Sports

SI's 2026 NFL Preseason QB Rankings: Reigning MVP Matthew Stafford Is No. 3

By Matt Verderame Sports Illustrated

Updated July 17, 2026 3:07 AM

It's a new year. It's also primarily the same cast of characters under center.

Looking around the NFL going into 2026 training camps, only Malik Willis, Fernando Mendoza, Geno Smith and Kyler Murray represent new starters for their current teams, and only Mendoza is making his debut (unless Kirk Cousins has something to say about it).

Otherwise, it's the same lot trying to knock off Sam Darnold and the Seahawks, who, the last time we saw them, were trouncing the Patriots in Super Bowl LX. But while Darnold has been excellent over the past two seasons in Minnesota and Seattle, he's far from owning the top spot on this list.

To that point, it's a two-horse race between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. And in that fight, the question is whether you prefer the recent numbers or the overall body of work, along with the jewelry, some of which spawned from head-to-head postseason matchups.

But before we get to the top, we start at the bottom.

32. Shedeur Sanders, Cleveland Browns

Cleveland genuinely debating whether to start Sanders or Deshaun Watson should be a fireable offense. That said, assuming coach Todd Monken comes to his senses and plays Sanders, there's plenty to prove. As a fifth-round rookie, Sanders completed 56.6% of attempts for 1,400 yards with seven touchdowns and 10 interceptions.

The good news? Sanders has a new, offensive-minded coach in Monken, an emerging star in second-year tight end Harold Fannin Jr., and a pair of top-50 picks at receiver in KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston. The bad news? This is the Browns, and they haven't had a stable situation at quarterback since Bernie Kosar in the 1980s.

31. Jacoby Brissett, Arizona Cardinals

Somehow, Brissett holding out this offseason for more money was a real thing despite his 1–11 record in 2025. While Brissett had some decent top-line numbers for the miserable three-win Cardinals last year with 23 touchdowns against eight interceptions, he also posted a -24.3 EPA, ranking 26th in the league.

In Arizona, Brissett is in a situation similar to Sanders's. His new coach is former offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur, and the skill-position talent is solid with All-Pro tight end Trey McBride, alongside wideouts Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson. If the new backfield of Jeremiyah Love and Tyler Allgeier works out, maybe Brissett can surprise.

30. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers

The Panthers went to the postseason last year after winning the NFC South with an 8–9 record, but it was more in spite of Young than because of him. The 2023 No. 1 pick was 28th in EPA (-40.8) and EPA per dropback (-0.08) while also ranking 30th with 6.3 yards per attempt. Of qualifying quarterbacks, only Spencer Rattler, Joe Flacco and Cam Ward were worse.

Unfortunately for Young, there's not much reason for optimism. While he will turn 25 years old on July 25, he's shown little improvement, and outside of second-year receiver Tetairoa McMillan, there's not much firepower for Young to target.

29. Geno Smith, New York Jets

After leading the league in interceptions with the Raiders last year (17), he returned to the Jets after an offseason trade that sent him to the franchise that drafted him in 2013.

In New York, the 35-year-old Smith will attempt to regain the form that saw him earn Pro Bowl honors in 2022 and '23 with the Seahawks, when he threw for 50 touchdowns against 20 interceptions while winning 17 games. With the Jets, Smith is likely a placeholder for a year before the Jets use one of their two first-round picks on a quarterback in the loaded ‘27 class.

28. Malik Willis, Miami Dolphins

Willis signed a three-year, $67.5 million contract this offseason, finally becoming the unquestioned starter after stints with the Titans and Packers. In Green Bay, Willis started three games (11 appearances) over the past two seasons, completing 78.7% of his attempts with six touchdowns and zero interceptions.

If Willis is going to succeed in Miami, he'll have to earn it. The Dolphins' top receivers are Jalen Tolbert, Tutu Atwell and Malik Washington, who combined for 70 catches and 712 yards.

27. Michael Penix Jr., Atlanta Falcons

Assuming Penix is healthy for the start of the season, he should get the nod over Tua Tagovailoa. And if he does, this becomes the most important year of his career after starting just 12 games across his first two pro campaigns.

With an offensive-minded, two-time Coach of the Year in Kevin Stefanski at the helm, Penix has his best shot at success. Then there's the supporting cast, including All-Pros in tight end Kyle Pitts Sr., running back Bijan Robinson and star receiver Drake London. In a very winnable division and buoyed by a third-place schedule, Penix could be ripe to break out.

26. Fernando Mendoza, Las Vegas Raiders

Mendoza might not start the season with Cousins as a veteran option to help ease the No. 1 pick in. That said, he projects to start most of the games for Las Vegas, which is very likely going to be a last-place team in the AFC West once again.

Coming off an undefeated, national championship season at Indiana in which he took home the Heisman Trophy, Mendoza is now trying to turn around a team that hasn't won a playoff game since Jan. 2003. To finally achieve that goal, he'll need to make beautiful music with All-Pro tight end Brock Bowers while making do with a below-average receiving corps.

25. Cam Ward, Tennessee Titans

Ward has all the tools to be successful. His talent is undeniable, much of which contributed to him being the No. 1 pick in 2025. That said, he struggled on a horrific Titans team as a rookie (headlined by a pair of coaches, Brian Callahan and interim Mike McCoy), posting a league-worst -143.2 EPA.

However, Ward could quickly ascend. He has a veteran offensive coordinator, Brian Daboll, who developed Josh Allen from a struggling youngster to an All-Pro in Buffalo. Tennessee also added rookie receiver Carnell Tate with the No. 4 selection and slot receiver Wan'Dale Robinson in free agency, who came over from the Giants with Daboll. Factor in the gained experience of 17 starts last season, and Ward is a poised breakout candidate.

24. Tyler Shough, New Orleans Saints

Shough's rookie season was not overly impressive at first glance. He threw 10 touchdowns with six interceptions in 11 games (nine starts). He also had a 48.8 QBR and took 31 sacks, indicating a 26-year-old rookie who took a while to process his reads.

However, the improvement was stark over time. Over his final four outings, Shough led the Saints to a 3–1 mark while completing 70.6% of his attempts with five touchdowns and one pick and a 103.8 rating.

23. Jaxson Dart, New York Giants

Dart is one of the more fascinating quarterbacks to monitor in 2026. As a rookie last season, the Ole Miss product racked up 2,759 yards and 24 total touchdowns, all while being the main cog in New York's offense as receiver Malik Nabers and fellow rookie running back Cam Skattebo were out for the season with injuries.

Despite all of the challenges, Dart threw for 15 touchdowns in 14 appearances (12 starts) and now enters his first season under new coach John Harbaugh, albeit with Nabers coming off a torn ACL and not much else in the receiver room. If Dart can elevate despite the challenges, the Giants could be a playoff team.

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones is returning from a torn Achilles. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

22. Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts

From a current Giants quarterback to a former one, Jones is another question mark in a league full of them. After starting red-hot in Indianapolis last season with a 7–1 record with 13 touchdowns and three interceptions while posting an EPA of 77.1, he fell apart afterward.

Over his final five games before tearing his Achilles, Jones won a single game while tossing six touchdowns and five interceptions, fumbling seven times and posting a positive EPA twice and a negative EPA over that span. Now coming off a serious injury, can Jones rediscover his early-season magic?

21. Kyler Murray, Minnesota Vikings

At 28 years old, Murray is changing teams for the first time after being released by the Cardinals this offseason and now finds himself with a quarterback guru, coach Kevin O'Connell, and future Hall of Fame receiver, Justin Jefferson.

Perhaps the biggest question is Murray's health. He has played 30 games over the past three years due to a torn ACL and a foot injury. In 2024, the last time Murray played every game in a season, he threw 21 touchdowns and 11 interceptions while winning eight starts with a team in the brutally tough NFC West.

20. Aaron Rodgers, Pittsburgh Steelers

At this point in his career, Rodgers is a league-average quarterback with very little upside. Since leaving the Packers, Rodgers has played in 34 games. In that span, his teams are 16–18, and he's thrown for 300 or more yards once. He's thrown at least three touchdowns five times.

In 2025, Rodgers had the lowest air yards per completion (2.4) of all 33 qualified quarterbacks, while ranking 21st in on-target attempts (73.9%) despite consistently throwing underneath. His floor might be relatively high, but Rodgers's ceiling is very low.

19. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans

Stroud was viewed as a superstar in the making after his 4,000-yard, AFC South-winning rookie season in 2023. Now, with a generational defense behind him led by edge rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, he's viewed as the biggest question mark on a loaded roster.

Over the past two years, Stroud completed only 65% of his attempts, with 20 interceptions and 75 sacks taken. In each season of his career, Stroud's passing yardage and touchdown passes have decreased. For Houston to win the Super Bowl, and for Stroud to get a new contract, that trend must reverse.

18. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos

Nix is a good player who was perhaps a broken ankle away from reaching the Super Bowl in his second year. He's also a player who has thrown for more than 7.0 yards per attempt in 13 of his 34 regular-season games.

Last year, Nix led the NFL with 612 pass attempts while throwing for 3,931 yards. The last quarterback to pace the league in attempts and not throw for 4,000 yards? Sam Howell in 2023. No other quarterback has achieved that feat in the last 20 seasons. Now with Jaylen Waddle as a running mate for Courtland Sutton, maybe Nix can produce at a top-10 clip.

17. Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks

Darnold is one of the rare quarterbacks who won a Super Bowl and yet wasn't the driving force of his team. Much like Brad Johnson and Trent Dilfer, in years gone by, he's a respectable player who did enough to not crash a ship led by an excellent coach and a fantastic defense.

That said, Darnold deserves credit. After throwing for 4,319 yards and 35 touchdowns in Minnesota, Darnold signed with Seattle in free agency, threw for 4,048 yards and 25 touchdowns, and helped the Seahawks win their second Super Bowl. His finest moment came in the NFC title game, when Darnold passed for 346 yards and three touchdowns in a 31–27 triumph.

16. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers

Purdy is at a crossroads in his career. After throwing for career-highs in yardage (4,280) and touchdowns (31) in 2023 while leading the 49ers to the Super Bowl and earning Pro Bowl honors, he's yet to find similar success since.

Over the past two years, Purdy has played 24 total games and tossed 40 touchdowns with 22 interceptions. He's also seen his yards per completion dwindle each season, landing at 11.0 in 2025. Now with Mike Evans coming in as a big-bodied target to play opposite '24 first-round pick Ricky Pearsall, Purdy is attempting to vault himself back into the conversation as a top-10 quarterback.

15. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

What happened last season? Mayfield and the Buccaneers looked like an NFC contender early on, with Tampa Bay sitting 5–1 while the quarterback amassed 12 touchdown passes and one interception.

After the hot start, though, things fell apart. The Buccaneers went 3–8, and Mayfield threw 14 touchdowns with 11 interceptions, totaling 300 yards in a game just once. Now entering a contract year at age 31 and without the services of the departed Mike Evans, a critical season awaits Mayfield.

14. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

Hurts is a tough player to rank. Some believe the Eagles have won a Super Bowl and reached two during his tenure primarily because of a 2,000-yard rusher, Saquon Barkley, a ferocious defense and a pair of star receivers, DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown, to say nothing of an elite offensive line.

Still, not giving Hurts proper credit is a mistake. While he has never thrown for 4,000 yards in a season, he's totaled double-digit rushing touchdowns four times, and thrown at least 10 interceptions in a season only once. Since becoming a starter in 2021, Hurts has also posted a positive EPA each year, including +52.1 in '24.

13. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders

The main question is whether Daniels can stay healthy after playing only seven games last year. As a rookie, Daniels was durable for all 17 contests and earned Offensive Rookie of the Year honors, passing for 4,459 total yards and 31 touchdowns, helping the Commanders reach the NFC championship game for the first time since 1991.

Unfortunately, injuries kept Daniels sidelined for much of his sophomore season, and now he enters his third season with Terry McLaurin and little else on the perimeter. If Daniels is going to take Washington back to the playoffs, he'll need to elevate a group of receivers, including Luke McCaffrey, Treylon Burks and Jaylin Lane and Dyami Brown, none of whom have ever posted a 500-yard season.

12. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions

Since joining the Lions prior to the 2022 season, Goff has posted his second-best EPA (+79.1) and EPA per dropback (+0.13). However, both numbers dipped from '24, his final year with offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, and Detroit's season was disappointing, finishing 9–8 and missing the postseason.

Still, Goff is one of the league's best quarterbacks. He's thrown for at least 4,500 yards and 30 touchdowns in each of the past three years, the only man who can make that claim. In the prime of his career at 31 years old and surrounded by star receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams, tight end Sam LaPorta and running back Jahmyr Gibbs, don't expect a big drop in production any time soon.

Bears quarterback Caleb Williams excelled under first-year coach Ben Johnson last year. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

11. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears

Williams is a sneaky MVP candidate, and is perhaps the best bet for a young quarterback to become a superstar in 2026. Last season, the '24 No. 1 pick took a huge step, helping the Bears win 11 games and the NFC North while throwing for 3,942 yards and 27 touchdowns against seven interceptions.

That said, there are warning signs. Williams completed just 58.1% of his attempts, the lowest of anybody with 300 passes last season, while also posting a league-worst -6.9% CPOE. In the playoffs, Williams made some of the most magnificent throws you'll ever see, but also tossed five interceptions in two games.

For Williams, it's about eliminating the lows while maintaining the highs.

10. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

Lawrence has endured one of the more uneven starts to a career in recent memory. As a rookie, he suffered through the Urban Meyer debacle. Then, under Doug Pederson, the Jaguars reached the playoffs in 2022, and Lawrence earned Pro Bowl honors with 4,113 passing yards and 25 touchdowns.

However, after missing the playoffs the next two years, Liam Coen was brought in to replace Pederson. After a slow start, Lawrence caught fire with 15 touchdowns and one interception over the final six regular-season games, helping Jacksonville go 13–4 and win the AFC South. If that stretch is indicative of what's to come for Lawrence under Coen, he could become the elite quarterback everyone expected when he came out of Clemson.

9. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers

Love has been a starter for three years. Over that time, the Packers have reached the playoffs twice while Love has ranked sixth, 13th and third, in EPA, respectively. Despite never having a 1,000-yard receiver, Love has led the Green Bay attack to robust performances, checking in eighth, fifth and 10th over the years in yards per play.

Going into 2026, Love has less to work with. The offensive line lost left tackle Rasheed Walker and center Elgton Jenkins. The receiving corps is without Romeo Doubs, who left for the Patriots in free agency. Ultimately, there's going to be more on Love's plate to make the Packers a postseason team once more.

8. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

Prescott gets a ton of grief because the Cowboys haven't reached the Super Bowl (or an NFC championship game) under his watch, and there's some merit to that. However, he's also been the driving force behind much of their success since taking over in 2016.

Over the last three seasons, Prescott has twice thrown for more than 4,500 yards and at least 30 touchdowns, finishing second in the MVP race in 2023. With CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens on the perimeter, Prescott has arguably the best receiver tandem in the league. Expect another monster statistical season, and maybe a playoff win or two.

7. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

Much like Prescott, the individual numbers are there, but the team success is not. Herbert is entering his seventh year and has yet to win a playoff game, qualifying only three times. In those starts, he's thrown for two touchdowns and four interceptions while completing 54.7% of his attempts.

Entering 2026, the question is whether Herbert has another level to his game. He should have better protection with star tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater healthy after they combined to play only six games last season. When given time, he's one of the best, despite having Ladd McConkey and little else in the way of targets.

Finally, with run-heavy coach Jim Harbaugh and new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel, will Herbert have the opportunity to air the ball out as he did in his first three years? Those seasons, he averaged 4,696 yards and 31 touchdown passes. Over the past three, those numbers have dwindled to 3,577 yards and 23 scoring strikes.

6. Drake Maye, New England Patriots

Maye is coming off a breakout campaign, taking the Patriots on a shocking Super Bowl run while earning second-team All-Pro honors and finishing second in the MVP balloting. The second-year man finished with a league-leading +151.2 EPA and +9.1 CPOE, along with 4,394 yards and 31 touchdown passes.

Going into this year, the schedule will be much tougher, but he's also surrounded by better skill-position talent after New England signed receiver Romeo Doubs and traded for star wideout A.J. Brown. The offensive line, which allowed Maye to be sacked 47 times a season ago, also got better by adding first-round pick Caleb Lomu. While some statistical regression seems inevitable, Maye should continue his ascension as a top talent for years to come.

5. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

As always, will Burrow be healthy? Through six NFL seasons, he's been thwarted by injuries, playing 10 games or less in three campaigns. When healthy, Burrow has been a superstar, winning the passing crown in 2024, while also going to the Super Bowl (‘21) and then reaching a second consecutive AFC title game (‘22).

In a wide-open AFC, Cincinnati has a chance to make the playoffs for the first time in four years and then make noise once there if Burrow remains upright. With Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins on the outside, along with 1,000-yard rusher Chase Brown in the backfield, the Bengals' offense is poised to be among the best. If Burrow plays 17 games, he's a preseason favorite in the MVP race.

4. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

Jackson hasn't had the smoothest path the past few years. Since the start of the 2021 season, he's played only 14 or more games in a season twice. Still, a three-time first-team All-Pro and two-time MVP, few players are more dynamic and impactful than Jackson.

The looming question, beyond health, is whether he can continue running at the pace he exhibited earlier in his career. Jackson ran at least 133 times in each of his first four years, but hasn't hit that milestone in any of the past four. Last season, he ran just 67 times over 13 games. Without that facet of his game, the Ravens are a much different team, and Jackson is a much different player.

3. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

Stafford is coming off the best year of his career, winning MVP honors for the first time while leading the NFL with 4,707 yards and 46 touchdowns, while finishing second in EPA at +123.3. Now, he goes into 2026 as the favorite to win it all, surrounded by a host of weapons led by receivers Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, and running back Kyren Williams.

If there's any concern, it's Stafford's age and the durability that comes with it. At 38 years old, he is attempting to ward off Father Time for another season and win his second title, something which would vault him into a higher historical tier than the one he currently occupies.

Should Stafford and the Rams win the Super Bowl, he would have two championships and an MVP to his name. Throughout the Super Bowl era, the only other starting quarterbacks who could make those claims are Bart Starr, Terry Bradshaw, Joe Montana, John Elway, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Patrick Mahomes.

2. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills

Allen turned 30 years old in May, and he's squarely on the hot seat to avoid becoming one of the greatest quarterbacks to never win a title, joining Dan Marino, Warren Moon and Dan Fouts in that conversation. To get there, Allen now has a new coach, Joe Brady, to help lead the way.

While Brady was the offensive coordinator from 2024 to '25, Allen won MVP honors while amassing 79 total touchdowns, more than anybody else during that span. However, he's failed to throw for 3,800 yards in either season, a number Allen likely needs to eclipse if Buffalo is going to win its first Super Bowl. With the addition of DJ Moore this offseason, the Bills are hoping to have given Allen the final piece.

Perhaps the biggest talent in today's game, Allen has more pressure on him than anybody else to win a ring come February.

1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs

Mahomes is coming off his first major injury after tearing his left ACL in Week 15 against the Chargers. Despite being limited to 14 games, Mahomes still finished sixth in EPA at +65.2, directly ahead of Allen. Still, Kansas City went 6–11, missing the playoffs and falling short of the AFC title game for the first time since Mahomes became a starter in 2018.

This year, Mahomes will have Kenneth Walker III in the backfield to help shoulder the offensive burden. If Walker runs for 1,000 yards, it would be the first time a back has done it in Mahomes's career. In the passing game, Mahomes will be relying on Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy and tight end Travis Kelce to help him eclipse 4,000 yards passing, a threshold not reached since 2023.

Mahomes is a three-time champion. He's reached five Super Bowls and seven AFC title games, while also being a three-time Super Bowl MVP, a two-time NFL MVP, a two-time first-team All-Pro and has twice thrown for 5,000 yards. Still, he has something to prove in 2026 with a few passers gunning for the top spot.

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This article was originally published on www.si.com as SI's 2026 NFL Preseason QB Rankings: Reigning MVP Matthew Stafford Is No. 3.

This story was originally published July 17, 2026 at 3:00 AM.