Fantasy Basketball 2026-27: Players Whose Playoff Struggles Could Tank Their ADP

ADP doesn't tell the whole story. Well, at least not when it comes to curating your 2026 fantasy basketball draft strategy.

The 2025-26 playoffs revealed several high-profile players whose fantasy value was inflated by regular-season success. Decreased usage, poor matchups, and inefficiency in clutch moments will no doubt lead to ADPs going down ahead of 2026-27 drafts.

But veteran fantasy managers know better. They know how to separate temporary struggles from true regression. They know how to take advantage of ADP discounts by looking at underlying metrics and then buying low.

Here's what to know, and which players to keep an eye on as their ADP dips.

Why These Playoff Issues Could Tank ADP

ADP gets done dirty in the offseason by three factors that emerge during the playoffs: efficiency drops, unclear roles, and narrative carryover.

Going cold at the wrong time and costing your team in the playoffs will raise red flags for the following season. Losing out on playing time (or a starting role altogether) can also have a negative impact. And if storylines surrounding poor play and unclear roles drag into the offseason? The market notices, and ADPs take a tumble.

Players Whose Playoff Struggles Are Most Likely to Suppress 2026-27 ADP

Jalen Duren (Pistons)

Athlon talked up Duren all season long because of his impressive efficiency and usage in the regular season. Heck, the Pistons might have fallen down the standings in Cade Cunningham's absence if it hadn't been for Duren.

But mismatches against the Orlando Magic in Round 1 have exposed weaknesses in Duren's value. His field goal percentage dropped from 65% to 52.8%, and he's averaging just 10 points and 9 rebounds per game after posting 19.5 points and 10.5 rebounds during the regular season.

Derrick White (Celtics)

The veteran guard has been the Steady Eddie for a few seasons now. The guy who keeps grinding with little fanfare, while players like Jayson Tatum garner the spotlight. And even though White's efficiency dipped during the regular season, he continued to produce and help Boston be one of the top teams in the East.

The efficiency didn't correct itself in Round 1 against the 76ers. In fact, he averaged just 11 points per game while shooting a ghastly 32.1% from the floor and 27.3% from three-point range. No doubt, going 2-for-8 from the field and 0-for-4 from beyond the arc in Game 5 will haunt him all offseason long.

Brandon Ingram (Raptors)

Sure, having an inflamed heel and being ruled out late in Round 1 didn't help Ingram's case. Playing through pain can't be good for efficiency, even for an All-Star candidate.

Nevertheless, Ingram took far fewer shots against the Cavaliers than he collectively did during the regular season and shot a dismal 32% from the field. What's worse, his assists-to-turnover ratio was almost even (2.2-2.0). The disappointing performance, plus his high price tag, has made his role for next season a bit unclear.

Donovan Mitchell (Cavaliers)

The Cavs are still kicking in the playoffs. Not that Cleveland's stars have done much to help out.

That includes Mitchell, whose increased usage during the regular season yielded sparkling fantasy results. His playoff showing has been far less consistent, including a Game 4 loss when he shot just 25% from the field. Some of his struggles can be tied to teammate James Harden, who has also had an inconsistent playoffs. But that won't matter to fantasy managers who already put Mitchell on their draft board for next season.

Speaking of which …

Actionable 2026-27 Strategy: Buy Low or Fade?

Draft, Trade, and Waiver Guidance

All the players above could see their ADPs fall this summer. However, managers have to approach each fantasy asset differently.

Playoff dips for established veterans like Mitchell and White won't keep them from being starters next season. That means plenty of usage and a probable return to efficiency, but at a discounted ADP. These aren't the players to build your entire fantasy roster around, but they are great contributors to draft at a lower price. (Or trade for in dynasty leagues.)

The situation is similar for Duren. He's young and playing in the biggest playoffs of his life, so experience could be lacking. Managers in redraft leagues should keep a close eye on how he performs through the rest of the playoffs and how his offseason shapes up before buying low or waiving him.

Ingram is in a slightly different boat. The Raptors could part ways with him because of his steep contract, which makes a starting role for next season less concrete. He still has great playmaking abilities, but it isn't clear yet if his playoff slump is situational or structural. Owners across league formats should wait a little longer to see if Ingram's falling ADP can be exploited or if they should fade him.

Questions About Playoff Struggles, Answered

Which players' playoff struggles are most likely to tank their 2026-27 ADP?

The players highlighted in the report showed clear efficiency or role issues in the playoffs that could cause managers to draft them later than their regular-season production suggests.

How much could playoff struggles suppress ADP in 2026-27?

In many cases, players with poor playoff showings drop 1–2 full rounds or more compared to where their regular-season numbers would project.

Should I avoid drafting players who struggled in the 2025-26 playoffs?

Not automatically - the article breaks down which struggles appear situational versus structural.

Are there buy-low opportunities created by playoff struggles?

Yes - several players with strong underlying metrics had poor playoff matchups that may not repeat in 2026-27.

How do playoff performances typically affect the following season's ADP?

Managers often overreact to playoff results, creating meaningful discounts for players whose regular-season skill sets remain intact.

When is the best time to target these playoff-struggle players in 2026-27?

Early in drafts or on the waiver wire before their regular-season performance erases the playoff narrative.

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This story was originally published May 4, 2026 at 4:43 PM.