Valley’s strongest storm in years projected to hit Merced. How will it impact the drought?
Meteorologists are anticipating the strongest storm in two years to sweep the San Joaquin Valley come Sunday — but that doesn’t mean the inbound forecast is anomalously powerful compared to historical weather conditions.
“It just speaks to how bad the last two years have been,” said Andy Bollenbacher, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Hanford office.
“It doesn’t really speak to the storm being abnormally strong, just how weak and dry our last two years have been.”
Most of Merced County, like much of the Valley, is in the midst of D4 exceptional drought conditions, according to the national drought information system. D4 marks the most severe drought category out of the four-tier system.
California as a whole is experiencing its eighth driest year over the last 127 years, with most of the state showing D4 or D3, extreme drought, conditions.
The inch and a quarter of rainfall projected to land in Merced between Sunday and Monday won’t be enough to put a dent in the dry conditions.
“It will help, but you’re going to need a couple more storms for (Merced) to see a meaningful difference,” Bollenbacher said.
Still, the moderate to high intensity rain means residents should be cautious around the Merced region. Here’s what to know:
Preparing for Valley’s strongest storm in years
Sunday’s storm is projected by meteorologists to roll in from the Gulf of Alaska to the Valley by Sunday afternoon and increase in intensity throughout the night.
The Merced area’s heaviest rainfall is anticipated to begin around 10 p.m. Sunday through 8 a.m. Monday, Bollenbacher said. Meteorologists will be able to hone in on more accurate predictions of the storm’s timing by Friday evening.
Temperatures during Merced’s rainy days are projected to peak in the high 60s and fall to the mid 50s on Sunday. Monday is expected to be cooler with a high in the low 60s and and a low below 50 degrees. Wind gusts on each day could exceed 20 mph.
City crews are still cleaning up damage from last week’s weather, when wind speeds in the 40 mph range around the county caused several downed trees and power lines, said Merced Public Information Officer Jennifer Flachman in an email to the Sun-Star.
The City of Merced will continue to work on hazardous tree responses and ensure storm water catch basins are clear of debris so that water can flow without obstruction, Flachman said.
Residents can access sandbagging supplies at eight locations around the city, referenced on the city’s website. To report downed tree limbs, Merced Public Works can be reached at (209) 385-6800 during regular business hours from 7:30 a.m. until 4:30 p.m. After-hour emergencies may be reported by contacting the Merced Police Department at (209) 385-6905.
Merced residents should remember to turn off sprinkler timers during the storm, as watering isn’t allowed on rainy days, Flachman said. She also urged the public to drive with caution in wet conditions.
Regions higher north in the Valley are expected to see heavier rainfall than areas down south. Forecasters in Sacramento are predicting a massive storm front.
Yosemite is projected to get 5 to 6 inches of higher intensity rain over the course of the storm, Bollenbacher said. Yosemite National Park will temporarily close Tioga Road at 6 p.m. Thursday on account of the storm.
Other park roads are still listed as open, except for the Mariposa Grove Road, which starts near the park’s south entrance and leads to the Mariposa Grove of Giant Sequoias.
Travelers should also be wary of road conditions at elevations 9,000 feet or above on Monday morning when the majority of snowfall is projected, Bollenbacher said.
Snow is expected to stay in the high Sierra above 10,000 feet on Sunday. By Monday though, snow could fall lower at about 8,000 feet elevation by the afternoon. About 2 to 4 feet of snow is projected to fall in the Sierras during the storm, Bollenbacher said. Heavy rain is expected at lower Sierra elevations.
California’s drought conditions and burn scars from past fires are each cause for caution, given the sudden influx of rain. Areas not acclimated to precipitation could see runoff and potentially lead to mudslides or debris flows, Bollenbacher said.
The Creek Fire in 2020 left burn scars where a strong band of rain is anticipated, Bollenbacher said, leaving the area vulnerable to mud and rock flows. The French Fire area in nearby Kern County is of concern, too.
The National Weather Service will issue warnings for these burn scar areas if necessary as a clearer picture of the storm comes into focus, Bollenbacher said.
This story was originally published October 21, 2021 at 11:42 AM.
