2027 NFL Mock Draft: Are We Sure Arch Manning Is QB1?
The 2027 NFL Draft is still 10 months away, and it already feels like Texas quarterback Arch Manning is being chiseled in stone as the No. 1 overall pick.
But what happens if he doesn't take the expected step forward for the Longhorns this season? What happens if the inconsistency that plagued him throughout his first year as a full-time starter continues to be an issue, and he struggles to live up to the ridiculous hype?
It's hard to imagine every QB-needy team passing on him at the top of next year's NFL Draft, but if there's stiff competition at the top of the board, Manning could end up falling out of the QB1 spot.
Who could leapfrog him for the No. 1 overall pick? What might the rest of the board look like as a result?
Here's an updated look at how the first round of next year's NFL Draft could turn out, using the latest Super Bowl odds to determine the pick order:
1. Miami Dolphins
Dante Moore | QB | Oregon
Had Moore declared for the 2026 NFL Draft, the Las Vegas Raiders would have had a much more challenging decision to make between him and Fernando Mendoza at No. 1 overall. If he picks up where he left off last year, Moore's polished skills set track record of consistency and success could give him the nod if Arch Manning is still more upside than proven commodity after another year at the college level.
2. New York Jets
Arch Manning | QB | Texas
This year, the Jets missed out on having a worthy QB2 for this pick, thanks to a class that was diluted by failed expectations and top prospects returning to school. It's possible that could happen again, but if Manning can simply avoid regressing this season, his upside alone will get him drafted in this range. The talent is there, and the position is too important, for Manning not to be one of the first names off the board to a QB-needy team, barring a complete collapse in 2026.
3. Arizona Cardinals
Jeremiah Smith | WR | Ohio State
I doubt spending a third-round pick on Carson Beck this year would keep the Cards from spending a top-three pick on a worthy quarterback prospect. That said, in this scenario, taking the third-best quarterback on the board instead of the best overall player in the entire draft would be risky business for a team that needs far more than just a new franchise passer. Smith has all the traits to be a dominant pass-catcher at the next level.
4. Cleveland Browns
Julian Sayin | QB | Ohio State
It feels like a two-horse race at the top of the 2027 QB board between Manning and Moore, but the No. 3 spot has a ton of worthy challengers. Based on what we saw last year, Sayin could end up emerging to take that spot, despite an undersized frame and a lack of elite arm strength. He's a smart, accurate passer who knows how to distribute the ball with anticipation and touch, and he makes sound decisions that avoid turnovers.
5. Las Vegas Raiders
Leonard Moore | CB | Notre Dame
There's plenty to rebuild around Mendoza on both sides of the ball, and the Raiders could benefit from multiple quarterbacks coming off the board ahead of them, pushing down better prospects at positions they actually need. When watching tape on 2026 prospects, Moore consistently flashed as the best person on the field, and he's got everything he needs to be a true shutdown corner at the next level, one of many things Vegas doesn't have yet.
6. Tennessee Titans
Colin Simmons | Edge | Texas
Robert Saleh needs as many difference-makers as possible on his side of the ball, and this scenario would allow him to steal an easy top-five talent. Simmons has an impressive blend of size, length, speed, power and balance that has made him an absolute headache for college offensive tackles and quarterbacks, and there's no reason to believe he won't be able to do the same in the pros.
7. New Orleans Saints
Dylan Stewart | Edge | South Carolina
The Cam Jordan era appears to be over in New Orleans, so it's time for the Saints to find another high-end edge rusher who can put up consistent production and create splash plays. Stewart is lightning quick off the snap, with a knack for getting his hands on the ball and turning it over. He needs to develop more strength and power to be a true three-down impact player, but the pass-rushing upside is through the roof.
8. Atlanta Falcons
Trevor Goosby | OT | Texas
Jake Matthews has been a reliable presence for the Falcons at left tackle, but he'll turn 35 years old in February, so it's time to find his replacement. Goosby could have been a fairly early pick in this year's NFL Draft, but made the wise decision to return to school and sharpen his skill set with another year of starting experience. If he builds on last year's success, he could easily play his way into being a top-10 selection.
9. New York Giants
Cam Coleman | WR | Texas
There's still no telling when Malik Nabers will be back to full strength after the serious knee injury that cost him nearly the entire 2025 season, and Wan'Dale Robinson left in free agency. This leaves the Giants with more questions than answers at wide receiver (even with third-round rookie Malachi Fields in the mix), which could lead them to spend their top pick on a dynamic pass-catcher with WR1 potential. Coleman should thrive in Austin after dealing with lackluster quarterback play at Auburn.
10. Pittsburgh Steelers
LaNorris Sellers | QB | South Carolina
Aaron Rodgers says he's retiring after this season, and while the Steelers have invested multiple draft picks at quarterback in each of the past two drafts, that's not likely to keep them from taking another big swing if they're enamored with one of this year's top prospects. Sellers needs to find more consistency from the pocket, but he's got as much potential as any quarterback in this class, with a rare combination of size, arm strength, and athleticism.
11. Carolina Panthers
Jordan Seaton | OT | LSU
The Panthers just spent a first-round pick on a tackle, but with Taylor Moton turning 32 in August, and Ikem Ekwonu better off sliding inside to guard, they could still be in the market for another long-term investment at the position. Seaton has All-Pro potential from a physical standpoint, and some technical refinement could make him an ideal bookend across from Monroe Freeling in Carolina.
12. Washington Commanders
Ryan Coleman-Williams | WR | Alabama
Terry McLaurin is still one of the league's most underrated receivers, but the Commanders have little proven depth behind him at the position, let alone the kind of prospect who could quickly develop into a worthy successor for the WR1 spot. Coleman-Williams struggled last year to live up to the sky-high expectations he set for himself as a freshman the previous season, but all the talent is there for him to parlay a bounce-back campaign into a top-15 draft slot.
13. Minnesota Vikings
Ellis Robinson IV | CB | Georgia
Brian Flores is one of the best defensive minds in the NFL, and his system thrives when it has as many playmakers as possible in the secondary. Robinson is a smooth mover with the smarts and ball skills to be an ideal fit for this scheme, and he'll have the benefit of experience against top competition in the SEC, which should help him make a seamless transition to the pro level.
14. New York Jets (from IND)
David Stone | DL | Oklahoma
There are some solid young pieces along this defensive front already, but the Jets could still use another disruptive interior presence to take the group to the next level. Stone has flashed big-play ability as both a run-stuffer and a pass rusher, and he's still just scrathing the surface of his potential. Lining him up next to a massive space-eater like T'Vondre Sweat would allow Stone to take advantage of many 1-on-1 opportunities.
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
A'Mauri Washington | DL | Oregon
The Bucs are used to having one of the NFL's most dominant interior defenders in Vita Vea, but the 2018 first-round pick will be 32 years old next season. It would be wise for Tampa Bay to invest in an understudy, and Washington would be the perfect candidate. He could have been a high pick in 2026, but opted to return for some unfinished business. Todd Bowles would get an even more polished version in 2027, allowing for an even bigger impact right away.
16. Chicago Bears
Matayo Uiagalelei | Edge | Oregon
The Bears are just a few defensive pieces away from being one of the scariest teams in the entire NFL. One of those needs is another high-end edge rusher to pair with Montez Sweat, and Uiagalelei would be an ideal fit as an every-down player with a well-rounded skill set. Like many of his Oregon teammates, Uiagalelei opted to return to school instead of entering this year's NFL Draft, and another year of experience and production should make him a first-round lock with tons of potential.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars
KJ Bolden | S | Georgia
There aren't too many glaring needs on this roster, but the Jags could use a high-end safety with big-play ability all over the field. Despite a lack of ideal size for the position, Bolden is a versatile playmaker who can line up over the top, down in the box, or even in the slot. That versatility is worth a ton in today's NFL, and his combination of intelligence, athleticism, instincts and ball skills would make him a dangerous weapon for this defense.
18. New York Jets (from DAL)
Zabien Brown | CB | Alabama
Trading away Sauce Gardner has left the Jets without a true shutown corner on the roster, but with three first-round picks in 2027, they're in prime position to come away with a new one. Brown is a blue-chip talent with all the physical traits to quickly develop into that kind of impact player, with the instincts and ball skills to be a big-play magnet for a defense that didn't log a single interception under Aaron Glenn last season.
19. Dallas Cowboys (from GB)
Kelley Jones | CB | Mississippi State
The Cowboys have made some key investements in the front seven over the past couple of years, but the secondary needs more attention if they want this defense to consistently be one of the league's best. Jones has rare size and length for the position, and quickly became one of my early favorites when I started looking at tape for the 2027 class. He could fly up the draft board if he builds on what we saw from him last year.
20. Cincinnati Bengals
Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa | LB | Notre Dame
If the Bengals want their defense to be reliable anytime soon, they've got to upgrade the talent at the second level, despite multiple early-round investments in recent years. Viliamu-Asa is a complete player who can make big plays against both the run and pass, with an every-down skill set and consistency as a tackler Cincinnati lacks at the position right now.
21. Denver Broncos
Jamari Johnson | TE | Oregon
Denver already has an experienced veteran in Evan Engram, and a promising fourth-round rookie in Justin Joly, but they could afford a luxury pick without many glaring needs on the roster right now. If a matchup nightmare like Johnson is still on the board when they pick, the Broncos could have a hard time passing up the opportunity to give Bo Nix yet another dynamic weapon with size, athleticism, and alignment versatility.
22. Houston Texans
Kewan Lacy | RB | Ole Miss
There are some solid backs on Houston's roster right now, but nobody that brings the kind of featured-back potential and big-play juice that Lacy would add to the mix. He's a consistent home-run threat, with the versatility to make a big impact on the ground and through the air, giving C.J. Stroud another valuable playmaker to help balance out a young and promising offense.
23. Philadelphia Eagles
Cayden Green | OL | Missouri
Eagles GM Howie Roseman knows you can't go wrong investing in the offensive line early and often, so I wouldn't be surprised to see this kind of pick from Philly next year. Green has a ton of starting experience against SEC competition at tackle, but he could be even more successful if he slides inside to guard at the next level. That positional versatility would be extremely valuable for the Eagles' future in the offensive trenches.
24. San Francisco 49ers
Austin Siereveld | OT | Ohio State
Trent Williams is back for another year, but the future Hall of Famer turns 38 this summer, so it's long past time for the 49ers to invest in his successor. Siereveld flashed first-round potential at times last season, and with another year of refinement, he could develop into a quality starter at a premium position for a perennial playoff contender.
25. Kansas City Chiefs
Trey'Dez Green | TE | LSU
Travis Kelce is an annual rental at this point, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see one of the most prolific tight ends in NFL history call it a career after this season. Green is a towering target with impressive athleticism for his size, giving him tons of upside as a pass-catching weapon at the next level. He could be a dangerous addition to a Kansas City offense that already has some explosive playmakers for Patrick Mahomes.
26. New England Patriots
Quincy Rhodes Jr. | Edge | Arkansas
If Mike Vrabel wants to get his defense on the same level as Drake Maye and the offense, he's going to need an impact edge rusher who can get after the passer consistently. Rhodes is another talented prospect who would've been on the first-round bubble this year, but would solidify himself as a top-32 pick with another strong, productive season for the Hogs.
27. Detroit Lions
Ahmad Moten Sr. | DL | Miami (FL)
Injuries have exposed the Lions' lack of quality depth in the defensive trenches over the last few seasons, so it wouldn't be surprising to see them prioritize that area of the roster early in next year's NFL Draft. Moten has the size and versatility to line up at multiple spots along the defensive front, improving depth across the board and giving Detroit another starting-caliber talent up front.
28. Los Angeles Chargers
Nick Marsh | WR | Indiana
The Chargers picked up the fifth-year option on Quentin Johnson's rookie contract, but if they're not thrilled enough with his 2026 performace to give him a long-term extension, they could look to spend another first-rounder on a receiver. Marsh showed flashes of potential at Michigan State, and has the kind of size/athleticism combo that could make him an ideal fit replacement if Johnston doesn't stay.
29. Baltimore Ravens
Ahmad Hardy | RB | Missouri
This obviously hinges on Hardy making a full recovery from a gunshot wound he suffered earlier this year. On the field, Hardy is an explosive playmaker who put up huge numbers for the Tigers last season (1,649 yards rushing, 16 rushing TDs), and he's got the skills to be a full-time featured back at the next level. Derrick Henry continues to prove his unicorn status with unreal production well into his 30s, but Baltimore will eventually need a succession plan to keep the offense balanced.
30. Seattle Seahawks
Carter Smith | OL | Indiana
The defending Super Bowl champs don't have many holes to fill, but if they want to offense to improve after some key offseason departures (offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, Super Bowl MVP running back Kenneth Walker III), bolstering the interior of the offensive line would be ideal. Smith brings championship experience and valuable leadership to the table, and could be an even better guard in the pros after playing tackle in college.
31. Buffalo Bills
Charlie Becker | WR | Indiana
When you have a superstar quarterback and you're chasing the first Super Bowl in franchise history, there's no such thing as too many offensive weapons. DJ Moore gives Josh Allen a big-play receiver, but he could still use a go-to target in clutch situations, and that's exactly what Becker was for Mendoza and the national champs last year. Becker would give Allen a third-down, red-zone merchant who thrives on back-shoulder throws.
32. Cleveland Browns (from LAR)
Damon Wilson Jr. | Edge | Miami (FL)
Getting Jared Verse in the Myles Garrett trade means the Browns still have a proven edge rusher with tons of upside, but that shouldn't stop them from targeting another one with this pick next year. Wilson had impressive tape at Missouri before transferring to Miami, where he'll get to learn from Hall of Famer Jason Taylor, who just helped put Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor both in the first round.
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This story was originally published June 11, 2026 at 4:01 AM.