant a thicker and gustier marine layer the past several days for folks on the coast. That’s not ideal for those looking for a warm sunny day on the beach, or clear skies for fireworks. The good news is that the warming temperatures on July 4 could weaken the cloudy and gusty marine layer.
It is important to note that firework laws vary by city and county across the state. Be sure to check with your local fire department on regulations before setting of personal fireworks. There is plenty of dry fuel to burn across the ground across interior California, and afternoon relative humidity values could drop as low as 15% to 20% in portions of the Central Valley.
Let’s dive into your forecast.
Merced and the southern San Joaquin Valley
For Merced, high temps remain in the low 90s again Thursday afternoon, but we begin to creep upward over the course of the next three days. Friday afternoon reaches into the mid-90s, and Saturday continues into the upper 90s which is typical for this time of year. With light winds, clear skies, and temps still in the 80s at 9 p.m., the weather for firework shows is looking good. It’s worth noting that a very stable air mass across the Central Valley on Friday evening will likely mean some of the smoke from fireworks could be trapped near the surface. This could be felt as intense but local dips in air quality, so be mindful of this if you suffer from respiratory ailments such as asthma or COPD.
Sunday will remain in the mid- to upper 90s for most of the Central Valley. Don’t be surprised to see a few passing clouds as monsoonal moisture approaches from the south early next week.
From the Sacramento Valley to Modesto
For Sacramento and folks south towards Modesto, high temps should hold in the mid- to upper 80s Thursday afternoon thanks to the Delta breeze kicking in. Expect temperatures in the low 90s later Thursday farther north of Sacramento where that Delta breeze won’t reach. There might be a few clouds high up in the sky across Northern California on Thursday. Friday afternoon is a touch warmer in the low 90s with that heat starting to creep back in. The heat will arrive on July 4 with afternoon temps creeping closer to the mid-90s.
With totally clear skies and the breeze holding below 15 mph, firework shows should be fantastic. And while low to mid-90s may seem hot for your plans are this weekend, this is actually average for early July. Worth noting, temperatures will be in the 70s dropping into the 60s between 9 p.m. to 10 p.m. both Friday and Saturday evening — when most firework shows are — so a jacket or sweatshirt will be a great idea for those watching the show.
Temperatures will cool down a touch on Sunday with highs back to the low 90s — another beautiful sunny day to cap off the holiday weekend.
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San Luis Obispo and the coast
High temps on Thursday rise into the upper 60s with a strong marine layer still in place. This means a cloudy morning with fog clearing with some afternoon sunshine if you are away from the coast. Thanks to our heat wave out east, winds over the Pacific Ocean from the northwest have been consistent all week at producing a deep marine layer. This same pattern repeats for Friday, with high temps only reaching to the low 60s right along the ocean and further into the 70s inland towards Paso Robles. The marine layer will thin out a tad Friday, but stay solid enough to linger along the coast into the afternoon and evening.
For July 4, thanks to high temps rising into the low 70s, that marine layer will be weaker still. There will be a little bit of morning fog, but also more sunshine to enjoy all around by the afternoon, even at times for Morro Bay and Pismo Beach. Rinse and repeat for Sunday.
For fireworks, this means that visibility Friday along the coast could be impaired as the marine layer drifts in and out, but visibility will generally be much better Saturday, especially just a few miles inland. Temps will be back into the 50s by 9 p.m., so be sure to bring an extra layer.
If you are travelling, this is pretty much the same pattern you can expect along the coast all the way up to Oregon. So San Francisco, Santa Cruz and others should be prepared for a marine layer that could impair firework shows, but shows just a few miles inland will be much better off.
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Up in the mountains
High temps in the 70s Thursday through Sunday will make for a very pleasant Independence Day weekend outdoors. Even winds won’t be too bad all around, with very little low cloud cover, so you can look forward to brilliant summer evening whether camping or watching a firework show. Keep in mind there is plenty of dry fuel to burn, so be sure to check with the appropriate agencies about fire restrictions.
This story was originally published July 2, 2026 at 10:07 AM with the headline "What weather can Merced expect for fireworks shows? See the weekend forecast."
