Predictions: Merced-area teams must raise level of play to stick around in playoffs

As teams advance in the playoffs, the margin for error shrinks each week as the level of competition increases.

Mistakes a team like Merced High School can make against teams like Buhach Colony, Golden Valley and even last week against Beyer could easily cost the Bears a win going forward.

The same goes for every area team left in the playoffs.

You help your chances a lot by cleaning up your game. No turnovers, no dropped snaps, no penalties, no missed blocks or missed tackles. If you want to survive and advance, you have to step up your game.

In some instances, it still may not be enough. Sometimes, the other team is just better, and if two teams played 100 times, the same team would win every time.

I don’t think that’s the case with any of our teams this week. Even Los Banos, probably our biggest underdog this week, could squeak out a win against Division IV top seed Manteca if just about everything goes the Tigers’ way.

We enter the second round of the playoffs with five local teams remaining. Who will be left standing?

Let’s find out:

Sac-Joaquin Section

Division III quarterfinals

Merced (8-3) at Del Campo-Fair Oaks (6-5) – This is one of two rematches this week. The Bears opened the season with a 26-21 loss to the Cougars. The question is, has Merced improved more than Del Campo from August to November?

There are reasons to believe the Bears can win the rematch Friday. Merced entered the season with questions up front on offense and played Del Campo without right tackle Clifford Johnson. The Bears’ offensive line is definitely better, but size has given the Merced running game issues. Examples A and B would be the losses to Del Campo and Turlock.

Merced also had two sophomores playing their first game at the varsity level in Dhameer Warren and Xavier Stewart, and both have been key contributors this season.

Del Campo has the advantage of playing at home again and the confidence from already beating Merced. The Cougars also have a big line and a 2,000-yard running back in Greg Cabral.

The difference could be the Bears’ defense and special teams. Merced has been putting considerable pressure on quarterbacks with its front seven, including bringing in wide receiver Stephen Williams to rush the edge on passing downs. Ulonzo Gilliam has also returned punts for touchdowns in the last two games.

Prediction: Merced

Division IV semifinals

Los Banos (8-3) at Manteca (10-1) – The Tigers usually have the size advantage. That won’t be the case against the big, physical Buffaloes on Friday.

Los Banos has relied on its defense all season, and that unit will have to be at its best against a balanced Manteca offense. The Tigers’ best chance for an upset is a low-scoring slugfest. Los Banos must win the field-position battle and hope to be in the game late.

The Tigers’ offense has been playing well late in the season but must take care of the ball. Los Banos can’t afford to set up the Manteca offense with short fields.

The Buffaloes still may be just too big of a road block for Los Banos.

Prediction: Manteca

Division VII championship

Brookside Christian (7-4) vs. Stone Ridge Christian (9-2) at Bear Creek – Stone Ridge Christian defeated Brookside Christian 33-26 on the road in their first matchup this season. So SRC should win easily at a neutral field in Saturday’s rematch, right?

Not so fast.

Brookside Christian has since added a transfer from Lincoln High in Stockton by the name of Reuben Lee. In six games, the junior has rushed for 1,419 yards and 17 touchdowns. He’s topped 200 yards in all six games and is averaging 20.6 yards per carry.

Add him to an offense that includes quarterback Quincy Glasper, who has thrown for 2,771 yards and 34 touchdowns, and a receiver like Justin Williams, who has 61 catches for 1,159 yards and 17 touchdowns, and you have a very potent offense.

Stone Ridge Christian has the type of offense to counter with its power running game led by Jonathan Collazo (1,376 yards, 21 touchdowns). To win a third consecutive championship, the Knights’ best bet is to play keep-away from Brookside Christian’s offense with long drives that chew up the clock.

Prediction: Brookside Christian

Central Section

Division IV quarterfinals

Madera South (4-7) at Chowchilla (8-1) – The Redskins had their third bye of the season last week as the No. 3 seed. Chowchilla’s secondary will be tested by Stallions quarterback Jonah Johnson.

The Redskins’ defense has led the way all season, including Asa Shields and his seven interceptions.

Madera South has scored 112 points in the last two games, including 63 in last week’s upset of Liberty.

Like Stone Ridge Christian, Chowchilla has the offense to keep opposing offenses off the field with its rushing attack. The Redskins have averaged 300.0 yards on the ground per game. Leading the way is Ronnie Reyes, who has run for 784 yards and 12 touchdowns.

Prediction: Chowchilla

Division V quarterfinals

Yosemite (8-3) at Dos Palos (7-4) – Both teams used to play each other annually when they were in the North Sequoia League. The Broncos enter this matchup with four consecutive shutouts.

Dos Palos has been pounding the ball on the ground, including Tre Walker’s 179 yards and three touchdowns in last week’s 48-0 win over Kern Valley.

The Broncos are on a roll.

Predicition: Dos Palos

Last week: 5-1. Year to date: 114-22 (.838).

This story was originally published November 16, 2016 at 3:32 PM with the headline "Predictions: Merced-area teams must raise level of play to stick around in playoffs."