49ers preview: Forget the quarterbacks. Will defense rebound? Can Aiyuk and Samuel star?
The 49ers are expected to report to training camp Tuesday, with their first practices to come soon after. The biggest story of San Francisco’s long offseason, of course, was the decision to trade up for rookie quarterback Trey Lance, which put Jimmy Garoppolo’s future in question.
There’s no doubt that story line will get looked at (by us) ad nauseam. For now, let’s look at five questions facing the 49ers ahead of training camp outside of their evolving quarterback situation with Lance and Garoppolo.
1. How will last season’s injured stars bounce back?
The 49ers had one of the worst injury years in recent memory last season, leading to their disappointing 6-10 finish after a Super Bowl trip in 2019.
According to Football Outsiders, San Francisco lost 166.6 adjusted games from players to injury, which was the worst of any team in 2020 and second-most in the NFL since 2001 (only the 2016 Chicago Bears were worse).
The Super Bowl champion Buccaneers, meanwhile, were the healthiest team in the league on aggregate, losing just 30.6 games to injury. That matches the relatively good injury luck the 49ers had when they made their Super Bowl run a season prior. The only projected Week 1 starters that didn’t play against the Chiefs were center Weston Richburg and nose tackle D.J. Jones. All the team’s most important players were healthy and available throughout the playoff run.
Things were much different in 2020. San Francisco lost Jimmy Garoppolo, Nick Bosa, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Raheem Mostert, Richard Sherman, Dee Ford, K’Waun Williams and a slew of others for significant chunks of the campaign. Of their skill players on offense, only fullback Kyle Juszczyk, running back Jerick McKinnon and backup tight end Ross Dwelley appeared in all 16 games.
Oddly enough, the injury bug has bit the 49ers worse than most teams for years. Football Outsiders’ numbers say San Francisco has finished in the bottom 12 for eight straight seasons, including the last two, which came after coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch overhauled the medical and training staffs. The team put together a new “player performance” outfit led by former NHL sports science specialist Ben Peterson.
The 49ers prioritize cutting-edge practices when it comes to player performance. All players wear tracking devices in their shoulder pads for games and practices — and have personalized nutrition and workout programs based on their workloads. But the results haven’t been great.
So what’s that mean for 2021? It’s anyone’s guess. Players say football has a 100% injury rate and they all deal with nicks throughout the season. The general consensus is the 49ers will have a chance to compete for the NFC West title if their key players remain available as they did throughout 2019.
If they have similar injury luck to last season, then they should expect similar results.
2. Will new coordinator DeMeco Ryans be able to replicate 2019?
Shanahan entering his fifth season as 49ers coach will have a new defensive coordinator for the first time. And while many believe former linebackers coach DeMeco Ryans will follow Robert Saleh’s footsteps and become a head coach one day, it remains to be seen what Ryans will do with the defense. This is the first time Ryans will have final say on the design of a defense while also calling plays.
Additionally, San Francisco has far more question marks on defense than previous seasons. For instance, will the secondary be as good as it was in 2019 without Sherman anchoring one side of the field and being able to predict what offenses will do? Will oft-injured cornerback Jason Verrett be able to back up his first healthy season since 2015? And will Emmanuel Moseley be good enough on the other side to avoid getting picked on by the elite receivers throughout the division?
What about the pass rush?
Bosa, though he looks healthy in videos that have circled around social media, is coming off an ACL tear, adding another bullet point to a notable injury history dating back to high school. Ford’s status remains unclear after missing 15 games last season with neck and back injuries after having a laundry list of back issues dating back to Auburn. Can free agent addition Samson Ebukam, who was brought in to play Ford’s role, become a viable pass rusher off the edge?
The 49ers are also still missing DeForest Buckner, one of their best and most consistent players from the Super Bowl team two years ago. He was traded to the Colts in 2020 and replaced by Javon Kinlaw, who is coming off a so-so rookie campaign that had flashes of dominance but just 1.5 sacks in 14 games.
3. Beyond Aiyuk and Samuel, what will the 49ers receiving corps look like?
There are two certainties regarding the 49ers’ receiving corps (injuries permitting, of course). Last year’s first-round pick, Brandon Aiyuk, has the potential to become a star in Shanahan’s offense. Samuel, who had a standout rookie season in 2019 with 961 all-purpose yards, is a lock for the No. 2 job after playing in just seven games in 2020 because of foot and hamstring injuries.
Other than those two, who will likely serve as secondary targets in the passing game behind All-Pro tight end George Kittle, San Francisco’s receiving corps is loaded with question marks.
There’s no clear No. 3 receiver — and projecting what the group looks like before training camp might be as random as picking names out of a hat. In that sense, the free agent departure of Kendrick Bourne to the Patriots may be an underrated loss.
Jalen Hurd, a promising third-round pick from 2019, hasn’t played real football since the 2019 preseason. He tore his ACL last August while rehabbing a back injury that caused him to miss his entire rookie year. Though he would be the betting favorite for the third receiver role if he’s fully recovered from both ailments (a big if, to be sure).
The list of other’s competing for roles and roster spots isn’t very encouraging. Richie James, Jauan Jennings, Mohamed Sanu, Travis Benjamin, Trent Sherfield, River Cracraft, Bennie Fowler, Andy Jones, Kevin White and Austin Watkins aren’t keeping defensive coordinators up at night.
The team’s lack of proven depth at receiver could prove costly if Aiyuk or Samuel misses time due to injury. That’s notable, given San Francisco decided against drafting a receiver for the first time since 2002 despite having a need.
But there is a counterpoint to the concerns about the position. The 49ers might be one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL this season, particularly if Lance ends up getting starts at quarterback. They were the second-most productive rushing team in the league when they went to the Super Bowl in 2019 with a formula that relied heavily on two-receiver sets, with multiple tight ends and Juszczyk at fullback.
If Shanahan decides to emphasize the running game in that way, the need for a viable third receiver could be less pressing.
4. Which 49ers players in contract years will step up?
Players often have their best seasons in contract years. That was true for Arik Armstead in 2019, when he led the team with 10.0 sacks ahead of his looming free agency; he didn’t have more than 3.5 during his other five seasons. Ford was one of the best edge rushers in the NFL during his final season with the Chiefs in 2018 before netting a big pay day with the 49ers after a trade.
The salary cap this year was depressed by the pandemic, which led to a slew of free agent veterans coming back on minimal, short-term contracts. The salary cap shrank for the first time since the previous collective bargaining agreement was implemented in 2011.
49ers such as Verrett, Laken Tomlinson, Jones, Mostert, K’Waun Williams, Jeff Wilson Jr. and Jaquiski Tartt are all unsigned beyond this season. Their uncertain futures are important to point out, given the looming big pay day for Bosa.
San Francisco has already committed large deals to Kittle, left tackle Trent Williams and Garoppolo (though it’s likely this season is Garoppolo’s last in red and gold, should he stick through the trade deadline and not get overtaken by Lance).
The 49ers were projected to be in the middle of the pack when it comes to cap space in 2022, with roughly $24 million available. But linebacker Fred Warner signed a five-year, $95 million extension Wednesday that will impact that number. And Bosa is still owed big money.
The financial picture is convoluted when it comes to projecting the future of players who are slated for free agency next spring. How they play this year will define their standing with the team and whether or not they stick around.
5. Can 49ers rookies contribute like the 2019 class?
A defining characteristic of the 2019 season was the impact of the rookie class.
Bosa, the second player drafted, won defensive rookie of the year while solidifying himself as one of the game’s top defensive ends. Samuel was a versatile and valuable cog in Shanahan’s offense. Linebacker Dre Greenlaw made one of the most important plays of the NFL season with his last-second stop in Seattle during Week 17’s victory that gave the 49ers’ the top playoff seed.
So, will Lance, guard Aaron Banks, running back Trey Sermon, cornerbacks Ambry Thomas and Deommodore Lenoir, and safety Talanoa Hufanga be able replicate the impact of those rookies from two years ago? Will Jaylon Moore earn the swing tackle job? Will Elijah Mitchell be a key member of the running back group?
Lance, of course, has the best chance to contribute in a sizable way, particularly if Shanahan can replicate the type of success he had with Robert Griffin III in Washington in 2012, when he was named the offensive rookie of the year. It would be a massive whiff if Banks doesn’t win the starting job at right guard. Sermon could become the team’s leading rusher after his impressive college career at Oklahoma and Ohio State. Thomas might have been a second-round draft pick if he didn’t opt out of the 2020 season with Michigan (don’t be surprised if he eventually overtakes Moseley at the cornerback spot opposite Verrett).
Lenoir and Hufanga both have robust resumes in the Pac-12, but it’s difficult to predict the success of fifth-round picks, though that’s where the 49ers found Kittle and Greenlaw.
Based on San Francisco’s roster, it appears the team needs their rookies to contribute as they did two years ago. Particularly with 2020’s injury-riddled season still fresh in everyone’s mind.
This story was originally published July 25, 2021 at 5:00 AM with the headline "49ers preview: Forget the quarterbacks. Will defense rebound? Can Aiyuk and Samuel star?."
