Merced’s top doctor warns of possible spring COVID surge if vaccinations remain low
It’s been 439 days since Merced County’s first COVID-19 case was confirmed in March of 2020.
More than 32,000 people who call the Merced region home have contracted the disease since then. Almost 500 have died.
But the county’s COVID-19 dashboard shows that, since the start of the new year, the spread of new cases has steadily declined. And Merced County — along with half of the state’s population — has reached the orange tier of California’s color-coded reopening plan, a Blueprint for a Safer Economy.
If the county continues to improve, it will ascend into the most lenient reopening tiers and loosen more state-mandated business restrictions. Plus, Gov. Gavin Newsom’s plan to slash COVID-19 limitations and reopen the economy statewide is slated to go into effect in less than two weeks on June 15.
Despite the pandemic’s slowing pace, Merced County’s top public health official warns that the respite might not last.
Driving the concerns is how far Merced County still lags behind the state in terms of vaccinated residents.
California has been lauded for having surpassed 50% of residents fully vaccinated against COVID-19. Merced County has not yet reached 25%.
That’s among the lowest county vaccination rates in the state, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data.
“We’re concerned about a fall surge,” said Merced County Public Health Director Dr. Rebecca Nanyonjo-Kemp. “The only thing that will allow for us to have some level of satisfaction is if we have a herd immunity rate.” Herd immunity refers to the percentage of a population immune to infection so that it is no longer spreads.
The exact immunity percentage needed — and whether the U.S. will even reach it — has been debated, but estimates mainly range from 70% to 90%. Regardless, healthcare officials say getting to a high percentage of community vaccinations effectively prevents COVID-19-caused hospitalizations, deaths, and new mutations.
Why are so few Merced County residents vaccinated?
Logistic hurdles with the state’s vaccine rollout and vaccine hesitancy are both to blame for the slow vaccination of Merced County against COVID-19, local health experts say.
When vaccinations began in California, Merced County received the third-lowest allocation of doses in the state. Merced County Department of Public Health officials said the short supply forced the region into a slower start.
Then, once an adequate supply of vaccines became available, overblown and inaccurate portrayals of the Johnson and Johnson vaccine pause in the media and online exacerbated fears, leading to increased vaccine hesitancy, County Public Health officials say.
The Johnson and Johnson vaccine has been deemed safe, and its rollout resumed. But the fear elicited was especially harmful to the Merced region, Nanyonjo-Kemp said.
The one-dose vaccine is significantly more convenient to deploy in rural counties like Merced, where individuals are difficult to reach for a second shot or may not have transportation or the time to make a second appointment, she said.
“The primary source of what was going to be distributed was no longer available. I think it’s just that bait-and-switch where people got fed up,” Nanyonjo-Kemp said of the Johnson and Johnson pause. “I know that there is a fatigue.”
Why getting vaccinations up in Merced County matters
Merced and other counties with low vaccination rates are not just regional concerns but are worrying to state leadership as well, Nanyonjo-Kemp said. The county is working alongside the state and targeting its outreach to prioritize vaccinating communities not yet protected against the virus, she said.
Merced County’s low vaccination rate could leave the area more vulnerable to COVID-19 surges and outbreaks compared to higher vaccinated parts of the state.
Nanyonjo-Kemp said that she is proud that Merced County now occupies the orange reopening tier alongside much of the state. Merced was the last county in the state to climb out of the strictest purple tier.
Still, given the recent Memorial Day holiday, Nanyonjo-Kemp said it’s possible that an uptick in cases could be seen soon due to holiday gatherings.
Vaccines have been shown to effectively curtail COVID-19-caused hospitalizations, deaths, and new mutations. In turn, that helps ease potential strains on the local healthcare system, preventing hospitals from becoming overburdened with patients to treat.
Nanyonjo-Kemp said preventing another surge would free up resources and allow the county a moment of rest to focus on recovering from the pandemic.
“Do not become complacent. We only have so many resources in our small county of Merced. We can’t afford to think that (the pandemic) is done,” Nanyonjo-Kemp said. “I beg people to get the vaccine.”
