Deebo Samuel needs the 49ers and they need him. Will he realize he doesn’t have leverage?
The 49ers over the last two offseasons locked up three All-Pro members of their team to lucrative contracts, but those negotiations didn’t always go smoothly.
They nearly lost left tackle Trent Williams to the Kansas City Chiefs in free agency before agreeing to a six-year, $138.06 million contract last year while Williams was out enjoying a late-night dinner in Houston.
Star tight end George Kittle — whose agent called the first offer he received from San Francisco the “Valentine’s Day Massacre” — agreed to his deal just before the start of training camp in 2020. Same for linebacker Fred Warner, who earned his top-of-the-market contract just before training camp last summer after being a full participant in the team’s offseason program.
Those three deals had something in common: deadlines that spurred action.
In Williams’ case, the 49ers wanted to get the deal done early in the spring because it would shape their offseason. Had they not signed Williams, they might not have been able to make the trade for Trey Lance because they would have been in the market to find a new left tackle, which could have required their early draft capital.
For Kittle and Warner, both those deals had to be done ahead of training camp so the team and players could get ready for the upcoming season.
That’s important context to consider for receiver Deebo’s Samuel turbulent contract negotiations. Samuel, an All-Pro who had 1,770 yards from scrimmage and 14 touchdowns last season, made waves Tuesday by making his trade request public after scrubbing his Instagram of 49ers-related content earlier this month. He’s eligible for a contract extension for the first time this offseason after getting drafted in the second round in 2019.
There have been multiple reports indicating Samuel’s camp is upset about his usage. Samuel, of course, became a household name for his work both as a receiver and as a running back, a role he embraced last season by coining the term “wide back.” He sounded fine with the role at his end of season news conference after the 49ers lost the NFC title game to the Rams.
“I’m perfectly fine with it,” Samuel said. “Like I stated all year long, I’m down for whatever to help this team win in any aspect it is.”
Samuel spent the year talking about the strong relationship he built with head coach Kyle Shanahan and former assistant Mike McDaniel, who recently became head coach of the Dolphins. Samuel would meet with Shanahan in his office regularly to talk about upcoming game plans and life as a new father.
“Like I stated a while ago, it’s just a trust thing I’ve built with Kyle and Mike and all the other guys just to get the ball in my hands to get me out there to do what they know I can do,” Samuel said.
But it seems clear he no longer wants to take the pounding of a running back’s workload (he had 59 carries during the regular season) without extra compensation.
Here’s the thing: From the 49ers’ perspective, there’s no rush to get a deal done because the usual deadline for such an extension, like Kittle and Warner’s, is the start of training camp, which players report for at the end of July. Which means these are still the early phases of negotiations from San Francisco’s perspective.
And as negotiations go, two sides are generally the furthest apart in the earliest stages.
That’s where the Samuel and Kittle negotiations appear to be on a similar path. Kittle’s camp was clearly upset with the “Valentines Day Massacre” offer at the outset. The difference being Kittle didn’t publicly demand a trade from the 49ers from his social media. Cooler heads prevailed and they eventually got a deal done. It remains to be seen if the relationship with Samuel can be repaired.
Samuel’s situation is one of the most complex in recent history.
The receiver market is booming, evident by the landmark deals signed this offseason by Davante Adams (five years, $141.25 million), Tyreek Hill (four years, $120 million) and Stefon Diggs (four years, $96 million). Surely Samuel believes he should be in that realm after what he did for the 49ers in 2021, accounting for 28% of the team’s total yardage (fourth-most in the NFL) while the team had mediocre quarterback play from quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. Samuel could also make the case he’s even more valuable to San Francisco while the team transitions to Lance.
But there are few things Samuel doesn’t have going for him. In the case of Adams, Hill and Diggs, they’ve combined for six All-Pro nominations, 13 Pro Bowls and 11 seasons with at least 1,000 receiving yards before inking their contracts this spring. Samuel’s had one of each, all coming in 2021, after missing time in 2020 with various injuries. Foot and leg injuries were a knock on Samuel as a prospect coming out of South Carolina. Samuels’ had one year of elite production while Adams, Hill and Diggs each had multiple.
There’s also been a slew of talented receivers coming into the league from college, which is expected to continue with a strong draft class next week.
The usage of Samuel cuts both ways, which makes it super complicated.
The 49ers could say because Samuel has injury history, he’s less of a sure-fire bet for a lucrative contract. And Samuel is arguing that because of his injury history it’s important that he earns as much money as possible now because his earning power might not be the same if his body continues to take a pounding as it has since he entered the NFL.
Another thing not in Samuel’s favor is the language from the collective bargaining agreement signed in 2020. If San Francisco doesn’t trade Samuel and he held out for the entire season, he would not earn an accrued season, or pay for 2022, and he would become a restricted free agent next spring, meaning the 49ers would have the right to match any offer he received elsewhere (restricted free agents are not eligible for the franchise tag).
So Samuel doesn’t have a whole lot of leverage. The 49ers absolutely do not have to trade him and could make a strong case that his best shot at having a successful career is to stay with the team and play for Shanahan, whom he repeatedly said he has a strong relationship with.
Samuel appears to be dealing with the 49ers with the same ferocity he deals with opponents. But there’s no running through a defender’s face mask at the negotiating table. Sheer will isn’t going to win for Samuel like it does on the football field.
San Francisco can sit tight knowing it is months away from a real deadline: the start of training camp. All indications point to the team being unwilling to trade Samuel unless there is a tremendous haul, perhaps including at least one first-round pick.
Which begs the question: Would another team want to give up a war chest of draft capital to pay Samuel when they could just draft a receiver or two at a fraction of the cost?
My guess is Samuel and the 49ers eventually mend things over the coming months. Samuel needs the 49ers as much as they need him. Over time both sides should realize that.
This story was originally published April 22, 2022 at 7:46 AM with the headline "Deebo Samuel needs the 49ers and they need him. Will he realize he doesn’t have leverage?."
