San José voters could elect Central Valley’s first Latino Congress member | Opinion

Speculation was rampant in the fall of 2003 that the San Joaquín Valley would make history by electing the first Latino in history to Congress, when then-Rep. Cal Dooley announced he would not seek an eighth term in the 20th Congressional District, where 63% of its residents were Latino.

But those hopes vanished as quickly as a July rainstorm in the Valley.

Juan Arámbula, then a Fresno County Supervisor, felt he could do more by running for the state Assembly, and he went on to serve the maximum four terms there.

Sarah Reyes, who was then-being termed out in the Assembly, passed on a possible run. “While Congress is intriguing, I have discovered that there are so many other areas, worlds and challenges that I would like to explore,” explained Reyes.

So in stepped former state Sen. Jim Costa, a Democrat who has held the seat since. He was backed by Arámbula and Reyes.

So, as crazy as it sounds, the first Latino to represent a Valley district could actually be someone in San José. (You read that correctly.)

Here’s the scenario: If Visalia school board member Randy Villegas fails to make it out of the June 2026 primary to challenge Rep. David Valadao in the heavily Latino 22nd District, that’s one strike.

Then, if former Assemblymember Rudy Salas (who lost twice to Valadao) decides not to run a third time, that’s a second strike.

If former Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln (his mother is of Mexican descent) fails against Rep. Adam Gray, D-Merced, in the 13th District, that’s a third strike.

If former Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln (his mother is of Mexican descent) fails against Rep. Adam Gray, D-Merced, in the 13th District, that’s a third strike.

But we’re not out yet: Ceres Mayor Javier López is also running as a Republican in a “leans Democrat” district after Proposition 50 was passed. And if Clovis Veterans Memorial District CEO Lorenzo Ríos, a Republican, loses to Costa in the “likely Democrat” 21st District, there’s the final strike.

We’ll have to wait until 2028 or 2030 if the incumbents keep their hold on power.

Demographics support a Latino

The 18th District, sitting just east of the Valley, could deliver. Thanks to Proposition 50, the district now includes the city of Coalinga and western slivers of Fresno, Kings and Merced counties.

Rep. Zoe Lufgren, a Democrat, represents the district but her age – she’ll be 78 next month – could lead to early retirement or challenges from politicians looking for an opening into an office with no term limits. Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas, whose district is nestled within the redrawn 18th Congressional District, is a prolific fundraiser who could mount a serious campaign.

Data on the newly redrawn congressional districts by the USC Center for Inclusive Democracy explains explains why a Latino candidate would most likely come from Lufgren’s district: The Latino share of the population ranges from 74.1% in the redrawn 22nd District to 63.5% in Costa’s district.

Latino registered voters range from 50% in the 22nd District to 58% in Lufgren’s district. Democrats, who have traditionally garnered the lion’s share of Latino voters, enjoy a registration edge of 16 points in the 22nd and a whopping 32 points in Lufgren’s district.

March 6 is the deadline to file for the 2026 primary.

Four Latino-majority congressional districts

When the California Citizens Redistricting Commission released redrawn congressional maps in 2021, it sparked hope that the Latino-rich San Joaquín Valley would finally see one of their own represent them in the House of Representatives.

After all, the commission came up with four Latino-majority congressional districts north of the Los Angeles-Santa Barbara region: Three in the Valley and one in San José. But two elections later nada.

It hasn’t been for lack of trying. Assemblymember Esmeralda Soria, a Democrat now running for state Senate, made a run against Costa in 2020 but failed to survive the primary.

Valadao’s unsuccessful challengers through the years have included former U.S. Senate staffer Amanda Renteria, the son of farmworker icon Dolores Huerta, the mother of former state Sen. Dean Flórez and a former executive director of the Central California Hispanic Chamber of Commerce.

At the time, Flórez said “every poll in the book” showed that Reyes could win. More than two decades later, it would be a shame if the first Latino to represent the Valley comes from ... Silicon Valley.

This story was originally published November 12, 2025 at 5:30 AM with the headline "San José voters could elect Central Valley’s first Latino Congress member | Opinion."