NFL Executive Gives Brutal Verdict on Texas QB Arch Manning

Heading into the 2026 college football season, Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning is once again the presumed frontrunner to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2027 NFL draft.

Manning was in the same situation last year, but after a lackluster performance against then-No. 2-ranked Ohio State in the season opener, he fell out of favor quickly as he struggled to live up to the sky-high expectations placed on him because of his last name.

As he heads into his second year as the Longhorns' starter, the hype is beginning to build around Manning again - but one NFL executive is pouring cold water on Manning as the draft's "next big thing."

"He's a good quarterback prospect - 6′ 4″, athletic, can run, has plus arm talent but not special arm talent, and has improved every year," an assistant GM told SI.com's Albert Breer. "The last name is putting the ‘generational' thing on him, and I don't think he's that. His decision-making under duress is still iffy and needs work; he runs hot and cold with his accuracy. He can make pinpoint throws, but consistently misses on in-cuts, digs and slants.

"You'll bet on the kid because of the pedigree, but he's not in the Andrew Luck category. How I'd look at it: Luck was freaky smart, a freaky athlete. The floor was extremely high, the failure rate really low. Arch doesn't have a low floor, but it's definitely lower than that. And he has a ceiling that could match Luck's - the true physical ability could match it. But some of the QB-specific play, he's not there yet."

Whether or not Manning belongs in the Luck conversation is a question that will keep NFL scouts busy over the next 12 months.

He may not have shown NFL No. 1 overall pick potential to date, but few would argue right now that Manning isn't at least a first-round pick.

In his first season as Texas' starter, Manning ended the year with a modest 3,163 yards passing, 26 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. He also rushed for 399 yards and 10 more scores, and led the Longhorns to a 10-3 record.

But the good news is as last season progressed, Manning grew and improved. In his first five games, he averaged 203.2 yards passing per game with 11 touchdowns and five interceptions. Over his last eight games, however, he averaged 251.5 yards passing per game with 15 touchdowns and just two picks.

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This story was originally published May 4, 2026 at 8:09 PM.