Coronavius: Merced County gets failing grade on social distancing, report says
Coronavirus cases in Merced County held steady at 10 infected individuals Tuesday after reaching double digits Monday, according to a news release by the County Department of Public Health. The county updated the reported number of community spread cases from one to two infections.
Also Tuesday, it was revealed that Merced County was handed a “D” grade and ranked near the bottom of California counties for preventative coronavirus social distancing efforts, according to data company Unacast.
County Public Health Officer Dr. Kenneth Bird presented this information and other updates on the virus during the Board of Supervisors meeting Tuesday.
Later, the website updated Merced County’s status from a “D” grade to “F.”
“In Merced County at this time, social distancing is only about 10-15% less than it had been without those (stay-at-home) orders, and it should be closer to 40%,” Bird said.
The failing grade is based on GPS data measuring the local change in average mobility based on distance traveled. Merced County lags behind the state of California.
California had received an overall “A” grade for social distancing, although the website later downgrade that to a “C.”
Social distancing aims to reduce and spread out COVID-19 cases to avoid overwhelming the health system. The measures are extreme, but must be properly complied with to effectively mitigate the global pandemic’s spread, Bird said.
“Up until last week, we were in what we call containment . . . we knew exactly where all our (coronavirus) cases were and had them isolated,” Bird said. “We are no longer in that containment and have moved to a new phase that does absolutely require mitigation.”
On Monday, the Merced County Sheriff’s Office said it will enforce Gov. Gavin Newsom’s stay-at-home order. Those who ignore social distancing by gathering in large groups may be served a citation. Nonessential businesses continuing to operate may receive the same, and face losing their business license, according to the Sheriff’s Office.
“We have mitigation efforts in place,” Bird said. “I think the concern is that people aren’t taking it seriously.”
Healthcare capacity
Bird told the Sun-Star that Merced County’s current capacity is 226 hospital beds, 24 ICU beds and 26 ventilators.
“The prediction is, over the next months, well over half of us will be infected,” Bird said. “It will drastically impact our hospitals, the equipment they have and their healthcare personnel,” he added.
Health system resources in Merced County fall “far, far under even the best predictions on the modeling,” Bird said.
Projections with social contact reduction remaining around the 20% mark show Merced County would need 1,018 hospital beds, 389 ICU beds and 286 ventilators, Bird said. Cases and deaths would peak around June 3.
The percentage means the decrease in normal social contact following stay-at-home orders.
But reducing social contact by 40% would lessen those numbers to just 337 hospital beds, 124 ICU beds and 89 ventilators. The peak would occur around June 15, allowing the health system to handle fewer cases over more time.
These predictions still exceed current hospital resources, but bring numbers far closer to achievable progress.
Bird said the Merced County Office of Emergency Services is reaching out to nearby counties for beds, ICU equipment and ventilators. University Surgical Center may have available ventilators, too.
While many asymptomatic individuals won’t realize they’re sick, predictions say a significant portion of those with symptoms will become ill enough to require hospitalization, Bird said. Extensive hospital resources and personnel will be required to care for these individuals.
Merced County coronavirus demographics
Bird also gave new insight into the Merced County’s 10 confirmed coronavirus cases, eight of which were contracted following travel.
The first case acquired in the community was confirmed recently.
“One individual was exposed to the virus within our county, and we don’t know where that exposure came from,” Bird said before the second case of community transmission was confirmed later Tuesday.
The county’s east side accounts for most cases at 70% (seven infections). An equal number of five male and five female individuals have the disease. The county’s west side accounted for 30 percent of coronavirus cases (three infections).
Infected individuals range in age from 28 to 93. Half are age 18 to 45, 20% are age 46 to 65 and 30% are over age 65.
Two mobile testing sites were officially opened Monday after a “soft opening” last week. One site is on the county’s east side and the other on the west, with the specific location disclosed once patients secure an appointment through their provider and public health.
The public can call (209) 381-1180 for more information in English and Spanish. The county is working on translating information into Hmong.
This story was originally published March 31, 2020 at 6:10 PM.
