LeBron James' Odds for Next Team Shift Dramatically Amid NBA Playoffs

Before the NBA playoffs, it seemed like one thing was for certain: LeBron James was playing his last few games with the Los Angeles Lakers.

Former ownership and James seemed to be at an impasse. James seemed to be getting the cold shoulder as the franchise started looking towards the future with Luka Doncic and possibly Austin Reaves.

In the middle of March, per Kalshi, the prediction website, James had a 45% chance of joining the Cleveland Cavaliers next year instead of retiring or staying with the Lakers.

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But as the playoffs have progressed and the Lakers, led by James, upset the Houston Rockets, those odds have shifted significantly.

Now, James is sitting at 56% to either play for the Lakers next year or retire from basketball professionally.

The Cavaliers, who are also in the second round, are at 27%. The Golden State Warriors, who are reportedly heavily interested in adding James this summer to partner up with Steph Curry, are only at 9%.

For James, it could be that he can see the ceiling this Lakers core could have in the Western Conference if Doncic is fully healthy.

If James does stay with the Lakers, though, he would be expected to take a massive pay cut from his current $50 million with the team.

Although there is always the chance that James decides to retire at the end of the postseason, it seems as if, for now, he is expected to play at least one more season.

Where will it be, though?

Right now, at least, it seems like James might be happy to run it back in Hollywood.

The retirement in Cleveland might have to wait a little bit longer.

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This story was originally published May 4, 2026 at 7:39 PM.