UEFA Champions League Semifinal Second Leg Predictions: Finalists Decided
The Parisian barnstormer would've been enough to compensate for an entire year of dreary soccer, but those who feared the worst in the Spanish capital proved to be misguided.
The attritional slog some projected between Atlético Madrid and Arsenal didn't play out, and remarkably, the two teams combined for more shots than the previous evening's otherworldly encounter.
Paris Saint-Germain and Bayern Munich's nine-goal thriller ranks among the sport‘s greatest-ever games, and there‘s no reason to suggest, even with the increased stakes, that anything different will manifest in Bavaria this week.
The Champions League semifinal first legs embarked on different paths between the first and 90th minutes, but we've ultimately been left with two wide-open ties at the halfway mark. The excitement is palpable, with any of the four combinations for the final possible.
Here's how Sports Illustrated predicts the upcoming second legs to play out.
Arsenal vs. Atlético Madrid
- Date: Tuesday, May 5
- Time: 8 p.m. BST / 3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT
The second first leg was never going to match the meteoric heights soccer ascended to at Parc des Princes, but a punch was packed at the Metropolitano.
It was a fixture laden with refereeing controversy. Three penalties were awarded on the night, and Mikel Arteta felt most aggrieved about the one that eventually wasn't. On-field official Danny Makkelie had his mind changed by the VAR regarding Dávid Hancko's foul on Eberechi Eze, meaning the spoils were shared in the Spanish capital.
Atléti crucially have Julian Álvarez available for the return leg after he emphatically leveled the tie from the spot in the second half last Wednesday. Their energy was sapped when he left the field due to injury, and the Argentine has a key role to play in lifting Diego Simeone's side to their third Champions League final since 2014.
Arsenal, like their opponents, have never won this competition, and they've avoided the big game for the past 20 years. The Gunners have so far failed to seize critical moments in 2026, but can Mikel Arteta's side defy the dark arts this time around?
They thumped Atléti 4–0 at home during the league phase, and are facing a team with a wretched Champions League record on English shores.
Prediction: Arsenal 2–1 Atlético Madrid
Bayern Munich vs. Paris Saint-Germain
- Date: Wednesday, May 6
- Time: 8 p.m. BST / 3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT
How can they possibly match that, we hear you ask?
Well, if anything, it'd be a major surprise if the Allianz Arena isn't relentlessly belting out its familiar jingle after a Bayern Munich goal on Wednesday night. We're surely in for a repeat in Bavaria, even if the first leg was something utterly unique.
You can lament the defending all you want, but that wasn't the story in Paris. It was a celebration of attacking mastery and the liberation of the sport's finest artists. Genius telepathy and individual brilliance in the face of exclusive man-to-man marking facilitated oceans of space for two remarkable frontlines to flourish, and there‘s not going to be a relaxing of either Vincent Kompany or Luis Enrique's ideals this week.
PSG boast a slender lead, but Bayern will feel confident of pulling off the comeback after scoring the first leg's final two goals to trim their deficit from three to one.
The holders' efficiency in front of goal renders them ever so dangerous, but injury concerns at full back could slightly reduce their attacking threat in Germany.
Prediction: Bayern Munich 4–2 PSG
Champions League Semifinal First Leg Predictions
| Kick-Off Time | Fixture | Prediction |
|---|---|---|
| 8 p.m. BST / 3 p.m. ET | Arsenal vs. Atlético Madrid | 2–1 |
| 8 p.m. BST / 3 p.m. ET | Bayern Munich vs. PSG | 4–2 |
READ THE LATEST CHAMPIONS LEAGUE NEWS, ANALYSIS AND INSIGHT FROM SI FC
- Arsenal vs. Atletico Madrid: Preview, Predictions and Lineups
- Real Madrid's Worst Seasons of the 21st Century-Ranked
- Arsenal XI vs. Atletico Madrid: Big Havertz Decision Made-Injury News, Predicted Lineup
- Will Bukayo Saka Be Fit for Champions League Semifinal After Injury Scare?
- Mikel Arteta Gives Key Reason Why Arsenal Cannot Match Excitement of PSG vs. Bayern Munich
This article was originally published on www.si.com as UEFA Champions League Semifinal Second Leg Predictions: Finalists Decided.
Copyright ABG-SI LLC. SPORTS ILLUSTRATED is a registered trademark of ABG-SI LLC. All Rights Reserved.
This story was originally published May 4, 2026 at 9:00 PM.