Are Merced County jobs back to normal, nearly 2 years after COVID began? What the numbers say
Merced County closed out 2021 with more people employed than when the year began, but joblessness has yet to fall to lows seen before the COVID-19 pandemic upended the economy.
The economic strides made in Merced County since COVID-19 took hold of the world in 2020 show how the local economy adapted to the virus, but has yet to fully shake off its effects.
The county’s 8.2% unemployment rate in December represented one of the lowest percentages seen in 2021, according to California Employment Development Department numbers released last week. Joblessness in 2021 began at 11.6% in January — the highest rate all year.
Average unemployment throughout 2021 came to 9.8% locally. That’s down from 2020’s average of 12.2%, but still up from 2019’s pre-pandemic average of 8.2%.
“It is hopeful that we will continue to see employment growth across the county,” said EDD Labor Market Analyst Steven Gutierrez, noting that economists are predicting a more permanent recovery in 2022. “We shall see,” he added as a caveat.
Although December unemployment ascended slightly from November, that shift is likely due in part to predictable seasonal labor changes.
The Valley, as an agricultural hub, typically sees losses in farm-related jobs that raise unemployment during the winter months, according to labor experts. “This is normal during the winter season,” Gutierrez said.
The farming industry experienced the biggest cut between November and December, down by nearly 2,000 jobs, EDD numbers showed. Non-farm jobs decreased by only 200.
Ultimately, Merced County gained 2,500 jobs across all industries between the end of 2020 and 2021.
The government sector saw the largest boost with 1,300 jobs, likely due in part to increasing education-related jobs coming back with the return of in-person classes to schools. Leisure and hospitality ranked second, gaining 1,000 jobs.
In late 2019, Merced County was on an upswing at around 5.5% unemployment — with more people employed than in nearly 30 years. That changed drastically during the early days of the pandemic, when the county’s joblessness soared up to nearly 19%, marking the highest monthly figure in years. Even at 2021’s worst points, local unemployment never reached so high.
But the lack of recovery to 2019 employment levels stands as evidence of the persistent grip that the virus continues to have on jobs locally and statewide.
The state of the job market is similar across the Valley, where the highly contagious omicron variant continues to spur uncertainty in both daily life and the economy.
EDD numbers for neighboring counties showed:
- Fresno County: 8.8% average unemployment throughout 2021, down from 11.3% in 2020, but above the pre-pandemic rate of 7.4% in 2019.
- Kings County: 9.2% average in 2021, down from 11.6% in 2020, but above the pre-pandemic rate of 8.0% in 2019.
- Madera County: 8.4% in 2021, down from 10.8% in 2020, but above the pre-pandemic rate of 7.0% in 2019.
- Tulare County: 10.3% in 2021, down from 13.3% in 2020, but above the pre-pandemic rate of 9.9% in 2019.
Valley counties continue to present a pattern of higher unemployment than statewide averages. California’s average monthly unemployment rate in 2021 was 7.3%, lower than any Valley county, and lower than the 10.5% reported for 2020.
The year-over change accounted for 879,800 jobs gained statewide between December 2020 and 2021. Still, the statewide rate remains several percentage points above the three-decade low of 4.2% registered in 2019, before the coronavirus pandemic struck.
