Are Trump’s lies about California calculated political genius? Or is he flying blind? | Opinion
When President Donald Trump posted on social media Monday that the military had arrived in California and “turned on the water,” a wholly false statement in every way, it raised an obvious question: What is Trump doing?
“I am as puzzled by this as anyone,” said Sacramento-based political consultant Matt Rexroad, who assisted Republican Steve Garvey in his unsuccessful bid for the U.S. Senate. “I have no idea.”
It begins to make sense, however, if Trump has seized on California water as some kind of a challenge, a game if you will. But how does Trump ultimately seek to “win?”
In real-world planning, game theory is a long-accepted tool for meticulously analyzing future scenarios to help make a reasoned decision. In political game theory, what comes out of a politician’s mouth can be a pre-calculated decision that has already anticipated the outcome.
Academics have long attempted to observe Trump through this lens. It’s a way to try to make sense of what alarmingly wrong things he says — how the military is running things, how a “faucet” controls the big Northern California water projects, and how Los Angeles is short of water when it most decidedly is not.
What is Trump up to? Three possibilities loosely based on political game theory come to mind.
Theory: Trump’s utterances are to steal the California spotlight
Right now, Gov. Gavin Newsom couldn’t buy a top headline in the California media if it was for sale at the French Laundry, the restaurant where he had a chummy mask-free dinner in the throes of the pandemic.
Here in California, the spotlight is all Donald, all the time. Is this by calculated Trumpian design?
Newsom last Friday had to travel to an airport tarmac, uninvited by the president, to meet Trump in Los Angeles in order to briefly get in front of some television cameras. But within minutes, Trump would be the story once again as he toured the fire devastation in Pacific Palisades without Newsom. “We’re going to need your help,” the governor would say.
The president hasn’t since uttered a previous attention-grabbing threat, that he would deny federal aid to rebuild Los Angeles if Newsom would not relax environmental regulations to allow more water to flow to Los Angeles. But now Trump has moved on to bringing in the military instead.
It can all make sense if Trump’s endless chatter is about emasculating Newsom, leaving him in the shadows during one of the deadliest disasters in California history.
Theory: Trump really wants more water (but that could get messy)
It’s entirely possible to take Trump at his (factual) words, that what he really wants is more “beautiful” water supply.
In the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, home of a large federal water project and a large state facility, Trump has ordered his officials to figure out ways to produce more water from the federal Central Valley Project (CVP).
But that doesn’t produce more water for Southern California. Everything south of the Tehachapi’s is served by the other big project, the State Water Project. Unlike the federal project, the state has to follow California’s own version of the Endangered Species Act. Trump more-water directives for the CVP are likely to complicate things for the state project in ways to prevent even a drop of new Los Angeles water.
“Whiplash regulations are likely more damaging than helpful,” said Jennifer Pierre, general manager of the State Water Contractors. It represents the public agencies receiving water from the SWP.
Has Trump thought this through? Would he simply blame Newsom if all his maneuverings don’t do anything for LA?
“At best, Trump is an intuitive game player, who makes mistakes all the time,” said Steven Brams, a professor of politics at New York University who has written extensively about Trump and political game theory. “He may be riding high now, but let’s see how things play out as he antagonizes more and more people.”
Theory: Trump has no idea what he is doing
Looking at Trump’s moves through the sophistication of political game theory may be a mistake. Trump has no formal water team to speak of. His nominee for Interior Secretary is from North Dakota. He isn’t even yet on the job, and if he were, he has no expertise in Delta water operations or regulations. There is no assistant Interior secretary, who is normally the brains of the operation. And Trump has no nominee for the federal Bureau of Reclamation, which has the mastery of running the CVP.
As brain trusts go, Trump’s current one looks pretty bankrupt.
Outwardly, he has little other than billionaire Elon Musk and his similar utterances. Is the shadow government created by Trump and led by Musk, the so-called Department of Government Efficiency, beginning to run things, vastly ignorant of how California water really runs?
It feels too likely that the blind are leading the blind, and hiding it with bluster. That’s a game theory where Trump, and California, end up both as losers.
This story was originally published January 30, 2025 at 5:00 AM with the headline "Are Trump’s lies about California calculated political genius? Or is he flying blind? | Opinion."