Ranking chances of all 13 LIV Golfers at 126th US Open
The embattled LIV Golf league has 13 players in this week’s U.S. Open field, including four former winners. We rank each of them and analyze their chances of winning at Shinnecock Hills.
PETER UIHLEIN (+150000 at DraftKings)
Qualified By: Final Qualifying
Best U.S. Open Finish: T48 (2018 at Shinnecock Hills)
Analysis: A past U.S. Amateur champion, Uihlein earned medalist honors during final qualifying at the Dallas Athletic Club. It’s his first spot in a major field since 2018, when he tied for 48th at Shinnecock. Uihlein is 19th in the LIV Golf standings and hasn’t finished better than 30th in the league’s past seven events that include only 57 golfers.
CALEB SURRATT (+65000)
Qualified By: Final Qualifying
Best U.S. Open Finish: Major debut
Analysis: This is Surratt’s major debut after surviving a 6-for-1 in final qualifying, and his best result so far as a LIV rookie is T12 in Virginia. Just 22 years old, he knows Shinnecock is going to provide the ultimate test.
“Win or lose, you always want to get better,” Surratt said. “But that’s an after-the-fact thing. I’m there to do my deal, do my best, prepare correctly and play as well as I can the whole week.”
GRAEME MCDOWELL (+275000)
Qualified By: Final Qualifying
Best U.S. Open Finish: 1st (2010 at Pebble Beach)
Analysis: The former U.S. Open champion has been trying to qualify for the field since 2021 and finally did so this year. A notorious grinder, it was a significant achievement for McDowell. That doesn’t disguise the fact that he hasn’t competed outside of LIV in 2026, having fallen to 950th in the world rankings while posting only one top-10 finish this year.
LAURIE CANTER (+90000)
Qualified By: Top two players in the 2025 Race to Dubai on the DP World Tour, not otherwise exempt.
Best U.S. Open Finish: T55 (2025 at Oakmont)
Analysis: Canter’s decision to turn down a PGA Tour card to re-sign with LIV this year hasn’t paid many returns on the course yet. He’s 42nd in the points standings with only two top-20 results through nine events. Canter has plummeted to 151st in the Official World Golf Ranking since points are only awarded to the top-10 finishers in LIV events -- of which he has none -- and he didn’t qualify for the first two majors of the year.
CARLOS ORTIZ (+43000)
Qualified By: Top 10 scorers and ties from 2025 U.S. Open.
Best U.S. Open Finish: T4 (2025 at Oakmont)
Analysis: Ortiz was in contention on Sunday last year before settling for a T4 for easily his best result in 12 career majors. The 35-year-old has never made the cut at the Masters or The Open and his best finish at the PGA was a T55 five years ago. Ortiz sits 25th in the LIV standings while producing only two top-10 results in 2026.
LUCAS HERBERT (+24000)
Qualified By: Top 3 players in the LIV Golf Individual Standings not otherwise exempt as of May 18, 2026.
Best U.S. Open Finish: T31 (2020 at Winged Foot)
Analysis: Herbert claimed one of the two spots available to LIV players based on the season-long points race. He claimed his first LIV title with a four-shot win at Virginia and followed it with a T8 in Korea. Herbert will be making just his fourth U.S. Open start, and the 30-year-old Australian’s best major finish to date was a T13 at the 2022 PGA.
DAVID PUIG (+11000)
Qualified By: Top 60 in points in the Official World Golf Ranking as of May 18, 2026.
Best U.S. Open Finish: T39 (2023 at Los Angeles CC)
Analysis: Puig made the cut at the PGA Championship and finished T18 after carding 71-70 over the weekend for his best result in a major. The 24-year-old Spaniard is coming off a T5 at Andalucia and also finished runner-up to Jon Rahm in Mexico City earlier this year. Puig has plenty of game, but precious little major experience, having never played in the Masters and failing to reach the weekend at The Open in 2024.
DUSTIN JOHNSON (+19500)
Qualified By: Top 3 players in the LIV Golf Individual Standings not otherwise exempt as of May 18, 2026.
Best U.S. Open Finish: 1st (2016 at Oakmont)
Analysis: Johnson is one of eight among this list who competed at Shinnecock in 2018 and was the top finisher among them with his solo third. Johnson’s 10-year from his U.S. Open victory expires after this event. He does have consecutive top-5 finishes on LIV and has made the cut at the first two majors of the year, although he finished T33 at the Masters and T44 at the PGA.
“I know I can win on it,” Johnson said of Shinnecock. “Obviously it takes a lot of good golf to do it. I like the golf course. I think it sets up well for me.”
CAMERON SMITH (+13500)
Qualified By: Winner of 2022 Open Championship
Best U.S. Open Finish: 4th (2023 at Los Angeles CC)
Analysis: A T5 in Andalucia was Smith’s best LIV result to date in 2026 and he did snap his streak of six consecutive cuts missed at majors with a quiet T7 at the PGA Championship. There isn’t a heck of a lot more to inspire confidence that Smith will be a serious factor at Shinnecock. Along with a MC at the Masters, he has failed to crack the top-10 in six of nine LIV events in 2026.
JOAQUIN NIEMANN (+8000)
Qualified By: Top 3 player in 2025 LIV Golf Individual Standings who is not otherwise exempt.
Best U.S. Open Finish: T23 (2020 at Winged Foot)
Analysis: Niemann’s win in Korea was his eighth individual LIV title. His U.S. Open resume isn’t particularly strong with Winged Foot six years ago his best result to date, and Niemann missed the cut at Oakmont last year.
The 27-year-old Chilean possesses unquestioned talent, making his U.S. Open history a bit puzzling. Niemann’s best major finish to date was a T8 at last year’s PGA, and don’t be surprised if he is sniffing the first page of the leaderboard come the weekend.
BRYSON DECHAMBEAU (+3300)
Qualified By: 2020 and 2024 U.S. Open champion
Best U.S. Open Finish: 1st (2020 at Winged Foot; 2024 at Pinehurst)
Analysis: DeChambeau’s missed cuts at each of the first two majors of the year has been well chronicled, but he can never be discounted at the U.S. Open (despite his MC in 2025). He is attempting to become only the seventh player to win the event three times and his prodigious length and ability to hit short irons into very difficult greens is a dangerous combo.
Along with a pair of LIV wins this season, DeChambeau also has a trio of third-place finishes. He helped his team win in Korea, where he said he used Gemini to help fix his swing.
“I’ve always felt like my game was prepped for the U.S. Open for some reason,” said the Crushers GC captain. “Ever since I was a kid, my ball-striking was really good. I putted well on fast greens, slopey greens. Felt like it was the most open and fair championship for tough golf out here. The ones that I won, I feel like that was the case, at Winged Foot and Pinehurst.”
TYRRELL HATTON (+4400)
Qualified By: Lowest 10 scorers and ties from 2025 U.S. Open
Best U.S. Open Finish: T4 (2025 at Oakmont)
Analysis: Along with being LIV’s top finisher at the Masters, Hatton is coming off a wire-to-wire win at LIV Golf Analucia. He also tied for sixth at Shinnecock in 2018. Hatton tackled a tough Oakmont course to finish T4 last year, and proved at Augusta in April that he has the fortitude to go low on Sunday at a major.
JON RAHM (+1175)
Qualified By: Winner of 2021 U.S. Open
Best U.S. Open Finish: 1st (2021 at Torrey Pines)
Analysis: Rahm is back inside the top 10 in the world courtesy of his T2 at the PGA Championship and taking advantage of the world ranking points now afforded to LIV players. He finished T7 at last year’s U.S. Open and arrives in New York in very solid form. He has a pair of wins to go with four runner-ups on LIV this year, including at Andalucia, and leads the individual points race.
Since his win in 2021, Rahm has gone T12, T10 and T7 in three U.S. Open starts, having missed the 2024 event due to injury.
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This story was originally published June 17, 2026 at 11:54 AM.