Our View: El Niño is here, are you ready?
When it comes to the weather, you can either be prepared or you can be sorry you weren’t.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency is trying to help everyone become better prepared for what is expected to be a whopper of a winter. And it has already started. The long-awaited El Nino is breaking all kinds of records with more on the horizon. FEMA has developed a website that includes a trove of resources, with reports on landslides, debris flows, protecting critical documents, finding real-time stream-flow data, filing claims and figuring out exactly what an El Nino is and likely impacts here.
Yes, the agency is more concerned with the coastal regions than with the Valley, but that doesn’t mean we won’t face our share of challenges.
After reviewing El Ninos in “1982-83 and 1997-98, it is entirely possible that ... many parts of the Central Valley will experience widespread flooding,” said Mary Simms, FEMA’s external affairs officer.
Those living in low-lying areas near rivers or streams, should “buy flood insurance now,” said Simms. In fact, they should have bought it last month, since it takes 30 days for the insurance to take effect.
El Ninos are born in the Pacific Ocean in a vast pool near the equator. As the water warms, it rises. Ocean levels, measured on the coast, are at an all-time high and the water temperature in that pool is the highest ever recorded – including in 1997 when warm storms caused severe flooding throughout the state.
The last significant flooding in Merced came in April 2006, when a levee and water poured into the Golden Wheel trailer park, forcing 25 families to take shelter. While Black Rascal and Bear creeks can get out of their banks east of the city, the danger is worse near the San Joaquin River in towns like Livingston and Cressy and in Gustine near Orestimba Creek.
The Merced River did enormous damage in Yosemite Valley in 1996-97 when the Pineapple Express melted heavy early winter snows; on New Year’s Day the Valley floor was under 9 feet of water.
Technically, that flood wasn’t the fault of El Nino. Simms said it was due to “an atmospheric river” that carried the warm water to California. Some are predicting this El Nino could bring even more water to the state.
In 2011, the U.S. Geological Survey said a huge rain event could cause more than $700 billion in damages and hobble the state’s economy for a decade. Its study was based on arrival of back-to-back winter storms the size of the 1986 El Nino. The study suggested that 9 million California homes could be flooded as levees became overwhelmed and rivers swelled. The point of the study, said the USGS, was not to frighten people but to help them prepare.
Of course, 2011 is the year our horrible drought began. After four dry years, the last thing we want to see is excess water rushing down our rivers and out to the ocean. Still, all reservoirs must be operated with safety as the highest priority.
In the meantime, thousands of acres of new hillside nut orchards have been planted in eastern Merced and Stanislaus counties. Those orchards were ripped for new trees, leaving a lot of loose dirt. Without established ground-cover plants, that soil is still loose. Mix it with enough rain, and it could wash down into the ravines then into the rivers. Once it settles to the bottom of the riverbeds, it can make flooding more likely.
Some weather professionals predict Southern California will take the brunt of El Nino, and it will land more lightly up here. Regardless, it’s best to learn of the dangers before they arrive. Create a “flood kit” using FEMA’s suggestions at www.ready.gov. Bookmark a weather page that tracks incoming storms. Follow river flows online, and be aware of the flood stages. There’s much more to know, such as reservoir capacity and snow depth.
If you’re not prepared, you’ll be sorry you weren’t.
This story was originally published December 10, 2015 at 9:35 PM with the headline "Our View: El Niño is here, are you ready?."